DraftKings NBA Picks October 16: Use The Process to your advantage

DraftKings NBA Picks October 16: Use The Process to your advantage

The NBA is back! More importantly, DraftKings made a very wise move and made me VERY happy by bringing back late swap! No more destroyed lineups because of someone not being on a lineup card (that happened to C.J. McCollum and about 20% of owners last year), injuries during warm ups, or rest. If weird things are happening out west, we can still swap them out now! I know I don’t mean much for DraftKings in the grand scheme of things. I don’t spend a lot on their sits, but THANK YOU! All of us thank you!

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The money line in two game slates can was under 300 a couple of times in the playoffs last year. With four playoff teams facing off in the opener, expect similarly lower scoring tournament. If we get 6x value, it could take down the tournament!

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Point Guards:

Best Bet:

Stephen Curry ($8,600): With Westbrook not cleared yet, I find it really hard to believe he plays a full compliment of minutes without a preseason. The Thunder have been very careful with him, so if Russ plays, it wont be more than half the game. That means the stage is open for others, including Curry. Curry racked up 127 DraftKings points in three games against the Thunder last year. If we get that out of him in the opener, that’s pretty close to 5x value.

Ben Simmons ($8,400): Simmons averaged a hair over 36 DraftKings points per game in the five game series with the Celtics in the playoffs last year, but the Celtics were without Irving. Those numbers would still leave us wanting more. Did Simmons take that big step forward in what is essentially year 2? If he did, he’s worth the money. I don’t really trust him against Boston though.

Honorable Mention:

Kyrie Irving ($7,600): Irving put up 120.5 DraftKings points in three games against the Sixers last year, so Kyrie is probably worth building around. I tend to think that Heyward will help compliment his fantasy numbers instead of take away from them. That said, the Celtics are so deep, how much run are they going to give everyone in the opener?

Dennis Schroder ($6,300): If Westbrook is out, Schroder is going to be at least 75% owned. And I still don’t think we can fade him. The real value here could be if Westbrook starts and plays. I still see Schroder playing at least half the game, possibly more. He can put up enough numbers in 25 minutes to get him over 5x value at this price.

Dark Horse:

Markelle Fultz ($5,000): Fultz was solid starting in the preseason, but I don’t know how committed the Sixers are to this. Redick started in the second half in a few of the preseason games. That would take some of the luster off of Fultz, but a starter with this kind of talent at $5,000 could be an absolute steal.

My pick: Curry(PG), Schroder(G), Fultz(UTIL)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

Klay Thompson ($5,900): Boston is likely going to limit Hayward’s minutes to start the season. While that normally wouldn’t be a big deal, I don’t like it against a team like Philadelphia. Klay wasn’t great against the Thunder last year, but with Roberson out to start the season, there is still value potential here. Thompson can go off on any given night, and this price make him worth taking a shot on.

Honorable Mention:

Jaylen Brown ($5,300): Brown shot the lights out in the preseason, and if Hayward is only going to play 25-28 minutes. Brown should get good run here. Boston is so loaded at guard that it’s hard to rely on any rotations without seeing them in action, but I have a feeling that they are going to have a hard time keeping Brown off the floor.

J.J. Redick ($4,900): If the Sixers need offense from the outside, it likely has to come from Redick. Fultz and Simmons aren’t great outside shooters. I still expect Redick to get decent run here for Philly, especially in games where they are trying to keep up. This should be one of those.

Dark Horses:

Terry Rozier ($4,500): It’s strange to see someone of Rozier’s talent at this price point. Rozier always holds some value because he can play with or off the ball. We don’t really know how game flow will go, but Rozier averaged 28.8 DraftKings points per game against the Sixers last year. Kyrie is going to cut into that, but I still see Rozier getting decent run against the second unit. That gives him some value here.

Hamidou Diallo ($3,100): If Westbrook is out, I could see Diallo starting this game with Schroder starting at the point. Roberson, Terrence Ferguson, and Alex Abrines are all out as well. With just Luwawu-Cabarrot as competition, we could see good minutes for Diallo since he was outstanding in the preseason. However, if Diallo doesn’t start, it’s going to be hard to trust this.

My pick: Diallo(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Kevin Durant ($9,000): My philosophy on the Warriors is pretty simple. If Curry is out, play Durant. If both are in, play Curry. Never both. Durant rarely hits value with Curry on the court, but I will say that this is a reasonable price for KD. It’s when he’s up in the five digits that we really have to think about it. Durant averaged 44.6 DraftKings points against his former team in four games last year. That makes him worth a look at this price point.

Paul George ($8,000): As far as I’m concerned, George is a must play in the opener. Westbrook is going to be limited at best and George racked up a 41.3 DraftKings point per game average in four games against the Warriors last year. The ownership is probably going to be pretty high, but I see George outscoring most players on Opening Night, especially if Westbrook is out completely.

Honorable Mention:

Jayson Tatum ($5,600): Is Tatum going to build on his monster playoff run from last year? He was pretty solid in the preseason, but that doesn’t tell us much. For this price, it’s worth playing Tatum to find out. His role will be diminished with everyone else healthy, but not to the point where he shouldn’t hit value.

Dark Horses:

Robert Covington ($4,700): We know that Covington is capable of stuffing a stat sheet, but he does less of that with the similar Ben Simmons on the floor. Much like last year, Covington had a subpar preseason. That turned into a horrible October for Covington in which he lost his job. That likely wont happen this year, but I’m nervous about throwing him out there.

Marcus Morris ($4,200): Morris always seems to produce whether he starts or not. He’s not going to start on this team, but Morris is a capable scorer on the second team and should have no issues hitting value for this price. That said, his upside is minimal, even at this low price.

My pick: George(SF), Covington(F)

Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

Draymond Green ($7,300): Green isn’t much of a scorer, but he does literally everything else. I’m a little nervous about Green since Steve Kerr has mentioned that his minutes will be limited. We have no clue what that means. Green could see two less minutes than normal or 20 less. We really don’t know. If you use Green, there is inherent risk, but he should come at low ownership.

Honorable Mention:

Dario Saric ($5,500): Saric averaged 37.2 DraftKings points in the five games against Boston in the playoffs last year. In the last two games of that series, Saric scorched the Celtics for 96.5 DraftKings points. I’m a big fan of Saric at this price so long as his back is okay. Early reports are that it should be.

Dark Horses:

Jerami Grant ($4,300): Grant and Patterson split time in the preseason, and no one separated themselves to take Carmelo Anthony‘s slot. I hope it’s Grant since he played well when Melo or Paul George were out last year. Patterson is a solid player, but he doesn’t have any upside whatsoever.

Jordan Bell ($4,100): If Draymond is indeed limited, Bell should see some more playing time. I like Bell anyway with the center position mostly open while waiting for Boogie to recover. Bell played well in limited time last year, and should continue to this year. I would rather throw the dart with Bell than to try and rely on Patrick Patterson.

My pick: Saric(PF)

Center

Best Bet:

Joel Embiid ($8,800): Embiid topped 50 DraftKings points in four of the five playoff games in the series with Boston last year. We all know what a monster Embiid was down the stretch, and he looks super cheap for the upside tonight. Based on upside alone, Embiid is my favorite play. Play him while you can for this price. He is going to be in five digits most of the season.

Honorable Mention:

Al Horford ($6,100): Horford is the Eastern Conference version of Draymond Green. Most of what he does isn’t going to show up on the stat sheet or rocket you up the leader board. For that reason, Horford is mostly forgotten in DFS. However, Horford averaged 36.1 DraftKings points in nine games against the Sixers last year. He could be that 6x value we are looking for!

Steven Adams ($5,800): We saw Adams really heat up towards the end of last year. He put up a 31.1 DraftKings point average in four games against the Warriors last year. I like the upside for Adams, especially without a true center for the Warriors. Adams may be needed to help with the scoring load if Russ is out, so he could vault to must play status in a hurry before tomorrow.

Dark Horse:

Nerlens Noel ($3,600): Dallas never trusted Noel with minutes, and the Thunder may not either, at least early on. However, when you take a look at the Thunder front line, there is room for Noel to produce here. Adams routinely gets himself in foul trouble, so Noel should see 20 minutes or more on a regular basis. He is someone to keep an eye on, though using him in the opener is taking a rather large risk no matter how good he looked in the preseason.

My pick: Embiid(C)

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