DraftKings Early CFB picks October 13: Stack Texas/Baylor

DraftKings gives us a nice 10 game selection again from the early and afternoon Saturday games. There are no FCS teams, though Tennessee sometimes resembles one. There is also only two Big 12(10) game this week, so we are going to have to work for points. Don’t worry. They threw us a bone with UCF.

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My stack of Ehlinger and Kyler Murray cashed in big time last Saturday afternoon, but one of my value RB’s failed, so it wasn’t as good as I hoped. Anytime we come out ahead, I cant complain though!

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Top Tier:

McKenzie Milton ($10,400): Last week we saw what Milton’s floor looks like. More accurately, it’s what happens when someone besides Milton scores touchdowns. Milton was under 20 DraftKings points against SMU, and honestly, this is the risk any time he is on the field. UCF is an overwhelming favorite in every game left except for USF, and if Milton doesn’t score as much as usual, you could be out in the cold. That said, Milton is one of the very few that can crack 50 DraftKings points in any given game.

Trace McSorley ($9,200): Minnesota has a solid defense, they just can’t move the ball. I’m still in no hurry to roster Haskins at his price. I would rather save the $900 and go with McSorley against a surprisingly porous Michigan State front. McSorley gouged Ohio State on the ground and was efficient through the air. He is in a sneaky spot for a big game against a big name.

Sam Ehlinger ($9,000): Kyler Murray went nuts on Baylor two weeks ago, and Ehlinger outdueled Murray head to head last week. We could see another 50 DraftKings points from Ehlinger here against a pretty bad Baylor defense. The only way Ehlinger comes up short here is if he’s still tired from running circles around Oklahoma’s poor defense last week.

Middle Tier:

Ian Book ($8,700): Virginia Tech was able to control Book on the ground, which sapped some of his value. Earlier this year, we saw McSorley gouge the Pitt D in a deluge in Pittsburgh. Book could annihilate this awful defense on a sunny day in South Bend.

Brady White ($7,800): White didn’t do much against UConn because he didn’t have to. UCF’s defensive shortcomings are overshadowed by how good the offense is. There is sneaky value here for White in what should be a pretty high scoring game. That said, White has only topped 20 DraftKings points twice so far this year. Those were against Mercer and Georgia State. There is potential for him to be a total bust as well.

Jake Browning ($7,100): Oregon’s defensive numbers aren’t as bad as usual. That still doesn’t mean that they are good. Browning is 52-77 for 707 yards with nine touchdowns and only one interception in his career against Oregon. He isn’t going to win you a GPP with those numbers, but they are solid for the price.

Bargain Shoppers:

Charlie Brewer ($6,500): Each week I’m shocked by how cheap Brewer is. No FBS team has held Brewer under 20 DraftKings points, which means he is getting 3x value at the very least. That’s enough to lead you to the cash line. We’ve seen Brewer top 30 twice as well. Texas’ defense is better than it was earlier in the season, but they still gave up chunk plays to Oklahoma athletes last week. Baylor’s athletes are at least as good as what Oklahoma can offer. There is a load of potential for Brewer here.

Jarrett Stidham ($6,000): Stidham has been a notch above horrible for most of the year, much like the rest of the Auburn offense. However, they get an easy practice against a poor Tennessee squad this week. If Stidham is ever going to turn it around this season, it will start here. Auburn could let him have a monster game to get his confidence up. They definitely need to.

Skylar Thompson ($5,600): Any time you have a QB that can run, they stick out on DraftKings. Thompson isn’t much of a passer, but Oklahoma State’s defense has had issues stopping anyone lately. Kansas State doesn’t have a ton of playmakers on offense, so expect Thompson to call his own number quite a lot in this one. This is pretty much like playing a running back that’s going to throw for 140 yards. Thompson is definitely worth the price here.

Top Tier:

Dexter Williams ($8,200): If you’ve read my stuff at any point, you know I’m a fan of Darrell Henderson. He is leading the nation in rushing, and it isn’t a fluke. That said, UCF has a pretty solid run defense. I would rather save the $1,300 and play Williams against one of the worst run defenses. Ian Book definitely added to the Notre Dame offense, but when Williams started two games ago, it became explosive. Williams has 64.8 DraftKings points in two games. Sign me up!

Trayveon Williams ($7,900): Williams had his best game of the season in the upset of Kentucky racking up 138 yards on the ground and 72 more through the air. The South Carolina defense looked better last week, but it is also worth noting that Missouri is mostly a passing team, something which South Carolina defends well. Their weakness is run defense, so expect another big game from Trayveon here.

Middle Tier:

Myles Gaskin ($7,200): Oregon’s run defense numbers are pretty strong this year, but Gaskin has gouged the Ducks for 475 yards over the past three years. Washington rode Gaskin more than they had previously this season against UCLA. He’s the kind of guy that needs touches to get going. I expect Washington to keep feeding him here.

Alex Barnes ($7,100): Barnes destroyed Baylor last week for 250 rushing yards and a whopping 50.2 DraftKings points. Oklahoma State will provide slightly more resistance, but Kansas State is built to run you over. Barnes is a big part of that, and could be in for another strong game here.

Bargain Shoppers:

Keaontay Ingram ($5,500): We just saw Baylor give up almost 400 yards rushing to Kansas State, and Barnes had 250 of those. Tre Watson will get some run too, but he only carried six times against Oklahoma. Ingram appears to be the lead back now, and he is going to gouge Baylor. How bad is Baylor’s run D? I’m not opposed to stacking Ingram, Ehlinger, and Watson in this one.

Trestan Ebner ($4,700): We are used to seeing Baylor with freakish athletes at RB, but this isn’t one of those year unless you count Hurd as a back. Since you can’t play him there, he isn’t for DraftKings purposes. Ebner had his first 100 yard game of his career, and appears to have separated himself from the pool of Baylor running backs. Oklahoma had modest success running against Texas, but that isn’t where Baylor will do a bulk of the damage. This play is more about Enber’s volume relative to price.

Top Tier:

Parris Campbell ($7,400): The only thing turning me off of Haskins is his price. Campbell is going to get a ton of targets again. Minnesota’s secondary has been decimated by injuries, so Campbell is going to be open pretty much the entire day. There is a lot of potential for Campbell here.

Miles Boykin ($7,300): Boykin is easily Book’s favorite target. In two games with Book under center, Boykin has caught 19 passes for 261 yards and three touchdowns. I don’t know how much Notre Dame is going to throw against Pitt, but I will guarantee that Boykin gets at least 100 yards and a score again.

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Middle Tier:

Lil’Jordan Humphrey ($6,700): Well, if Texas is going to use Humphrey literally everywhere on the field, he is the Texas receiver to have. Humphrey had 133 yards receiving and threw for a touchdown against Oklahoma. Texas may not use as many gadget plays against Baylor, but you can bet that Humphrey will be heavily involved in the game plan again.

Jalen Hurd ($6,500): Hurd has exploded for 74.7 DraftKings points in the last two games. Hurd has caught 20 passes for 239 yards and a touchdown while running 14 times for 68 yards and two touchdowns in those games. His usage is as high as anyone in the country, and Hurd probably has the highest floor of any receiver due to his carries out of the backfield.

Felton Davis III ($6,000): Davis has been the victim of poor quarterback play, but the Sparts have shown the willingness to run him out of the backfield just to get him the ball. Davis had a big game against a strong Northwestern defense. He did his part to keep Sparty in the game. If they want to stay in against Penn State, it will be Davis that keeps them in it.

Bargain Shoppers:

Denzel Mims ($5,700): Mims isn’t quite the athlete as some on Baylor’s team, but he has the best hands of the receivers. Mims seems to pull in at least one circus catch a game. That has made him one of Brewer’s favorite targets, especially with Brewer in a tight spot. He is going to find a few of those against Texas. Expect Mims to add to his highlight reel here as well.

Rafael Araujo-Lopes ($3,800): With Taysir Mack out, Araujo-Lopes took over his playmaking role in the offense. Notre Dame is going to put up a lot of points in a little time, meaning Pitt is going to be playing from behind yet again. Maurice Ffrench is the possession guy and has the higher floor, but Araujo-Lopes is the one that can vault you up the leaderboard.

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