NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 4 2018

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 4 (Sun.-Mon.)

Welcome to the Week 4 edition of the NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where there may be some mispriced players across Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft in favorable matchups.

Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and potentially for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup. Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft).  However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as a “XYZ site(s) special”.
• These players are but a sampling of who I feel are some of the best values at each position that week. However, with so many skills players in the NFL, there are certainly others worth considering, especially as late-breaking injury news comes out Sunday morning. Therefore, feel free to utilize this piece as a good guide for where some of the most prominent value lies, but not as an exhaustive list.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 4 slates!

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 4 (Sun.-Mon.) Quarterbacks

Andy Dalton, CIN at ATL- Yahoo ($29)/ FanDuel ($7,400)/ DraftKings ($5,400)/ FantasyDraft ($11,400)

The Bengals-Falcons game boasts the highest projected total of the week, yet Dalton remains very affordably priced in what sets up as a favorable matchup due to the slew of injuries that Atlanta has suffered up the middle of their defense.

The Falcons come in allowing opposing QBs to complete a whopping 70.3 percent of their throws, and they’ve allowed the fourth-most DraftKings (28.4) and FanDuel (26.2) points per game to the position. Dalton has thrown multiple touchdowns in each of his first three contests and has upped his yardage totals in each as well. The development of Tyler Boyd as a secondary option has certainly done wonders for the balance of the offense, and Giovani Bernard‘s elite pass-catching skills should serve as a nice supplement to Dalton’s fantasy production against a Falcons team that’s already allowed an NFL-high 36 receptions through three games.

Ryan Tannehill, MIA at NE- Yahoo ($26)/ FanDuel ($6,800)/ DraftKings ($5,500)/ FantasyDraft ($10,800)

Tannehill doesn’t ever seem to get much hype in DFS circles, but he’s priced very reasonably in Week 4 for a player who’s posted a 7:2 TD:INT through three games and played an integral part in his team’s undefeated record. Moreover, Tannehill always brings some nice rushing upside, as most recently evidenced by his 70 yards on the ground over the last two games. He also has DeVante Parker back in the fold, while the likes of Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant are showing excellent promise.

The Patriots have had well-publicized issues on both sides of the ball thus far this season, and they come in tied with several teams for third-most touchdown passes allowed (seven) through three games, while also allowing the fourth-most rushing yards (85) to the quarterback position. They’ve also yielded a healthy 22.7 DraftKings/ FantasyDraft and 21.4 FanDuel/Yahoo points per game to QBs, making them an inviting target in what would be a statement game for Miami if they managed to pull out a win.

Baker Mayfield, CLE at OAK– Yahoo ($25)/ FanDuel ($6,900)/ DraftKings ($5,300)/ FantasyDraft ($10,900)

Just as he did in preseason, Mayfield looked right in his element when thrown into the fire in Week 3 against the Jets, leading the Browns to their first win in over a year. The rookie was rewarded for that performance by being named the starter in Week 4, and he’ll draw an enticing matchup that could result in plenty of production if he keeps up his trademark gun-slinging ways.

The Raiders come into Week 4 having allowed a 6:1 TD:INT to quarterbacks over the first three weeks, and nearly six yards per rushing attempt to the position as well. The latter number has relevance when considering Mayfield, factoring in his mobility. Oakland is allowing 19.6 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks thus far, and they’ve only managed to get to the quarterback on three occasions.

Mayfield has a plethora of weapons of his disposal despite the recent exit of Josh Gordon, and those pieces should become exponentionally more dangerous with Mayfield at the controls.

FanDuel-DraftKings special:

Case Keenum, DEN vs. KC- FanDuel ($6,500)/ DraftKings ($5,600)

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 4 (Sun.-Mon.) Running Backs

Tevin Coleman, ATL vs. CIN- Yahoo ($23)/ FanDuel ($7,200)/ DraftKings ($5,900)/ FantasyDraft ($11,000)

Coleman’s touches continue to be somewhat capped, but given his price tag and the expected high-scoring contest he’ll be playing in this week, he’s certainly worth the investment if you’re looking for some savings off higher-priced RBs.

Coleman will once again serve as the lead back in Week 4 with Devonta Freeman sitting at least one more game, meaning he should be due for at least 15 rushing touches and handful of more opportunities through the air. The Bengals are certainly an enticing target, as they’ve allowed a whopping 28.1 DraftKings and 23.6 FanDuel/FantasyDraft/Yahoo fantasy points per game to the  position, along with 123.7 rushing yards per contest overall.

Giovani Bernard, CIN at ATL- Yahoo ($20)/ FanDuel ($6,400)/ DraftKings ($6,300)/ FantasyDraft ($11,500)

As alluded to earlier in Dalton’s entry, the Falcons are the most vulnerable team in the NFL to pass-catching backs, having already yielded an eye-popping 36 receptions through three weeks. They’ve allowed the third-most DraftKings (37.4) and fourth-most FanDuel (29.4) fantasy points to the position, leaving Bernard poised for a potentially handsome return in the projected high-scoring battle.

Bernard was dealing with a thigh injury earlier in the week, but he was off the injury report by Friday, so health won’t be a concern. Taking the reins of the lead-back role in Week 3, Bernard finished with a total of 17 touches, and he saw nine targets in the passing game overall. With no threat to his playing time behind him at present, he should be in for at least that many in a three-down role Sunday.

Kerryon Johnson, DET at DAL- Yahoo ($18)/ FanDuel ($5,700)/ DraftKings ($4,400)/ FantasyDraft ($8,700)

Johnson provided a tangible reminder of the talent gap between him and LeGarrette Blount in the Sunday night win over the Patriots in Week 3, finishing with 101 rushing yards on just 16 carries. For the first time in quite a while, Detroit has a viable rushing threat, and he should be primed for a majority of carries moving forward.

The Sean Lee-less Cowboys shape up as just a good a target as any, considering their vulnerabilities without the star linebacker in the lineup. Dallas is allowing 25.7 DraftKings and 20.4 FanDuel fantasy points to the running back position through the first three weeks, and Johnson’s involvement in both the running and passing game should keep him on the field plenty in the Week 4 road matchup.

ALSO CONSIDER:

Sony Michel, NE vs. MIA- Yahoo ($14)/ FanDuel ($5,900)/ DraftKings ($4,500)/ FantasyDraft ($9,500)

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 4 (Sun.-Mon.) Wide Receivers

Mike Williams, LAC vs. SF- Yahoo ($21)/ FanDuel ($6,300)/ DraftKings ($4,500)/ FantasyDraft ($10,300)

Both Keenan Allen (knee, tooth) and Travis Benjamin (foot) are questionable for Sunday’s contest, meaning Williams could potentially serve as a starter if the former misses. At worst, he figures to handle No. 3 duties even if Benjamin suits up, a role that could lead to a strong return on his modest prices given the matchup.

The 49ers have allowed five receiving touchdowns to wideouts in the early going, along with 44.1 DraftKings points and 35.8 FanDuel points per contest. They’ll be further weakened in Week 4, as Richard Sherman has already been ruled out with a calf injury, while strong safety Jaquiski Tartt is doubtful due to a shoulder issue. Williams’ red-zone prowess and overall talent has the potential to easily overpower the remaining members of the San Francisco secondary, especially if he sees increased snaps.

Sterling Shepard, NYG vs. NO- Yahoo ($19)/ FanDuel ($6,200)/ DraftKings ($4,900)/ FantasyDraft ($9,700)

Shepard would be appealing based solely on price in Week 4, but the fact Evan Engram (knee) will miss the contest enhances his value even further. The second-year receiver turned seven targets into six catches for 80 yards in Week 3 against the Texans, and he could be poised for double-digit looks in what could turn into a shootout against the Saints in Week 4.

New Orleans has been victimized in the secondary over the first three games, giving up the most yards (843) and touchdowns (nine) to wide receivers, along with the most DraftKings (66.3) and FanDuel (55.3) points to the position. Shepard should avoid the coverage of Marshon Lattimore as well, as the Saints’ best corner is likely to be shadowing Odell Beckham for most of the afternoon.

Tyler Boyd, CIN at ATL- Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($5,800)/ DraftKings ($4,600)/ FantasyDraft ($10,200)

Boyd has been seeing plenty of action over the last two weeks in particular, logging over 50 snaps in each game, as well as 16 combined targets. He’s yet another player who’s even more appealing in Week 4 due to matchup and expected game script, as the Bengals-Falcons game has the second-highest total of the week and Cincinnati’s implied total has gone up over three points since the open.

The Falcons have allowed five touchdowns to receivers over the first three games, along with 40.7 DraftKings points and 33.1 FanDuel points to the position. Desmond Trufant should spend most of his time on A.J. Green, which should leave Boyd on Robert Alford a good deal of the time. While Alford is talented in his own right, Andy Dalton is likely to look Boyd’s way plenty while avoiding Trufant whenever the passing windows look especially tight. Additionally, the decimated nature of the Atlanta safety position certainly creates favorable conditions for Boyd to get deep on at least a couple of occasions during the game.

ALSO CONSIDER:

Antonio Callaway, CLE at OAK- Yahoo ($14)/ FanDuel ($4,500)/ DraftKings ($4,300)/ FantasyDraft ($8,900)

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 4 (Sun.-Mon.) Tight Ends/Team Defenses

Tight Ends

Jared Cook, OAK vs. CLE- Yahoo ($17)/ FanDuel ($5,400)/ DraftKings ($4,100)/ FantasyDraft ($8,000)

Cook has been a favorite of Derek Carr‘s over the first three games, seeing 22 targets along the way and posting no less than four receptions. The veteran tight end has shown some nice downfield chops as well, already hauling in six receptions of more than 20 yards. Cook is seeing the playing time as well, having logged at least 50 snaps in each game thus far, including two games with over 60.

George Kittle, SF at LAC- Yahoo ($17)/ FanDuel ($5,700)/ DraftKings ($4,200)/ FantasyDraft ($7,600)

Kittle will be playing with old college teammate C.J. Beathard under center in Week 4, and he could be one of the second-year quarterback’s favorite targets Sunday. Kittle already has a pair of five-catch efforts over the first three games, having seen seven and nine targets, respectively, in those contests. Although the Chargers have been very effective against tight ends over the first three weeks, Kittle’s ability to essentially function as a wide receiver and get down the seam always gives him plenty of tournament upside, especially if he continues to see the same amount of targets from Beathard as he was from Jimmy Garoppolo.

Team Defense

Arizona Cardinals (vs. Seattle Seahawks)- Yahoo $14)/ FanDuel ($4,000)/ DraftKings ($2,600)/ FantasyDraft ($5,000)

The Cardinals have already notched eight sacks through the first three games, while Russell Wilson has already been sacked an NFL-high 14 times. Arizona should be able to take an aggressive approach against Seattle, considering Patrick Peterson‘s ability to shadow Doug Baldwin and the team’s non-descript rushing attack. The Cardinals are typically a more effective defense at home as well, and Wilson’s tendency to hold on to the ball too long could result in at least a strip-sack or two that in turn lead to six points the other way.

DraftKings-only Special:

Chicago Bears (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)- $2,600

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