DraftKings MLB Picks October 13: Sale or Verlander?
The NLCS started last night with Kershaw giving up a homer to a left handed pitcher to get knocked around again. Tonight, both LCS’s are in action, and DraftKings is on top of it.
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It’s going to be chilly in Boston and in Milwaukee if the roof is open. Those aren’t environments conducive to power, so look for a big night from pitchers unless the roof is closed at Miller Park.
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!
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Justin Verlander ($9,500): Verlander is 3-3 with a 3.51 ERA in ten career starts at Fenway Park. Those numbers are far below his career dominance. The current Red Sox are only hitting .214 against Verlander, but they do have three homers and 21 runs in 206 at bats with only 43 strikeouts. The chill in Boston is going to help the pitchers, but there are some red flags here for Verlander, which does make him an acceptable fade.
Chris Sale ($9,000): The Astros are hitting a solid .256 against Sale in 160 at bats and they have seven homers to go with the 15 runs. The main difference here is Sale’s 46 strikeouts in that span. For me, that gives Sale the highest ceiling on this slate. Sale put up 23.8 DraftKings points in just 5.1 innings in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Yankees, and dominated in one relief inning in Game 4. Sale only started against the Astros once this year, and it wasn’t a great one. He surrendered four runs in six innings while striking out six. Sale only notched 13.3 DraftKings points in that one.
Hyun-Jin Ryu ($7,300): Ryu dominated the Braves in the NLDS, but he was much stronger at home than on the road during the regular season. The Brewers hit lefties pretty well. Just ask Clayton Kershaw. However, I do expect a solid start from Ryu. There is no reason not to. You can do worse than a quality start for this price.
Wade Miley ($4,500): Miley is a great way to save some cash, but the Dodgers are hitting .269 with six homers and 13 runs in 134 at bats with just 22 strikeouts. We know that about Miley though. He isn’t a strikeout guy. However, Miley didn’t allow a run to the Dodgers in 13 innings this year, racking up 40.6 DraftKings points in the process. My only apprehension here is that the Brewers pulled the plug on Miley after just 4.2 innings in the NLDS. He could face a similarly short outing here as the Brewers are going to do everything they can to take a 2-0 lead before heading west. Still, Miley had a solid 12.1 DraftKings points in that game against the Rockies. That’s worth this price.
Surprise, Christian Yelich has homered off of Ryu before. In fact, all three current Brewers that Ryu has faced have homered off of him (Yelich, Ryan Braun, and Granderson). However, I don’t expect Granderson to start despite his modest success against Ryu.
If you want to go after Sale, there are places to do it since he has surrendered seven homers. Jose Altuve is 10-29(.345) with three of those homers, a steal, and five RBI. Bregman has two solo shots and two singles in eight at bats.
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Matt Kemp is the way to go against Miley. Kemp is 8-33(.242) with two homers and six RBI against Miley. Puig, Grandal, and Manny Machado own homers against Miley as well, and all of them are decently priced. David Freese looks high at $4,500, but Freese is 7-18(.389) with a homer off of Miley.
Benintendi is only 2-14 against Verlander, but he does have a homer off of him.
Steve Pearce and Eduardo Nunez both have homers against Justin Verlander, and the price is definitely right for them. I don’t know how much you can reasonably expect here though. My favorite Red Sox value play might be Sandy Leon. Leon is only $2,500 and he is 4-11 with a RBI against Verlander.
I like Evan Gattis as a value play here. Gattis is 5-17(.294) with a solo homer against Chris Sale.
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