Go game-by-game with the NFL DFS Quick Hits and cut the fluff from your preliminary research!
What’s going on CPR team! The NFL DFS Quick Hits are back for week 6 of the NFL season as we seem to be speeding through the season. It’s hard to believe that we’re a third of the way through the season and already on our third week of byes, but time flies when you’re having fun! Last week showed us a handful of things; the Broncos get gashed on the ground, OBJ doubles as a quarterback and Mark Ingram is in line for the majority of goal-line work.
With the Saints on a bye, we’ll see if the OBJ and Broncos narratives hold true this week (odds are OBJ doesn’t throw for another TD), and we’ll also see what other tendencies we notice this week, highlighted in the NFL DFS Quick Hits.
What are NFL DFS Quick Hits?:
For those of who haven’t read my quick hits before, I’m not going to list the top plays and value plays of the slate like the typical DFS article does. My goal is simple. I want to help lead you in the right direction and cut the fluff when you start your research. I will list all 15 games of the week and highlight one piece of data, a trend, or notable narrative to help you focus your research and condense your player pool.
I will also split up the article to make it an easier read. I will do this by breaking it up between the Thursday, Sunday (1 PM ET games), Sunday afternoon games and Monday games on separate slide.
With that being said, let’s get to Week 6:
*PFF Player grades refer to Pro Football Focus’ player grades that compile and evaluate the production of players both overall and in certain situations (i.e. receiving, run blocking, pass rush, coverage, etc.)
Thursday Night Football
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Eagles CB Jalen Mills likes to talk a lot of smack during games, but his struggle this season has been the fact that he’s really struggled to back it up. Let’s take a look at the stat lines of his counterparts through the first 5 weeks of the season:
Week 1 – Julio Jones: 10 receptions, 169 yards
Week 2 – Mike Evans: 10 receptions, 83 yards, 1 TD
Week 3 – TY Hilton: 5 receptions, 50 yards
Week 4 – Corey Davis: 9 receptions, 161 yards, 1 TD
Week 5 – Adam Thielan – 7 receptions, 116 yards, 1 TD
Through 5 weeks, that’s an average of 8.2 receptions, 115.8 yards and 0.6 TDs per game. This Thursday, he’ll be tasked with shadowing the recently revitalized Odell Beckham Jr. who is fresh off of a 131 yard and 2 TD (1 receiving, 1 passing) performance. Look for Mills’ struggles to continue.
NFL DFS Sunday (1 PM ET)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Julio Jones was a let-down and a half last week in a smash spot, but he has a great shot at winning back the trust of fantasy and DFS players this week against a Buccaneers defense that has bled production to wide receivers. On the season, they allow the second most fantasy points-per-game to WRs (32.48) and have allowed the 2nd most amount of catches in the red-zone to the position (13). We know that Jones’ weakness is his red-zone involvement with Matt Ryan, but if there’s ever a week to break to trend, this is it. He’s still got a ridiculous 564 yards through 5 games and the Buccaneers don’t have a starting cornerback with a PFF grade over 57. Take advantage of this spot as he should come with lower ownership as well.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
One of the most entertaining rivalries in football, the Steelers and Bengals have combined to score at least 43 points in their last three outings and come into this matchup with a 53 point O/U with the Bengals being the -2.5 favorite. This bodes extremely well for Andy Dalton, who is only $7,500 on FanDuel while still averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. The Steelers allow the 2nd most fantasy points per game to QBs (25.2), have allowed the most passing TDs in the league (13) and the 2nd most passing yards (1,602). Dalton himself ranks 7th in the NFL with a PFF grade of 85.8, the highest mark of his 8 year career. Pairing him with AJ Green ($8,800) and/or an under-priced Tyler Boyd ($6,300) looks like it will be a very popular option this week.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
While the Baker Mayfield hype has settled a bit and the Browns are still struggling to control games, their offense comes into a sneaky good spot this week against the Chargers. Without Joey Bosa anchoring their defense through the first 5 weeks, the Chargers rank in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed per game (270.2), 20+ yard passing plays (2nd most at 26), and 40+ yard passing plays (2nd most at 5). This leaves Mayfield and Jarvis Landry in what should be an overlooked smash spot, as you could get them for sub-5% in GPPs.
More from FanSided
- Shohei Ohtani Rumors: The best trade package from every NL East team
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
Seattle Seahawks @ Oakland Raiders
After coming into the season under the assumption that Chris Carson was going to be the guy in Seattle, it’s quickly showing that this will be a full-blown committee for the foreseeable future. While committees are typically spots to avoid in fantasy, the fact that the Seahawks have rushed the ball 30 times in week 4 (21 carries for Mike Davis, 9 for Rashad Penny) and 32 times in week 5 (19 carries for Carson, 12 for Davis, 1 for Lockett) shows that there could be value here. Over these last two weeks, Mike Davis has seen 39 total touches, averaged 5.1 yards per carry and has shown that he’ll still have a significant role with Carson back. The Raiders have allowed 6 rushing TDs and surrender 4.9 yards per carry (5th most in NFL). With Davis only $5,700 on FanDuel, he could make for a great leverage play in tournaments.
Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins
The Chicago Bears D/ST are quickly becoming a DFS favorite, being one of the most effective and entertaining units to roster. They come into week 6 in yet another spot in which they should dominate against the Dolphins. Not a single offensive lineman on Miami has a PFF grade over 68.3 while only ONE defensive lineman for Chicago has a grade below 72 (with Khalil Mack owning a PFF grade of 92!). In 4 games, they’ve recorded 18 sacks, 8 interceptions, 3 fumble recoveries and 2 defensive TDs while allowing more than 17 points only once in week 1 against the Packers. They’re also criminally under-priced on Fanduel at $4,500.
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings
Adam Thielan might be the best story in football right now, as he just became the first player to ever post 100+ receiving yards in 5 straight games to start a season. Last week, he saw his lowest number of targets (10) and his second-lowest amount of catches (7) on the season. If that’s his floor, sign me up every single week. At first glance, the matchup with the Cardinals seems daunting, but when you consider the fact that elite CB Patrick Peterson will likely be shadowing Stefon Diggs, Thielan’s stock rises even more. We could see MORE targets, MORE receptions and MORE yards. That’s a scary thought.
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets
I never thought I’d live to see the day where stone-handed Eric Ebron is the most expensive TE on the slate, but here we are. With Jack Doyle out over the last few weeks and TY Hilton out last week, Ebron has seen at least 10+ targets in three straight weeks while recording 3 TDs in that span. He’s continued to struggle with drops, but he looked elite against the Pats last Thursday, posting 9 receptions for 105 yards and 2 TDs on 15 targets. The Jets are one of the stingiest teams in the NFL against TEs (allowing on 4.54 fantasy points per game), but if he’s the focal point of this offense again, I’m willing to have a few shares.
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins
If there is one team in the NFL that uses ONE running back (aside from the Rams), it’s the Panthers. After seeing 57 snaps in week 1, he saw more and more each week (63-67-69). His touches have also gone up since week 1 (albeit they’ve fluctuated more than his snap count), as he saw 16 in week 1, 22 in week 2, 30 in week 3 and 22 in week 4. It’s starting to look more like what Ron Rivera said about getting him the ball as much as possible is coming true. The Redskins are a middling run defense, allowing an average of 18.23 fantasy points per game to the position and 4 rushing TDs, but CMC excels in so many areas aside from rushing up the middle that he makes a fantastic play on DraftKings at $8,300.
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
After recording more than 10 touches only ONCE through his first four weeks, LeSean McCoy saw 26 touches in week 5 against the Titans as he recorded 108 yards from scrimmage. With Josh Allen under center, defenses have to respect the passing game a little more than when Nate Peterman was starting, taking some attention off of the ground game. The Texans aren’t a weak run defense by any means and they’ve only allowed 1 rushing TD on the season, but if a RB priced at $6,200 gets you 26 touches, they’re a phenomenal value play. Given the fact that it’s the Bills, I would reserve McCoy for GPPs, however.
NFL DFS Sunday (4 PM ET)
Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos
You shouldn’t need any additional reasoning to play Todd Gurley aside from the fact that he’s the best running back in football, but if you do, the Denver Broncos allowed 219 rushing yards to ISAIAH CROWELL last week. This, however, was not a blip on the radar. The Broncos run defense has struggled mightily this entire season. They’ve allowed an average of 23.76 fantasy points per game to running backs, 5 rushing touchdowns and 135.4 rushing yards per game. With the game script favoring the Rams (-7 point favorite) and both Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks banged up, we could be in for another ground-and-pound Gurley game. $9,500 on Fanduel still seems too cheap.
 Jacksonville Jaguars @ Dallas Cowboys
Once a powerhouse in the NFC, the Cowboys are looking more and more like the laughing-stock of the NFC this season. They have absolutely no weapons in the passing game and the fact that they matchup with Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye this week don’t help their case. Ezekiel Elliott is the only viable weapon on this team, but with the Jaguars expected to stack the box whenever he runs, I would advise against playing him. The Jags allow the fewest fantasy points per game to QBs and WRs and the 7th fewest to RBs. They come in as an elite defensive option this week.
Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans
Once a player with loads of potential that was derailed by injuries, WR John Brown has carved out a role as the WR1 in Baltimore. Through 5 weeks, he’s averaged 8.8 targets, 3.8 catches (efficiency could be better) and 79.2 yards per game with 3 total TDs. He remains a big play threat and if his matchup with Malcolm Butler is any indication, he could be in for another big game. Butler grades out as the 58th ranked CB in the league with a PFF grade of 63.3, the lowest of his 5 year career. He saw his snap count fall from 78 to 54 last week and could be in for a tough night covering Brown.
NFL DFS Primetime
Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots
With Rex Burkhead officially placed on the IR, we have some clarity in the New England backfield for what feels like the first time in years. Sony Michel seems to be the early down back with James White being the change-of-pace/passing-down option. While Michel has seen a nice amount of volume, White is the preferred option in my eyes in a game that will be an absolute shootout.
Over the last two weeks, White has seen a TOTAL of 10 carries, but has recorded 18 catches on 24 targets. He’s turned that into 145 total receiving yards and 2 TDs. The biggest note to make is that he received 14 targets last week in a game that Julian Edelman was back, showing that his role isn’t going anywhere. The Chiefs have allowed the 3rd most receptions to RBs in the league and the most receiving TDs by RBs (3), giving White an extremely stable floor. He could flirt with RB1 numbers if the shootout game script holds true this week.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
I may have been one week early in predicting my Aaron Jones breakout game, as the negative game script for the Packers negated any chance Jones would have had to exploit Detroit’s run defense. If it weren’t for the script, Jones’ would’ve had his breakout, as his 5.7 yards-per-carry (7 rushes for 40 yards) were worlds better than Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery.
*Hopefully*, this week’s game script will be the complete opposite, as the Packers come in as the -9.5 point favorites against a 49ers run defense that’s allowed 20.7 fantasy points per game to the RB position. If this holds true, we should see Jones early and often in this game.
Best of luck in your NFL DFS contests and stay tuned to Fnatasy CPR for all the latest Fantasy Football news and analysis!
Add us as a preferred source on Google