DRAFT.com Fantasy Football Projections Analysis: NFL DFS Week 6
By Joe Metz
Why do you need another DFS site? Because DRAFT combines the excitement of a season-long draft into one set of games! This article will highlight the players that are ranked too high, just right, or too low in their Week 6 Fantasy Football Projections to help you pinpoint who you should target in your DRAFTs this week!
Welcome to my first edition of DRAFT.com Fantasy Football Projections Analysis, where I hope to highlight some players that are being over-valued, under-valued, or that DRAFT hit right on the money with their projections/rankings. Typically, I will recap the players that I highlighted in the previous week as well as where my ownership was spread out amongst my drafts and why.
With that being said, this is obviously the first edition of this article series so the recap will have to wait until week 7. Before I get into the breakdown (position-by-position), I want to highlight how DRAFT scores players:
- Passing Yard: 0.04
- Passing TD: 4
- Int Thrown: -1
- Reception: 0.5
- Rushing Yard: 0.1
- Rushing TD: 6
- Receiving Yard: 0.1
- Receiving TD: 6
- Return TD: 6
- 2-Pt Conversion: 2
- Fumble Lost: -2
As for your weekly roster, you fill your team out with 1 QB, 2 RB, and 2 WR/TE.
Now that we have the basics down, let’s get to the breakdown:
Fantasy Football Projections Quarterbacks
Too High!
Alex Smith | QB7 | 19.3 proj.
I thought there was a typo on DRAFT when I saw this, because this is flat-out ridiculous. Smith has yet to pass for 300 yards this season and has failed to throw a touchdown in half of his games. With the status of Adrian Peterson up in the air, we could see the Carolina defense key in on the already disappointing passing attack. On top of that, the Panthers have recorded more interceptions (7) than they’ve allowed passing TDs (6). If he finishes within the top 10 at the QB position, I’ll gladly buy lunch for everyone who comments on this post.
Bullseye!
Ben Roethlisberger | QB6 | 20.1 proj.
While he’s historically better at home, Big Ben comes into this week looking like he could have a very productive game. Over the last two years against the Bengals, Roethlisberger has averaged 264.8 passing yards and 2 TDs. That alone equates to 18.5 fantasy points. Add in the fact that he has a growing Juju Smith-Schuester, a receiving back in James Conner and a bit of rushing upside and this seems like a spot on projection.
Too Low!
Andy Dalton | QB16 | 18.2 proj.
On the flip side of this matchup is the Red Rifle, Andy Dalton. He’s averaged over 20 fantasy points per game through what’s been a quiet 4-1 start to the Bengals’ season. The emergence of a legitimate WR2 (Tyler Boyd) has helped alleviate the pressure on AJ Green and the threat of Joe Mixon has kept defenses honest. Dalton has struggled against the Steelers over the last two seasons, topping 200 passing yards only once (last outing), but the Bengals implied total of 27.75 and an O/U of 53 point to a productive outing and a top-10 QB finish for the week.
Fantasy Football Projections Running Backs
Too High!
Saquon Barkley | RB2 | 18.8 proj.
While I am a big Barkley fan, I just don’t see the appeal this week. The Giants’ offensive line has been brutal, especially lately. This is clear if you look at the breakdown of Barkley’s last 20 rushes, as 14 of them have gone for 1 yard or less. On the flip side, the Eagles front 7 has been stout, allowing only 2.8 yards per carry and allowing the 2nd lowest amount of fantasy points per game to the RB position.
Bullseye!
Todd Gurley | RB1 | 22.3 proj.
You had to see this one coming. Gurley has been a man amongst boys this season, recording 9 total TDs through the first 5 weeks with 645 yards from scrimmage. The Denver Broncos were destroyed on the ground last week as Isaiah Crowell rushed for 219 yards on only 15 carries. They’ve allowed the 2nd most rushing yards in the league and have allowed an average of 1 TD per week. While his rank is spot on as the RB1 on DRAFT, his projections might be half of what he can do this week.
Too Low!
James White | RB15 | 12.7 proj.
My guess is that this projection is this low because of his inactivity in the ground game, but when a RB gets 24 targets over the last two weeks, he’s capable of scoring as much as anyone. White recorded 14 targets last week, catching 10 of them for 77 yards and a TD, making that his third straight week finding pay dirt. The game with the Chiefs has shootout written all over it and they’ve allowed more catches to RBs in the league than any other team. He’s my favorite RB2 selection on DRAFT if you can snag him in the 4th/5th round of drafts.
Fantasy Football Projections Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Too High!
Robert Woods | WR7 | 14.5 proj.
This is more about his ranking than it his is point projection. I know that both Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks are nursing injuries, but if they happen to sit, I have a hard time thinking this won’t be a Todd Gurley game. Woods has only topped 10 targets once this season while topping 5 catches only once as well. Being so big-play dependent can be a bit of a risky investment on a site where both WR spots are extremely important. The Broncos are in the bottom third of the league in fantasy points per game allowed to the WR position and I see no reason to draft Woods ahead of Mike Evans, AJ Green, Davante Adams and others he’s ranked ahead of.
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Bullseye!
Adam Thielen | WR5 | 15.2 proj.
After setting an NFL record by recording his 5th straight 100+ yard game to open a season, Thielen comes in as his highest WR rank of the young season (5) and it feels fitting. He’s averaged 117.8 yards per game and has 3 TDs, demonstrating some nice scoring upside. CB Patrick Peterson of the Cardinals will likely line up across from Stefon Diggs, which could force Kirk Cousins to look Thielen’s way even more than he does. He’s a great buy as a WR1 this week.
Too Low!
AJ Green | WR10 | 14.2 proj.
This echos the Andy Dalton write-up, but this rank/projection for Green this week is embarrassing. His volume has been somewhat down this season as his 10 targets last week was the first time this season he cracked double-digits. The bright side? He has 5 TDs on the season and is averaging over 15 yards per catch. In his last game against the Steelers, Green saw 16 targets and scored twice and their defense has only gotten worse. They’ve allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to WRs (31.24) and the 4th most TDs (8). If you can snag Green as your WR2, I’d consider that a very successful draft.
Next. NFL DFS Week 6 Quick Hits. dark
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