Welcome to the Sunday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Well after a few days off for a surprise (to the kids anyways) family trip to Disney World, I am back to reality today and back to some NBA DFS. I want to give a huge thanks to all the great NBA DFS writers we have at Fantasy CPR who held down the fort for me and based off some of the Twitter feedback from the readers, it sounds like you had some highly profitable days so hopefully I still have a column to come back to!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – A Vegas Standout:
Looking over this five game NBA DFS slate which kicks off at 7PM EST, there is one very clear standout game for those of you who start your research with Vegas data as the Lakers-Hawks by all measures looks like a DFS goldmine with a 241 total that is 20+ points higher than any other game on the slate. Not only does this game have a massive total but it also has by far the fastest projected pace and the Lakers/Hawks see the two biggest pace boosts of any teams in action today.
Honestly this sounds a whole lot like the Lakers-Kings game from last night that ended in a 101-86 fantasy dud. With the Lakers back to full strength this is becoming a team much like they were in the early going that was over-priced and over-owned with the usage and fantasy production being far too spread out.
Over the last week as an example, LeBron James ($19.4K) has “only” a 29.8% usage rate while putting up 1.2 FP/M while starters like Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram are not even putting up a fantasy point per minute of production. Now the match-up is ideal as the Hawks play at the fastest pace in the NBA this season and they rank 23rd in Defensive Rating but we saw last night the Kings had a similar pace profile and the Lakers barely cracked 100 points.
The Lakers have a 126 team total tonight which is 10+ points higher than any other team on the slate but do you know how many times in their last 10 games they have hit that? Twice – and they have not hit that total in any of their last eight games.
On the Hawks side of this game, we have a 115 total which is the second highest on the slate and with injuries to John Collins and Dewayne Dedmon, the Hawks will be short-handed once again in the front court. Trae Young ($13.5K) is the clear usage and fantasy point leader on this Hawks team but you are paying for 50+ fantasy points here from Young at this price point which is a mark he has hit only twice all season.
The more I look at this game the less I have interest honestly and it feels like the only reason I am starting here is because Vegas tells me to.
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:
If you opt to pivot off the Lakers-Hawks, you are staring at essentially the same game environments in the other four contests where the totals sit between 210-220 and with no higher than a 3 point spread.
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After taking a few days off from Picks and Pivots, you know I was itching to write about a certain Knicks guard and here we go right off the bat with a chance for some THJ love. Tim Hardaway Jr. ($13.5K) and the Knicks get a home match-up against the Magic today in what could be an interesting game stack if you opt to go more balanced on this slate.
Over the last week, THJ continues to do what he has been doing all season – sporting a 33% usage rate as the clear focal point of this Knicks offense and the Magic have been most vulnerable to SG/SF this season as they rank 25/27th in defensive rating against those positions thus far. Enes Kanter ($12.2K) has really taken to this second unit role, putting up a team high 1.5 FP/M pver the last week, putting up three straight double-doubles with 34, 34 and 65 fantasy points in his last three games. Kevin Knox ($7K) returned to the line-up for the Knicks off the bench and after playing only 4 and 9 minutes in his first two games, saw that number spike to 24 minutes last game out. This is really a price play as the upside for Knox at only $7K is massive if he gets 25+ minutes in this spot.
On the Magic side of this game, this is a pretty clear three-headed fantasy squad with Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier being the most consistent performers and getting the most consistent minutes on a nightly basis. Vuc and AG sit at $15K and $14K respectively on FantasyDraft which certainly puts them at price points that are consistent with their ceiling while Fournier may end up as the best point per dollar play here at only $12.2K as he has put up 30+ fantasy points in five straight games.
UPDATE – Keep an eye on the news here as Aaron Gordon may miss tonight’s game per the tweet below.
Already without F Jonathan Isaac (sprained R ankle), @OrlandoMagic could be without F Aaron Gordon (sprained L ankle) tonight vs. @nyknicks. Gordon suffered the injury in the 3rd Q of Friday’s defeat of WASH. AG gutted his way through that injury, playing 42 min & scoring 20 pts
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) November 11, 2018
If you step back and look at this game as a potential game stack – you could build a THJ/Kanter Knicks stack with a Vuc/Fournier/AG Magic stack and still have roughly $11K per player to fill out the rest of your roster. In my mind, you are building around a five man core that all have strong 30 point floors with considerable ceilings and they allow you to still afford some additional big-ticket one-offs to fill out the rest of your roster.
NBA DFS – One Off Plays:
The one player that jumped out as under-priced at first glance on this slate was Kyrie Irving ($13.7K) who returns from a one game absence after attending his grandfather’s funeral. Prior to missing his last game, Kyrie had gone for 50+ fantasy points in three of his last four outings and leads the team, over the last week with a massive 34% usage rate and over 1.5 FP/M.
We do not have much injury news to watch early in the day but the one I have my eye on is the Pacers Domanatas Sabonis who is questionable to play against the Rockets with a sprained right ankle.
Injury report for tomorrow's game at Houston.
— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) November 10, 2018
Domantas Sabonis: Questionable (sprained right ankle)
With this being the first game of the night, we should get the injury news we need which could open up some interesting value on the Pacers side. Sabonis has only missed one other game this season, back in October against Brooklyn in which Kyle O’Quinn ($6.1K) was the big man off the bench and went off for 32 fantasy points in only 19 minutes. I would definitely not take too much from that game with TJ Leaf being healthy now for the Pacers but the guy I really want to watch here is Myles Turner ($9K) who has seen his production and price simply plummet after three straight games with 20 or fewer fantasy points.
Last season in two meetings with Houston, Turner put up 32 and 37 fantasy points on the back of 13/8/3 blocks and 15/10/4 blocks, so this a match-up that he has had success in recently and if Sabonis misses, that is 30 minutes of court time that the Pacers need to replace against Clint Capela and the Rockets.
Speaking of Clint Capela ($12.2K) , he dominated this match-up last season with 45 and 44 fantasy points and put up 35 fantasy points when these teams squared off just a few days ago. The big news to watch here is the status of Carmelo Anthony who missed last night’s game with an “illness” amidst talks of that he is discussing how he fits into the Rockets plans this season.
While Carmelo Anthony is absent with an illness tonight against the Spurs, the Rockets and Anthony are discussing his role and how they might still be able to proceed together for the rest of the season, league sources tell ESPN. Talks are fluid.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) November 11, 2018
The Rockets have failed to score over 100 points in any of their last four games which includes the match-up with the Pacers from a few days ago so this is not a spot I will likely pay up for James Harden, but I do think the other pieces from Houston are interesting here today.
Eric Gordon ($10.7K) sees a 6% usage boost with Carmelo off the court this season and last night launched a whopping 26 shot attempts in 30 minutes including 14 three-pointers. Chris Paul ($13.1K) continues to see his price drop since the return of Harden to the line-up and just put up 35 fantasy points against Indiana the last time they played. What stands out in that game is that CP3 only had 9 points, getting the majority of his production from 13 assists and 5 rebounds which correlates well with Gordon who could be tasked with handling much of the secondary scoring load behind Harden. A CP3/Gordon/Capela stack is a nice mid-range trio that gives you a stable cash game floor with some serious GPP upside.
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings each and every day.
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