DraftKings CFB picks October 25: Build with Baylor/WVU
We have five Thursday games this week, the most of the season, so DraftKings put us another Thursday slate out there! You have to dig a little out of your comfort zone with only four of the ten teams in major conferences, but this can be the place to win some big prizes!
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My early lineups last Saturday were very close, but choosing value at quarterback to pay for Hollywood Brown became a bad idea when Brown got hurt. I did hit big on Stevie Scott and Damonte Coxie to hit the money line of 153.62 though.
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Will Grier ($10,900): To have a high powered offense like this on a short slate makes is a difficult fade. I have no problem fading the West Virginia receivers because there are so many that produce, but as for the guy throwing to them, this is a tough one to let go. Grier only had one clunker, and that was last week on the road. That could serve to keep ownership down, which makes me like this even more.
Ryan Willis ($8,500): Nathan Rourke has had some pretty big games for Ohio this year, but they have come against bad defenses. Ball State isn’t one of those. It’s looks better to go with Willis against Georgia Tech. The Bees have allowed 230 passing yards per game, so rush defense is their strength. Willis is back there mainly to throw, and he should have plenty of chances to do just that here.
Charlie Brewer ($8,200): Well, it was only a matter of time before Brewer’s price went up with the way he was playing. West Virginia’s defense hasn’t been all that great, and with Baylor likely playing from behind, Brewer is probably going to throw more than 50 passes. That kind of volume makes him worth the while.
Jon Wassink ($7,500): Toledo’s defense has given up 437 yards per game this year. Holy Toledo! That’s a lot of yards! Wassink isn’t just a passer. He can tuck and run as well, shown by his three rushing touchdowns last week. No matter how the Broncos choose to attack Toledo here, one thing is certain. Wassink will be heavily involved.
Riley Neal ($6,500): Ohio’s defense is allowing 311 passing yards per game, so Neal should be able to sling it around at will. Neal has at least 20 DraftKings points in all but one MAC game this year, and that was against Northern Illinois, who likely has the best defense in the conference. I expect a pretty big game from Neal here, which makes him a great bargain for the price.
Zac Thomas ($6,000): Georgia Southern’s defensive numbers are pretty good, but that has a lot to do with the schedule. Appalachian State has strong defensive numbers, and has played some pretty good teams. I don’t expect a huge game from Thomas, but I’ll take 20 DraftKings points for this price. I would say that is firmly within reach.
Levante Bellamy ($9,500): It’s hard to pay this kind of money for a guy that is in a timeshare at running back with one of the best backs in school history, Jamauri Bogan. Bellamy is getting more carries and more yards, but Bogan has scored more touchdowns. That makes it hard to really guess who will have a better game at Toledo, but I will say this: the Broncos ran for 350 yards on the ground last game. If they do it again, I’m not opposed to playing both backs. There should be plenty of work to go around. Bellamy is the safer cash pick, but Bogan may have more upside.
Darrynton Evans ($7,400): Evans has racked up 298 yards and three total touchdowns in the two games since Jalin Moore went down. We know that Thomas could poach some of the action, but the Mountaineers have leaned on Evans just like they did on Moore. His workload seems secure, so his output should be as well.
James Gilbert ($5,700): Gilbert has been a disappointment after the numbers he put up last year, but he has a chance to get back on track against the Ohio defense. The Ball State offense has been hindered for the last couple of weeks, but it will look more like it did in the first couple of months here against Ohio.
Kennedy McKoy ($5,100): McKoy is still the starter for West Virginia, but trying to figure out this backfield situation is a huge mess. Leddie Brown had a big game against Kansas only to not get a carry against Iowa State in the loss in Ames. I think that had to do with the way the game went. No one in this West Virginia backfield is what I call safe, but against a Baylor team that allows a lot of big plays, Brown could be worth a GPP dart. McKoy is the safer of the two though.
Jerry Howard ($4,700): It’s hard to tell whether Howard or Mason will get the bulk of the work, but in a triple option, the main three components are always a threat to score. Howard gets more carries, but Mason has scored more touchdowns. At any rate, I don’t have an issue using either or both to help free up salary for an expensive quarterback. As for which one will have a better game, your guess is as good as mine. Howard probably has the edge due to slightly more carries.
Jalen Hurd ($7,500): For cash games, the only receiver I truly trust on this slate is Hurd. He gets the ball in so many ways and is such a dangerous part of the Baylor offense that the ball must go through him. That isn’t the case with the West Virginia receivers. Sills and Jennings almost never both have a good game. It’s one or the other, and good luck deciphering which one before the game starts. Hurd is guaranteed production, and is worth paying up for.
Damon Hazelton ($6,800): Hazelton is the Virginia Tech receiver to go after if you’re going to use one. He was somewhat quiet against the Tarheels last week after a monster game against Notre Dame, but he should be a big part of the offense against Georgia Tech since they don’t have a corner that can shut him down.
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Papi White ($6,500): White is the big play guy in the Ohio offense. Not only is he the guy that gets the deep targets, the Bobcats usually get him the ball out of the backfield once or twice per game. Last Saturday White only had three touches. He scored on all three of them.
Denzel Mims ($6,300): Mims has 71.4 DraftKings points over the last three games. You know, the time in which Baylor’s offense has really looked like a cohesive unit. Hurd doesn’t really take away from the production of Mims, so both are safe options in what promises to be a pretty high scoring game in Morgantown.
Justin Hall ($5,900): Hall has been the most targeted receiver for the Cardinals this year. If Neal is going to go crazy throwing the ball all over this terrible Ohio pass defense, expect Hall to be front and center catching them. He caught 10 of Neal’s 21 completions last week. Riley Miller is the bigger playmaker, and is worth a look as well.
Diontae Johnson ($5,800): Johnson would have been a dud against Buffalo last week if it weren’t for an eighty yard touchdown catch. He still only ended up with 97 yards, but that touchdown made the day worth while. Western Michigan doesn’t have a bad pass defense, but Toledo is going to have to go to the air to move the ball. There is decent potential here.
Cody Thompson ($4,300): Thompson was cruising along pretty well until going without a catch last week. Of course, Toledo only completed seven passes against Buffalo. Thompson had five touchdowns in the last four games prior to last week. He should get back on track against Western Michigan.
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