R.J. Barrett is too good to fail

R.J. Barrett may not have the ceiling of other top NBA Draft picks in recent years, but he is the safest bet to top the 2019 NBA Draft.

The sky is where our eyes look when we discuss NBA Draft prospects. The NBA Draft represents hope; it represents what could be, and we never really want to think about what the negative connotation of that would be. This is doubly true for those in the conversation for the top overall pick, where the discussion turns to not if the player will be an All-Star, but how many times, and how many title shots that will bring. For a team as bad as The Process Philadelphia 76ers or last year’s Phoenix Suns, it’s no fun for fans to consider how their new top overall pick might end up disappointing them.

The 2019 NBA Draft might force us to think differently. The top-tier of the class appears to have a much lower ceiling than in the past few years, and it’s generally considered the weakest class we’ve had since 2013. There’s no Ben Simmons or Karl-Anthony Towns in this class; heck, there’s not even a Deandre Ayton this year that presents a high volatility option that could be a star or total bust. Instead, there are four or five prospects with small slivers of star potential, but no one who looks like an obvious future star talent.

That’s where R.J. Barrett comes in. The Canadian wing has long been touted as the number one guy in this class, even before Marvin Bagley reclassified to 2018. He has an established track record of success against his peers at the international level and at Monteverde Academy in Florida, and that obviously has people excited about his long-term prospects. Just like any prospect, he has his potential tripping points and his potential swing skills that could make him great at the NBA level. But most importantly for this year, Barrett’s floor is so high that he’s probably the safest bet to be a quality starter in the 2019 NBA Draft.

That assessment hinges on the intersection of his athleticism and ball-handling ability, which projects the ability to score at the rim relatively easily in college. His athleticism sets the table, helping him blow by slower defenders and accelerate towards the corner. He also has great body control, able to contort himself at the rim and turn the corner on most defenders with wide, sweeping strides that change directions with minimal energy wasted.

Barrett catches eyes through his ability to throw down in the open court, where he’s a strong leaper off one foot. But it’s this craft attacking off the dribble that sets his high floor. Barrett is a good enough straight-line driver that it’s a comfortable projection to the NBA level, but that’s far from enough to be a lead guard in the NBA, as we saw with the early struggles of De’Aaron Fox last season. Barrett’s craft off the dribble ticks him up a level. He has a wide array of moves that can clear space, set up by that outlier ability to change directions on the fly. He’s a strong start-stop accelerator who can get defenders off balance with stutters, and he even has a pretty advanced Eurostep for his age.

Barrett is left-hand dominant on his finishes, although he isn’t as bad about this as Zion Williamson or Marvin Bagley. He needs to work on taking easy right-hand finishes at the college level, because he can draw himself into contests when there’s an easier off-hand finish available.

But he still grades out as a high-level finisher, thanks to his craft and soft touch around the rim, as that high degree-of-difficulty floater above shows. As he continues to mature physically, it’s reasonable to expect that Barrett can fit somewhere on the spectrum of elite finishers among NBA wings. He might not end up as strong as Giannis Antetokounmpo or James Harden, but he can be effective with a similar style of play.

Barrett also fits on that spectrum because of his playmaking ability out of the pick-and-roll. He has good passing touch, and is particularly adept at hitting dump-off passes while driving to the rim. This isn’t an incredibly difficult read, but this type of pass is NBA-level technique to feed a man through traffic.

These sharp looks out of the pick-and-roll should be accentuated at Duke, where the prospect of finding Zion Williamson in any number of scenarios rolling to the rim is beneficial to both parties. If the Canada tour is to be believed, Duke also will try to run a little bit more than usual this year, and that will allow for Barrett to work on developing more as an open-court passer, where he has shown promise as well.

Now, Barrett’s ceiling will largely be dictated by how well he physically matures, as any big-name driving threat needs to find ways to succeed without getting beat up over the course of the season. Harden has his low, dense center of gravity. Antetokounmpo has the length to just extend over any contest. Manu Ginobili might be the most coordinated player ever. Barrett is somewhere on that spectrum, but it might be a few years until we see exactly how good he can become.

The major limiting factor for Barrett as an offensive player appears to be shooting, where he lags behind his fellow high-level wing prospects in terms of efficiency and shooting mechanics. While these concerns might be overblown, they may limit his effectiveness playing off-ball, which could contribute to struggles this year if he can’t find effective ways to defer to Williamson and Cam Reddish. His shooting form is a little slow and can be a little awkward, with slight elbow flare on the gather. He also has a habit of shooting with a very high release point, which while helpful for Nassir Little’s jumper, results in a high arc that can cause his shot to sail against contests.

Now, the concerns might be overblown because Barrett’s pull-up jumper actually isn’t bad. He does a good job of squaring up on pull-ups, and he has good step-back mechanics thanks to his ability to create space. But when discussing off-ball play, that’s going to be necessary work he’ll need to put in. Almost all of his catch-and-shoot opportunities to date have come while stationary, and his shooting off the move is something that remains to be seen because of how much impact his mechanics could have there.

However, shooting or no, Barrett’s playmaking and scoring should translate in some regard to the NBA, which is why Barrett’s floor is so high. Comparing him to Nassir Little, the player who is probably closest in contention to Barrett for number one, I side with Barrett in terms of baseline role value in the NBA, even though Little fits closer to the 3-and-D role that we deem so valuable in the modern NBA. While Little is more developed as a shooter, his on-ball skills lag far behind Barrett’s, and the ability to create team scoring opportunities out of even secondary actions is inherently valuable for NBA wings. The NBA’s wing depth crisis over the past few years hasn’t come from a lack of wings who can shoot off the catch and play defense — those are plentiful. It’s the struggle to find players who can do what Barrett can — attack a mismatch one-on-one, get to the rim, and finish plays next to ball-dominant primary scorers.

Danny Greens aren’t in short supply. Khris Middletons are. And that’s what Barrett’s floor probably looks like. Even if he never develops a jumper, his fit as a two-way playmaking wing that can fit within a team defense* and take ball-handling pressure off a number one option means he’s going to be more inherently valuable than Little if neither improves much from their standing today. Even though Little might hit more threes and play better defense, Barrett is probably better suited to be a difference-maker. And that’s why, even though I am just as intrigued by the ceiling outcomes of Little, Reddish, and even Bol Bol as I am by Barrett’s, R.J. will be starting off the season as the number one player on the Step Back’s big board for the 2019 NBA Draft.

*Like with Williamson, defense is tough to evaluate for high schoolers. I’m optimistic about Barrett’s defensive fit from international play, but we’ll break this down in a future scouting report.