Go game-by-game with the NFL DFS Quick Hits and cut the fluff from your preliminary research!
Welcome back to another edition of NFL DFS Quick Hits for Week 7 of the NFL season! Week 6 treated me well, as I was able to put together some solid lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings after pivoting to Latavius Murray to save some salary and finally getting Julio Jones right.
A week after Jameis Winston finished as the QB1 (yes, you read that right), we turn our attentions to Week 7 with 4 teams on a bye and the dreary Falcons defense off of the main slate. Even so, we have 14 games to break down, so let’s get to the quick hits:
What are NFL DFS Quick Hits?:
For those of who haven’t read my quick hits before, I’m not going to list the top plays and value plays of the slate like the typical DFS article does. My goal is simple. I want to help lead you in the right direction and cut the fluff when you start your research. I will list all 14 games of week 7 and highlight one piece of data, a trend, or notable narrative to help you focus your research and condense your player pool.
I will also split up the article to make it an easier read. I will do this by breaking it up between the Thursday, Sunday (1 PM ET games), Sunday afternoon games and Monday games on separate slide.
With that being said, let’s get to Week 7:
*We have a London game on Sunday as the Titans and Chargers will kick off at 9:30 AM on Sunday
Thursday Night Football
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
It’s becoming extremely clear that no team in the league has a worse run defense than the Denver Broncos. Over the last two weeks, this is what they’ve allowed to running backs:
Week 5: 35 rushes, 318 yards, 1 TD, 1 rec, 12 yards
Week 6: 33 rushes, 232 yards, 2 TD, 2 rec, 17 yards
These games were highlighted by Isaiah Crowell‘s 200+ rushing yard performance in Week 5 and Todd Gurley’s 200+ rushing yard performance in Week 6. If there is any spot for David Johnson to break out, this is it. He’s seen at least 20 touches in 3 consecutive games and should have no problem gouging this porous run defense.
NFL DFS – Sunday (Early Games)
*Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers (9:30 AM ET)
One week after allowing more sacks (11) than Marcus Mariota had completions (10), the Titans travel to London to face the high octane Chargers. The Chargers are a defense I was high on heading into the season, but the absence of Joey Bosa has severely hurt their pass rush. With that being said, they have recorded 8 sacks over the last two weeks while allowing 24 total points. If Tennessee’s O-line is as bad as they were in Week 6, the LAC D/ST could be one of the top scoring units of the week.
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
As great as the Chicago Bears D/ST has been, their glaring weakness has been their secondary. They allow the 5th most fantasy points per game to the WR position (28.62) and the 9th most FPPG to TE (9.34). Expecting Sony Michel to get bottled up, we could see an increase in passing attempts which means more production for two under-priced receivers; Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon. Edelman recorded his first TD of the season in Week 6 and Gordon had a season-high in targets (9) and his highest snap count as a Patriot (63). Both are great GPP plays in low-ownership spots.
Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts
As underwhelming as the Indianapolis Colts have been, their defense cannot go overlooked this week. The Bills have allowed the most FPPG to opposing defenses (13) and have thrown the most INTs (9) and have been sacked the 3rd most (24) amount of times in the entire league. Oh yeah, and Josh Allen is not starting this week. Does this leave Nate Peterman out to start? Maybe. If that’s the case, lock and load on the Colts defense, as Peterman has a career 3:9 touchdown to interception ratio. Yes, you read that correctly.
Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins
If you’re looking for a cheap WR dart throw this week, Albert Wilson may be your guy. Over the last 3 weeks, he’s accumulated 21 targets, 15 catches, 217 yards and 2 touchdowns. With Darius Slay likely lining up opposite of Kenny Stills, Wilson will line up against Teez Tabor, who possesses a horrible player grade of 30.1 (out of 100). With increasing volume and a plus matchup, he could pay off his $5,600 FD price tag rather quickly on Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Jets
After coming into the season as one of the biggest boom-or-bust options, we’ve seen WAY more bust than boom out of Robby Anderson through the first 6 games. This can likely be chalked up to the Jets easing rookie QB Sam Darnold into the playbook, but the last two weeks show that they’re trusting him to go downfield more. In week 5, he connected with Anderson for 2 long TDs as Anderson posted a 3-123-2 line. In week 6, he was held to 3-39 on 5 targets. There are two big reasons why he’s a BOOM play this week; He ranks 8th in the league in ADOT (average depth of target) at 19.2 yards per target, and Quincy Enunwa has already been ruled out and Terrelle Pryor is questionable. He has the chance to have a massive game for a dirt cheap price on FanDuel ($5,400).
Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Once a menacing secondary, the Carolina Panthers have been middling to say the least this season and have particularly struggled against the TE position as they’ve allowed the 5th most FPPG on the season (9.94). That’s an even more attractive number when you realize they’ll see Zach Ertz this week. Ertz has the lead amongst TEs in receptions (48), yards (480) and yards-per-game (80). He’s a sure-fire bet to be a top 2 TE this week and comes as a great GPP option as most tend to pay down at the TE position.
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers allow the most FPPG to QBs (28.39), the 2nd most FPPG to WRs (32.74) and the most FPPG to TEs (13.32) in the entire NFL. It’s safe to say that their pass defense is not good. That bodes extremely well for Baker Mayfield, who has struggled to connect with his WRs through the early portion of the season (less than a 50% completion rate to Callaway and Landry last week) on 20+ targets. This may be a week where you see a lot of Browns ownership in cash games and frankly, I’m okay with it.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
One of only 2 QBs to throw an interception in every game this season, DeShaun Watson had had a game to forget last week, tossing 177 yards and a TD with 2 picks. Another huge issue? He’s been sacked 25 times in 6 games this season. After 2 horrible weeks, the Jaguars defense may finally be in a bounce-back spot. They’ve only recorded 2 picks in the last 5 weeks and less than 3 sacks per game over the last 5, but with Watson’s tendencies and the bad O-Line, $4,400 seems like a steal on FanDuel.
NFL DFS Sunday (4 PM ET)
New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens
The league leader in ADOT (of WR with at least 10 targets), WR John Brown has averaged 22.3 yards per target and 20.2 yards per catch (4th in the NFL). The Saints have allowed the most FPPG to WRs (36.26), the 2nd most receiving TDs (10), the 3rd most yards per reception (12.7) and over 20 20+ yard plays by WRs. In a game in which I expect New Orleans to lead most of the game, this game script and matchup could not set up any more perfect for Brown and I don’t expect much attention to be on him this week.
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Todd Gurley is priced all the way up at $10,200 on FanDuel and that STILL seems too cheap. He rushed for over 200 yards and 2 TDs last week, pushing his TD count up to 9 this season. He leads the league in rushing yards, TDs and ranks 15th in RB receptions. You really can’t get much better than he’s doing this season. The 49ers have allowed the 11th most FPPG to RBs (19.97), but the matchup is irrelevant at this point. If you can fit him into your lineup this week, just do it.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
One surprise defense this season has been the Washington Redskins. They’ve allowed the 5th fewest yards per game (326.2), the 6th fewest rushing yards per game (90.2) and the 8th fewest passing yards per game (236). On the flip side, the Cowboys rank 4th worst in the league in offensive yards per game (319.5) and play at arguably the slowest pace in the NFL. This should be a low-scoring affair and the Redskins make for a top 5 defense this week.
NFL DFS Primetime (SNF + MNF)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
This is the second week in a row that the Chiefs have not been on the main slate and I’m starting to go through withdrawal. While there are obviously a ton of offensive pieces in this game, Evan Silva of Rotoworld may have highlighted my favorite:
He came through last week and Uzomah is in a great position again this week at a very affordable price across the industry.
New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons
No defense has allowed more receptions to RBs this season than the Atlanta Falcons. No running back in the entire NFL has more targets (48) or receptions (40) than Saquon Barkley. He’s proven himself to be a man amongst boys behind a brutal offensive line, ranking 6th in the league in rushing yards (438), 8th in rushing TDs (4) and 3rd in fantasy points for RBs (117 in standard leagues). He has a shot at increasing that by 50 this week against the Falcons defense.
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR throughout the week for all of our NFL DFS picks on all of the major sites. With the NBA back in full gear, we are as well! Be on the lookout for our college football DFS and spread picks, PGA DFS picks, and NHL DFS picks. We have it all covered!