DraftKings NBA Picks October 17: Use Sixers against Terri-Bulls
There are only three NBA games tonight, so there wont be as much parity in DraftKings lineups. The highest scoring player last night was 15.1% owned. Tonight that percentage will likely be closer to 40. We need to gain our separation elsewhere, but we also need to hit that high scorer.
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The money line was up a touch to 277 last night. My idea of fading stars wasn’t terrible. My published lineup didn’t place, but the one I put together later in the day building around Hardaway and Gobert snuck above the money line.
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Ben Simmons ($9,500): Simmons flirted with a triple double in the opener, ultimately coming up two assists short. If Simmons ever gets his shooting in order, he could be the best fantasy player in the league. We saw Simmons dominate the Bulls last year with 187.25 DraftKings points in just three games against them. He is absolutely worth this price, and could hit that coveted 6x value, which is rare from this price range.
Damian Lillard ($8,600): Lillard racked up 102.25 DraftKings points in just two games against the Lakers last year, but that doesn’t mean much. The Lakers didn’t have Rondo then. Not that Rondo is a great defender, but he’s a lot better than Ball or Jordan Clarkson. I don’t see a bust game from a well rested Lillard, but expecting 50 DraftKings points here could be rather optimistic.
Kris Dunn ($6,600): I’m pretty sure that “thou shalt not play John Wall against the Heat” is one of the ten commandments of DFS basketball. Wall was nowhere near value in any of the games against Miami last year. This one makes me a little nervous as well, but Dunn at least put up 59.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Sixers. If Dunn busts, he will hurt you a lot less than Wall.
Goran Dragic ($6,000): Dragic is always one of those guys that is more valuable in real life than fantasy. He averaged 26.8 DraftKings points against the Wizards last year in four games, so there is a good chance that he doesn’t hit value. However, Dragic looked more healthy in preseason than he did all of last year. He could be in for a good rebound here until he gets hurt again.
Rajon Rondo ($5,800): We don’t know how this situation is going to play out, so using Rondo or Ball is a big risk. Ball likely starts, but Rondo has the ability to rack up a ton of assists in a short amount of time. The Pelicans got Rondo last year with the intention of him coming off the bench. He ended up forcing his way into the lineup. Don’t be shocked if the same happens here. If you ask me who is more likely to hit value, I would say that Rondo has the better chance if they both play about the same amount of minutes.
Markelle Fultz ($4,500): Fultz playing just four minutes in the second half in the opener ruined a lot of lineups, which will sour many on using him again. However, this is a game against the Bulls that is pretty likely to get out of hand. If it does as expected, I think we see Fultz play more down the stretch. Confidence was an issue against Boston. The best way to work on that is to let him run through the Bulls.
My pick: Simmons(PG), Fultz(G); Lillard(PG)
CJ McCollum ($7,100): CJ picked up 107.75 DraftKings points in three games against the Lakers last year, and that was mostly with KCP on him. The Blazers are a little deeper at guard this year. That is still the most dominant part of the team. Of course, having LeBron in there for the Lakers changes things, but I still like CJ here.
Bradley Beal ($6,800): It wasn’t Wall that got to the Heat last year. It was Beal. Beal averaged 39.8 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Heat. I’m a big fan of Beal at this price because I could see him coming close to 40 DraftKings points again here.
Zach LaVine ($6,400): This is a matchup that looks poor on paper, but LaVine put up 70.5 DraftKings points in two games against Philly last year. His sheer athleticism makes LaVine a popular GPP targets on any given night. Even more so with his price in this range.
Josh Richardson ($6,200): I like Richardson only if Winslow is out again. He played 38 minutes against Orlando last night, and was heavily involved on both ends of the court. There is good value potential, but only if Miami is missing Ellington and/or Winslow again.
JJ Redick ($5,100): Redick will continue to start the second half of games. Whether he will play most of the second half remains to be seen. I kind of think Redick will see less minutes since I expect this game to get out of hand, but if for some reason it stays close, Redick could be a huge bargain.
Josh Hart ($4,300): I imagine that KCP will play and likely start, but is he part of the future here? KCP is the better defender, but Hart is still solid defensively, and is far more athletic. That would seem to suit the Lakers better, but evolution is slow. The Lakers are still paying KCP a lot of money, so Hart will have to continue outplaying him off the bench. I do see Hart getting enough court time to hit value at this price though, making him worth a cheap flier.
My pick: Beal(SG); LaVine(SG), Hart(G)
Brandon Ingram ($6,500): The Lakers are going to get Ingram on the court as much as possible. His ability to play at least three different positions is only going to help that cause. First, the elephant. I’m not paying that much for LeBron against a strong defensive team like Portland. He may buck the trend like A.D. did last night in dismantling the Rockets, but I doubt it. The Rockets had enough turnover. Portland didn’t really lose anyone. LeBron probably hits 50, and may be the only one on the slate to do so. However, that’s still not 5x value. I’d much rather go with Ingram, who looked like a beast in preseason.
Otto Porter ($5,600): Porter was handled by the Heat last year, picking up just 100 DraftKings points in four games. His efficiency in the preseason was impressive, and Porter will put up solid numbers across the board. I see Porter as a solid value play, but he doesn’t have the coveted upside for GPP usage.
Dario Saric ($5,500): I think many will be off of Saric because of his uninspiring opener, but he only played 22 minutes because of foul trouble. If you take Saric’s projection over his normal course of 30-33 minutes, he easily hits value. I like Saric quite a bit against Chicago, a team that he torched for a 36.5 DraftKings point average in three games last year.
Robert Covington ($4,700): I like Jabari Parker in Chicago, but I think I want to see how that plays out first. Covington is much more of a sure thing. He had his usual solid stat line in the opener, and should give you something solid for the price once again. That makes Covington a nice play in all formats.
Justin Holiday ($4,300): Holiday put up some pretty big numbers with the Bulls when they gave him run down the stretch. However, this looks like a situation where Holiday may be a starter in name only. If I had to guess, I would say that Parker plays as many if not more minutes than Holiday. That said, Parker is still kind of a question mark. I like Holiday starting at this price anyway.
Derrick Jones ($3,400): Injuries put Jones in the starting lineup last night, and he responded with a solid game from a fantasy perspective. Defensively, not so much. If Winslow returns, I think the value is gone for Jones. However, if he earns another start, there is value to be had here.
My pick: Covington(SF), Holiday(F); Ingram(SF), Holiday(F)
Bobby Portis ($5,700): Price isn’t going to be an issue tonight since LeBron is really the only expensive forward. I am a huge fan of Portis starting at this price point. Even if Portis comes off the bench, he always plays a lot of minutes, and sometimes produces better than if he starts. Portis looks like one of the safer plays on the board for me tonight, and he has quite a bit of upside.
Kyle Kuzma ($5,500): Kuzma’s situation is kind of up in the air right now too. All we really know about the Lakers is that LeBron and Ingram will be on the court. How much are they really going to use the two true centers? Can Kumza play the five? At any rate, Kuzma has shown the ability to put up big points in small minutes throughout his career. If he starts, I definitely want a piece for this price. I still think Kuzma plays enough off the bench to warrant a look, but it would seriously limit his upside.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,900): Aminu relies mostly on defensive stats to hit his value. He usually isn’t a big part of the offense. That’s not to say he can’t be. If you remember back to the series against the Pelicans, he had a couple of huge games offensively last year in losing efforts. The guards will likely dominate against the Lakers, but this low tag on Aminu at least makes him worth a look. We know the minutes are there.
My pick: Portis(PF), Portis(PF)
Joel Embiid ($9,700): Embiid played 36 minutes against Boston in the opener. If he plays that against most teams, he is going to be priced around 12,000 the rest of the year. His upside is that high. Embiid abused Chicago for 106 DraftKings points in just 66 minutes over two games. Embiid is chalk, but we have to eat it. I doubt anyone else gets close for the price.
Hassan Whiteside ($7,000): The biggest thing I saw from Whiteside in the opener was that he racked up 34 minutes of court time. That could be huge for his fantasy prospects. I like him a lot tonight regardless of the status of Howard, but I would watch for any news on whether his minutes will be limited in a back to back.
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,300): The playing time of Nurkic is probably going to depend on how much the Lakers run McGee out there. Nurkic has shown the ability to put up really good numbers when given the chance. He put up 104.25 DraftKings points in three games against the Lakers last season. He should be near that total tonight if he plays enough.
Dwight Howard ($5,900): Howard is still an elite rebounder, but that could be diminished some against a mammoth like Whiteside. D12 says he is going to alter his game to work more in the modern day NBA. Will he break out that three point shot? At any rate, we know that Whiteside isn’t much of a defender. Howard averaged 38.5 DraftKings points in four games against the Heat with Charlotte last year.
JaVale McGee ($4,500): McGee was used sparingly as a center for the Warriors, but I’m not sure the Lakers really have anyone that can slide to center with ease like Draymond could. I see more run for McGee this year, at least early in the year. McGee is definitely worth a flier at this price. He is one of the few Lakers I would actually play with confidence tonight, the other being Ingram.
My pick: Embiid(C), McGee(UTIL); Embiid(C), McGee(UTIL)
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