DraftKings NBA Main Picks November 25: Lock In Embiid against Nets
DraftKings NBA Main Picks November 25: Lock In Embiid against Nets
The other six games on our Sunday make up the main DraftKings NBA slate. The only team on a back to back is Sacramento, but we shouldn’t really have to worry about anyone resting. I think their average age is under 25.
The money line was nuts last night at 317.75 DraftKings points. One of my lineups snuck in at 320.5. The other still had 292 points, but still missed out
The winning lineup lineup was a massive 400.25 DraftKings points. He built around the huge nights from Towns, Durant, and Randle and got tons of value from Bagley, Eric Gordon, and Porter. He even survived a bad night from Bogdan Bogdanovic.
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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:
Kemba Walker ($9,800): Kemba put up 50.75 DraftKings points on Atlanta the first time around. He has cooled off a little lately, but another date with the Hawks should get Walker back on track in this one. Walker is capable of a big game here, but if this turns into a blowout, I don’t see Kemba going over 30 minutes.
Damian Lillard ($9,600): The Clippers have allowed the most fantasy points to point guards this year, but Lillard only got 40.5 DraftKings points on them the first time around. That’s going to be below where we need him, but Lillard is playing at a higher level lately. I expect him to at least get close to 50.
Kyle Lowry ($8,000): Lowry is one of the more inconsistent picks you can make on the middle tier, but I like this matchup against Miami with both Dragic and Tyler Johnson still out. Either Ellington or McGruder will be charged with containing Lowry here. Good luck! Lowry could be in for a really big game.
Spencer Dinwiddie ($5,900): Dinwiddie has three straight games of more than 5x value after a bit of a disappointing game against the Clippers last weekend. It seems safe to use Dinwiddie here, but his upside is not really all that much with his price up in this area. He is still a strong cash game play, but you can probably do better in GPP formats.
Jeremy Lin ($4,800): The struggles of Trae Young have left the door wide open for Lin, and he has taken full advantage. Lin has 82 DraftKings points over the last two games compared to Young’s 26. The Hawks haven’t made the move to starting Lin yet, and they probably wont. They are rebuilding after all. However, with Lin playing like this, they are going to keep showcasing him as a possible trade target so long as Young keeps struggling.
Trey Burke ($4,700): DFS players are going to be abandoning ship on Burke like unicorns off of Noah’s Ark. However, that may be premature. First off, the Knicks rotations are a bit maddening. If Burke is able to hit some shots in his first allotment of court time, he’s going to stay on the floor. The upside is still there with Burke, but the risk is more pronounced now. That said, Emmanuel Mudiay is $300 cheaper and racked up 46.25 DraftKings points on Friday. It may be more prudent to go with the guy that actually starts.
My pick: Lin(PG); Lin(PG), Mudiay(G)
DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:
D’Angelo Russell ($7,600): Russell didn’t have a huge game against the Sixers the first time around, but LeVert did. Most of LeVert’s production has been absorbed by Russell, so I expect a strong game from him here. Russell has had two bad games in a row. He should be able to get back on track here.
Donovan Mitchell ($7,100): Mitchell is apparently not on the injury report here, so he is on the likely side of questionable I would think. If Mitchell does start and play his normal allotment of minutes, this could be a big game for him. Mitchell torched the Kings for 45.5 DraftKings points on Wednesday. if he’s healthy, he should be somewhere in that area again.
Josh Richardson ($6,800): Richardson continues to be one of the driving forces for the Heat even with a revolving door lineup around him. His offensive production did tick upwards a bit with both Dragic and Johnson out. I expect that to be the case again tonight with the Heat still beat up in the backcourt. Richardson takes his place as another strong mid range pick.
Jeremy Lamb ($6,000): Lamb has three straight games of more than 30 DraftKings points, and has topped that mark six times in the last ten games. He is trending upwards, and becoming the second scorer that Charlotte desperately needs. It’s harder for Lamb to hit 6x value or more at this price, but we are to the point where if he doesn’t hit 5x, I’ll be surprised.
Lou Williams ($5,900): As long as the price on Williams stays here in this area, DraftKings is pretty much begging us to play him. Williams had 33.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Portland, so 5x value is pretty much a given at this point. We all know what his ceiling looks like, so I’m a fan of the upside and floor at this price.
Wayne Ellington ($4,300): Ellington started and played 29 minutes with Dragic and Johnson both out on Friday. Expect about the same from him here today as well. Ellington picked up 29.5 DraftKings points in that game. If he is going to stay in that range 6x value is all but assured for Ellington.
My pick: Ellington(SG); Ellington(SG)
DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:
Ben Simmons ($9,200): Jimmy Butler is in danger of missing this game, and if he does, Simmons could be in for a huge one in his stead. Even if Butler doesn’t miss this game, Simmons has been a beast lately. He has four straight games of at least 45 DraftKings points. Simmons also racked up 46.5 DraftKings points in just 27 minutes in the first meeting with the Nets.
Tobias Harris ($7,900): Memphis wrapped up Harris pretty tightly on Friday night, but that shouldn’t have some as a surprise to anyone. Prior to that game though, Harris had eight straight games of 5x value or better. One of those was against Portland. We should see another good showing from Harris here.
Danilo Gallinari ($5,800): Gallinari is fine, thank you very much. His return to the court on Friday spawned 38.25 DraftKings points in 39 minutes. I see no reason not to use Gallinari here. His perimeter shot seems to be spot on right now.
Joe Ingles ($5,800): Utah has played the Kings twice already. Ingles broke 30 DraftKings points in each of those games. After a couple of horrid games, Ingles seems to be back on track now, and should be a solid mid range pick for both cash and GPP lineups most nights.
Kyle Anderson ($5,000): Anderson doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he has at least 20 DraftKings points in each of the last dozen games, and has topped 25 in three straight and eight overall in that span. I really like Anderson in cash games, but for GPP’s, you probably are looking for more upside.
Rodney McGruder ($4,800): Of course, on the night both Dragic and Johnson are out, McGruder goes ice cold from the floor and had his first sub 25 DraftKings point game in weeks. The thing that sticks out to me though is that the volume was there. If the shots fall, McGruder is getting at least 6x value. I expect the volume to remain about the same again tonight.
Iman Shumpert ($3,600): Shumpert has at least 8x value at this price in each of his last three games. In two of those, he hit over 10x value! The price is going to jump a whole lot the next time the Kings play, so enjoy this huge bargain while you can!
My pick: Simmons(SF), Shumpert(G); Harris(SF)
DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:
Kawhi Leonard ($9,400): It’s interesting that Kawhi is now eligible at PF on DraftKings since he has played the two and the three more. However, if you wish to go wing heavy, you can now cram Kawhi in there in place of a big. After a somewhat inconsistent start in Toronto, Leonard has hit 5x value in three of the last four games. He’s safe to use if you want to go this route.
Montrezl Harrell ($7,300): Are people still fading Harrell? Why? Harrell has hit at least 5x value in a dozen straight games. It’s getting harder for him to do at this price, but even if you are going off of this alone, Harrell has still hit 5x value in four of the last six games. I see no reason not to use him here again. Harrell’s numbers were actually better with Gallinari back on the court.
Pascal Siakam ($6,100): Siakam is a somewhat less consistent version of Ibaka. However, Siakam also has more upside. Conversely, the downside is there as well as we saw on Friday. Siakam struggled with the few shots he did take and it knocked him under 28 DraftKings points for the first time this month. I see no reason not to go back to him here. I think that was just a blip this year, unlike last year when it meant a significant downturn was on the way.
Jaren Jackson ($5,900): JaMychal Green has been marred by inconsistency since his return, much like he has been in his brief NBA career. The Grizzlies are quickly figuring out that the don’t have to worry about that nearly as much with Jackson. While Green was out, Jackson was a hot fantasy commodity because he was consistently hitting 5x value. Jackson is a bit more of a risk now, but it seems as though Memphis is willing to give Jackson enough minutes to keep hitting value. He has in two out of three games since Green’s return.
Marvin Bagley ($4,700): Utah is the only team to hold Bagley under 40 DraftKings points in the last three games. Unfortunately, that is who his Kings have to play again tonight. However, we have seen the Kings steadily increase Bagley’s workload, and they like what they see. I’d even be willing to chance him against Utah here too.
Marvin Williams ($3,800): Williams has seen his minutes and his production rise over the last two games. That should continue to be the case. Williams has been getting more than enough minutes to make him a nice value play. He has over 20 DraftKings points in each of the last two games, and in four of the last six. That makes him a pretty good value bet.
My pick: Jackson(PF), Williams(F); Harrell(PF), Bagley(F)
DraftKings NBA Center
Joel Embiid ($10,900): Four words: He’s playing the Nets!
Marc Gasol ($8,900): The Knicks have been surprisingly good against centers this year, but Gasol has topped 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. So much of Gasol’s output comes from something other than points that I’m fine using him here because of the high floor.
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Rudy Gobert ($7,400): It feels a bit of an unnecessary risk using Whiteside against Toronto, especially when we have Gobert at this price. Gobert has gone over 40 DraftKings points in both games against the Kings so far.
Serge Ibaka ($6,200): it was yet another game of at least 30 DraftKings points for Ibaka, his sixth straight and ninth out of his last 11 games. At this point in his career, it’s pretty rare to see Ibaka above 6x value, so he is probably better left for cash games. However, if you are on the lookout of a GPP anchor, Ibaka is a good start. You know what you’re getting from him.
Jarrett Allen ($5,700): Allen held his own against Embiid in the first meeting, going for 35 DraftKings points. That’s why I love the UTIL slot on DraftKings. I kind of want to use Embiid and run it back with Allen. Am I wrong?
Noah Vonleh ($5,300): I don’t even really care about the opponent at this point. Vonleh has three straight games of more than 40 DraftKings points, yet he only needs 26.5 to hit value. Play him. I don’t care if it’s against Memphis. The value threshold is so low based on the current output.
Dewayne Dedmon ($4,400): Dedmon is never going to hit higher than 6x value, and frankly, even that is pushing it sometimes. However, he has gotten pretty adept at hitting 5x. That makes Dedmon a solid punt option, albeit with little upside.
My pick: Embiid(C), Gobert(UTIL); Embiid(C), Allen(UTIL)
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