Eerily accurate Eastern Conference over/under predictions

BOSTON - MAY 9: Boston Celtics' Terry Rozier III leaps to try and block a pass from the 76ers' Joel Embiid during the first half. The Boston Celtics host the Philadelphia 76ers in Game Five of the NBA Eastern Conference Semi Final playoff series at TD Garden in Boston on May 9, 2018. (Photo by Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) /

After metaphorically sticking our heads in the sand for the entire summer trying to avoid seeing the Vegas lines, it is finally time to announce our win total projections and make our Eastern Conference Over/Under predictions. Attempting to avoid the numbers provided by the casinos we hope keeps our opinions independent and unsullied. And for the most part we succeed in ignoring them, except for when a friend excitedly texts “Hey should I bet the Grizzlies over 32.5 or what?!?!!?”

And so, with these picks the fifth season of Fastbreak Breakfast starts the same way our very first episode ever did in 2014. For any actual gamblers who may choose to listen, pay attention to this part: in the four years of making over/under predictions, siding with the majority on any pick (we call it the “2/3rds rule”) has a record of 77-43. That’s a winning percentage of 64.2%.

So what teams this year will receive the favorable 2/3rds stamp of approval? Which squads were we the most surprised by the official Vegas total? What are our absolute favorite picks?

Next. What should the Spurs do at point guard?. dark

All that, plus:

Last season almost a third of the league tanked. Will the new draft lottery odds have the desired effect of limiting tanking? What effect should that have on win totals?
Is there any chance the Cavaliers have some form of “Ewing Theory” surge?
Just how many “unders” is too many?
Was Dwight Howard’s latest injury merely matter of time before something happened?

So whether this is your first year or fifth with us, thanks for being here and go treat yourself to your favorite breakfast delicacy. (And also maybe don’t listen to this one if you don’t your a spoiler for your team’s season.)

If you want to play fantasy basketball with Keith, Jon and Chuck and other listeners of Fastbreak Breakfast, you can sign-up at Patreon.com/FastbreakBreakfast. For $5 a month you can join a listener league, including the ISHOP Negative Fantasy League. In addition, you will gain access to exclusive bonus episodes and the private Slack chat.

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