Fantasy Basketball Picks – NBA DFS Game by Game Breakdown – December 10

This Monday slate brings us 11 games of NBA DFS action which leaves us with tons of choices for our Fantasy Basketball Picks.

We have a giant 11 game slate coming off a tiny three gamer on Sunday and there’s no need to give too much intro here. There’s boatloads of injuries and factors going into this slate already so let’s go to work with our top Fantasy Basketball Picks.

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Wizards at Pacers 

Wizards Breakdown 

The first place we need to go is it looks like John Wall could sit, so you can fire up Bradley Beal once again with confidence at his price tag. He carries a 31.5 percent usage rate and a 1.23 FPPM with Wall off the floor. Austin Rivers would likely start again and would be hard to pass up at $4,000, even with the Pacers being tough on point guards. Rivers played 34 minutes against Atlanta when Wall was missing and it would be surprising if he didn’t do that again. Tomas Satoransky is in the same boat and plays the facilitator role when he’s on the floor with an assist ratio of 36.0. That could help Beal focus on what makes up a large part of his game, which is putting the ball into the hoop. Otto Porter might be too expensive for my blood but he gets 1.10 FPPM without Wall. The only catch is the Pacers are difficult on just about every position from an individual standpoint.

Personal Plays – Beal, Rivers, Satoransky if Wall is out

Players to Consider – Porter, Markieff Morris, Kelly Oubre(depending on Wall as well)

Pacers Breakdown 

The Wizards have been getting smacked inside without Dwight Howard and that puts Myles Turner back on the board. The problem is he’s expensive, especially considering some of the other options on the slate. Turner might be a little more attractive on FanDuel where blocks are worth three points because he just continues to be a block machine. While Darren Collison comes with some relative safety, the price is out of control to me. I’ll play Cory Joseph for over $2,000 cheaper and call it a day. With the weakness in the paint for the Wizards(second most rebounds given up in the paint), Domantas Sabonis is in play but remains a GPP player only at his price tag. The Pacers look like just an average team on this slate.

Personal Plays – Sabonis in GPP

Players to Consider – Turner, Collison/Joseph, Bojan Bogdanovic

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Pistons at Sixers

Pace Ranks – Pistons at 14th, Sixers at 7th

Pistons Breakdown 

We just saw this game but the complexion of this matchup should be different. Let’s start in the backcourt, where the Pistons are missing all sorts of bodies. They should be down at least three players which makes Reggie Jackson is a perfectly fine play. He’s likelier to see 34 minutes like he did against Philly the first time and should be a safe bet for 30 DK points. To that point, Langston Galloway has seen 30+ minutes the past two games and is near minimum on DK. He’s a really nice punt option given the situation.

I’ll go right back to Blake Griffin, seeing how he just had a massive game against Philly . Sure, Joel Embiid missed that meeting but Griffin is averaging well over 60 DK points against the Sixers this year even with Embiid. Philly doesn’t have a capable defender to guard Griffin at all. I flat refuse to play Andre Drummond against Embiid given their rivalry and the fact that Drummond has never figure Embiid out. He’s likely to be in foul trouble through this game.

Personal Plays – Griffin, Jackson, Galloway

Players to Consider – Drummond as a super risky GPP play

Sixers Breakdown 

After missing the last matchup and with reports buzzing that Joel Embiid might be unhappy, this is a great spot for him to shut everyone up. I don’t know how you can get away from him in this spot at a price tag that is under $10,000. I’d play him under in any matchup given the price and he gets a great spot on top of it. He mashes Drummond to an average game of 30+ points and 11 rebounds in five career matchups. Ben Simmons and Jimmy Butler are fine options but not players I’m jamming in with Embiid back in the fold. J.J. Redick is averaging a career high in shots and points per game and excels off screens which meshes well with Embiid. He’s a safe play though may lack a lot of upside. Mike Muscala and Wilson Chandler see some minutes but benefited greatly from no Embiid last game. There are likely better low-priced options as we move along here.

Personal Plays – Embiid, Redick

Players to Consider – Butler, Simmons, Chandler, Muscala

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Pelicans at Celtics

Pace Ranks  – Pelicans at 3rd, Celtics at 22nd

Pelicans Breakdown

Davis does not carry a questionable tag on DK but he likely will by Monday. He left Sunday’s game with a hip injury and while he did reappear, he didn’t close the game and Alvin Gentry says the injury could get worse overnight. Assuming Davis is out, Julius Randle is the chalkiest player on the slate. He has a 31.8 percent usage and 1.52 FPPM with Davis off the floor, which leads the team by far. Jrue Holiday is 26.3 percent with 1.16 FPPM but is slightly bested by Nikola Mirotic at 1.21. While Boston isn’t a team that I always target against and could be heavily favored without Davis, it’s hard to pass these guys with their opportunity. I would rank them as Randle being the clear must have in cash games to match the ownership, with Mirotic and Holiday being tied for second. Mirotic is cheaper but recently had a nasty illness which made him lose weight. That’s something to consider. If Davis is active, he’s under $11,000 and worth the risk in GPP. Much of the slate hangs on his availability.

Personal Plays – Randle, Miortic, Holiday

Players to Consider – Davis in GPP

Celtics Breakdown  

Horford and Aaron Baynes could be out, which would put Daniel Thies back on the map after his monster game. He went full berserker mode the last game but drew a very soft Bulls frontcourt in a blowout. I’m not sure the situation is the same but the price isn’t high enough to not play him if both men in front of him are out. Despite his terrible game last time out, I want to play Kyrie Irving. The Pelicans have been the second worst team against point guards this year he did go for 58 DK points in the first meeting. That outcome could potentially happen again but man the Celtics are on fire right now. I do kind of like Gordon Hayward and Marcus Morris in a pace up spot but I want to keep an eye on the Vegas line here. If it reaches towards double digits, my enthusiasm is tempered. Boston has plenty of Bodie to roll out in a blowout situation.

Personal Plays – Irving, Hayward, Thies

Players to Consider – Morris, Jayson Tatum(who I’ve yet to play once)

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Kings at Bulls

Pace Ranks – Kings at 2nd, Bulls at 19th

Kings Breakdown 

Fox has seen a six point jump in real points, almost a full rebound more a game, and three assists more a game in his second season. He’s just seen a huge improvement and the Bulls are the eighth worst in the league against point guards. The price is higher but I still think it’s more than fair.

Both of these teams are in the bottom seven in points in the paint and bottom three in rebounds so you have to be interested in Willie Cauley-Stein. Even with Marvin Bagley back in the fold, WCS is still good for near 30 points per game in a great matchup. He’s barely $6,000 and is a worthy candidate for one of those center spots. Speaking of Bagley, he managed to fold out in 10 minutes in his last game. I don’t know if I should be annoyed or impressed but his price is too low. He could walk into a double-double off the bench in about 25 minutes.

Personal Plays – Fox, Bagley, WCS

Players to Consider – Bogdan Bogdanovic, Buddy Hield

Bulls Breakdown 

I’ll be frank, I hope Bobby Portis and Kris Dunn sit this game out. If they do, I’ll feel more comfortable using Bulls players because the minutes will be more concentrated. Lauri Markkanen is still under-priced given his ability and this game shouldn’t be a blowout like last one. He had consecutive 40 DK point games before the Bulls got run out of the gym, which shouldn’t be a fear in this one. Players like Zach LaVine and Jabari Parker are just too cheap going against a team that gives up the fourth most points. Parker is still seeing enough minutes and usage to warrant consideration in what should be a high scoring game. If you feel risky, this could be a spot for Wendell Carter Jr as a GPP play. He’s had trouble with fouls but the Kings only draw the 11th most per game. As of late Sunday night, this game looks to be one of the most stackable on the slate that doesn’t have a higher spread attached to it.

Personal Plays – Markkanen, LaVine, Parker

Players to Consider – Carter, Jr.

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Cavaliers at Bucks

Pace Ranks – Cavs at 28th, Bucks at 5th

Cavaliers Breakdown 

The biggest question is how interested we should be in this game. We need to get a player pool of around 200 players or so down to eight or nine, depending on site. The spread is 14 points, which is massive. That could kill any fantasy goodness and that really holds true for Tristan Thompson first and foremost. He’s averaging 30+ minutes a night and if this gets out of hand, he could see way less than that. Thompson is third in rebounding chances and that could give him an advantage over Brook Lopez. He tends to stay outside of the basket and doesn’t rebound well but the Cavs might not be able to keep it close enough. I would guess Collin Sexton would play most of his minutes no matter what the score is but it’s just that – a guess. Jordan Clarkson and Alec Burks also fall into that boat because the Cavs could be shorthanded but this game is flat-out ugly.

Personal Plays – None

Players to Consider – Clarkson, Burks, Sexton

Bucks Breakdown 

On the flip side of this game, I’m hard pressed to want a Bucks player as well. Giannis Antetokoumnpo is the highest priced player tonight and I have just no interest. He only played 26 minutes when the Bucks smashed the Pistons and that’s disaster on that price tag. Khris Middleton saw his minutes go back into the 30’s and he could shoot the lights out in limited playing time, but the spread is terrifying. I think the best course is to treat this game as a very risky GPP investment.

Personal Plays – None

Players to Consider – Antetokoumnpo, Middleton, Eric Bledsoe

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Jazz at Thunder

Pace Ranks – Jazz at 21st, Thunder at 8th

Jazz Breakdown 

As always, we start noting that the Jazz are on a back to back. They’re not the easiest team to get excited about here. I love playing(and watching) Donovan Mitchell but the Thunder are giving up the fifth fewest points overall and the 11th fewest points to shooting guard. He can always heat up but Mitchell is purely GPP tonight.

The center matchup is very intriguing. Rudy Gobert and Steven Adams are both top 11 in rebounding chances per game and top three in paint touches, meaning they could battle each other to a stalemate. If I had to play one, it would be Adams because of the price difference and the pick and roll factor, which we’ll get to in one moment. The rest of the Jazz seem fairly priced, but against a great defensive squad don’t seem to fit most of my builds right now.

Personal Plays – Mitchell in GPP

Players to Consider – Gobert, Ricky Rubio

Thunder Breakdown 

I’m never going to talk you out of playing Russell Westbrook, especially given that he’s playing like vintage Westbrook right now. The matchup might not be special but anytime he’s not the most expensive player on the slate coming off consecutive 70 point games, you have to give him a serious look. What interests me in Steven Adams is he goes pick and roll a little over 22 percent of the time, scoring 47 percent of the time. That’s been the Achilles heel for Gobert all season long and we now that Westbrook and Adams can work that fact of the game in a big way. Adams might not be a core play but he’s an interesting GPP option. Paul George isn’t someone I’ve used a lot but he brings a bit of a safety net with him. The usage is over 30 percent and the FPPm is up at 1.35 so the price is fair, but he might be more of a cash play while Westbrook is active.

Personal Plays – Westbrook, Adams in GPP

Players to Consider – George, Jerami Grant

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Magic at Mavericks

Pace Ranks – Magic at 25th, Mavericks at 13th

Magic Breakdown 

I find myself gravitating towards Nikola Vucivec from this game pretty heavily. Vucivec  is 17th in paint touches and Dallas is giving up seventh highest field goal percentage on shots within 5 feet. That might be surprising with DeAndre Jordan patrolling the paint but Vuc is shooting over 71 percent and 33 percent of his field goal attempts have come from that range. Past Vucivec, my interest in Magic is fairly limited. Aaron Gordon is expensive for his normal production while the rest of Orlando is a supporting cast role. You can play Terrence Ross and Evan Fournier as the Mavericks are giving up the highest field goal percentage on shots 25 feet or more from the basket. With those two, you need them to hit the three ball because the rest of the contributions might be limited. They’re GPP only options.

Personal Plays – Vucivec

Players to Consider – Gordon, Ross, Fournier

Mavericks Breakdown 

One of the best salary savers of the night might come from this game. Jalen Brunson has been drawing starts in the place of Dennis Smith Jr, who is very questionable for this tilt. If he’s out and Brunson starts again, it’s hard to turn away from a 25-30 minute player at a punt price on DK. He’s shooting the ball very well in two games but he’s been over 20 DK points both time. More importantly, J.J. Berea has not take up more minutes. Fromm there, Dallas is fairly unappealing. DeAndre Jordan is fine but the price is too high for a player that just rebounds and dunks. He does get a chance to hang in the paint a lot given the style Vucivec plays, it’s more the other centers I could play. Harrison Barnes has seen a dip in points, assists and rebounds with the addition of a certain rookie. That player is Luka Doncic, who is safe but has no upside at his price so he would be cash only. Even then, Orlando is playing at a slow pace and the game doesn’t look overly attractive.

Personal Plays – Brunson if starting

Players to Consider – Doncic, Jordan

DALLAS, TX – OCTOBER 25: Marc Gasol #33 of the Memphis Grizzlies shoots the ball against the Dallas Mavericks in the second half at American Airlines Center on October 25, 2017 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Grizzlies at Nuggets

Pace Ranks – Grizzlies at 30th, Nuggets at 26th

Grizzlies Breakdown 

This game is quite interesting. On the Memphis side, Marc Gasol should be able to have his way down low. For one, Nikola Jokic is not a great defender by any stretch. Secondly, the loss of Paul Millsap hurts the front court and that should show up in the rebounding percentage. Denver leads right now but we’ll see if that can hold. Gasol is second in the NBA in touches per game, just dominating the ball for Memphis. I’d much rather play Gasol than Mike Conley, who has a finger injury. I don’t think it’s coincidence that he’s shot 6-24 since it cropped up even though he’s playing normal minutes. I’m not that interested in a player that could be dragged down by an injury that bothers their shot. Jaren Jackson Jr. is the ultimate GPP play. If he doesn’t foul, he has 45 point upside every single game. The issue is he leads the NBA in fouls per game so predicting when he’s not in foul trouble is quite the ask. Kyle Anderson is always a safe cash play in my book with all the different ways he gets on the stat sheet.

Personal Plays  – Gasol, Anderson

Players to Consider – Jackson Jr., Conley

Nuggets Breakdown 

I have to say that DK kind of dropped the ball with their pricing on the Nuggets. Since Friday night, Denver has lost Paul Millsap to a broken toe and announced that Gary Harris would miss a few weeks. This is in addition to Will Barton still being sidelined and Jamaal Murray being questionable. That’s four core players….and DK flat didn’t do anything about it. They moved the price on Trey Lyles, Juancho Hernangomez and Nikola Jokic a combined $700 knowing all that injury info and all three players coming off monster games versus Atlanta. Especially if Murray misses, these players are flat-out not priced correctly. Denver’s value could reign supreme again, and be sure not to forget the guards if Murray is out. Monte Morris played 30 minutes when Murray departed the last game and paid off with 32 DK points. We need more info but Denver could be in an amazing fantasy spot despite the mediocre matchup on paper.

Personal Plays – Jokic, Hernangomez, Lyles, Morris if Murray is out

Players to Consider – Malik Beasley, Torrey Craig if Denver is down to near eight players total

Fantasy Basketball Picks  – Clippers at Suns

Pace Ranks – Clippers at 9th, Suns at 20th

Clippers Breakdown 

I really wish the Suns were better at basketball, because their ineptitude limits how much you can safely use Clipper players. I’m not willing to pay the price for Tobias Harris, Danilo Gallinari, Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams when I think this game should be in hand by the third quarter. It’s really a shame because the Clips will probably put up some fantasy production but the other two late games are better served to use as a late night hammer. I will say the one Clipper I like in GPP is everyone’s favorite, Boban Marjanovic. I feel like this could be a sneaky spot for him because the game shouldn’t be close and the Suns have been destroyed by centers. They’re the second worst team for DK points and allow the eighth most points in the paint. He could legitimately go 6-8x in 15 minutes given this spot. Look at the 32 DK points against Memphis is 13 minutes(my word!).

Personal Plays – Boban

Players to Consider – Harris, Gallo, Harrell, Williams if you think the Suns can keep it close

Suns Breakdown 

Since Devin Booker has been lost to a hamstring injury, the Suns have been a dumpster fire. There’s not much way around that and they’ve yet to be competitive. Now they also might be without Deandre Ayton, who is questionable with an illness. I have some interest in T.J. Warren, who owns 24 percent if the usage with Booker off the floor but the blowout concern certainly applies to him as well. I really think it’s best to avoid any game with the Suns until Booker comes back and I can’t see too many plays from Phoenix, unless you want to risk Richaun Holmes if Ayton is out. This game could have had some incredible appeal if both squads were at full health.

Personal Plays – None

Players to Consider – Ayton, Warren, Holmes if no Ayton

PHOENIX, AZ – NOVEMBER 13: Kyle Kuzma #0 of the Los Angeles Lakers high fives teammates after hitting a three point shot against the Phoenix Suns during the second half of the NBA game at Talking Stick Resort Arena on November 13, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Lakers defeated the Suns 100-93. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Heat at Lakers

Pace Ranks – Heat at 10th, Lakers at 4th

Heat Breakdown 

Unfortunately at this time, there’s still a lot to be decided with the Heat. They have a lot of questionable tags so it’s a situation that needs clarity we don’t have yet. The one play we do know is Bam Adebayo, who will continue to sub in for Hassan Whiteside. He’s still under $6,000 and is an auto play, having racked up 43 and 34 DK points in two games as a starter. The 34 point effort came despite getting into early foul trouble, making it even more impressive.

Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson and Josh Richardson are all questionable. If these players don’t play, Justice Winslow and Dwayne Wade come to the forefront. Winslow is coming off consecutive 40 point efforts and could continue to see a larger role with missing players. If you’re into narratives like some on the CPR crew, this should be the last time Wade plays against good friend LeBron James and he may need to play 30 minutes like last game. I’m hoping we get some kind of updates on the Heat before lock at 7 PM since this is a late game.

Personal Plays – Adebayo, Wade no matter what sprinkled in

Players to Consider – TBD by injury reports through the day

Lakers Breakdown 

The Lakers are surprisingly easy right now because it’s either LeBron, Kyle Kuzma or for some brave souls, Lonzo Ball. With Brandon Ingram out, Kuzma should continue to be rock solid with five consecutive games of 40+ DK points. Some of that streak came with Ingram anyways but it’s more likely to continue now. LeBron is the usage monster we all figured on and the Heat play at a nice pace to give him continuous chances. I personally don’t have the stomach for Ball, who has the ceiling of near 40 DK points with a single digit floor. If you can predict when he plays which game, be my guest to set my lineup. Josh Hart is sort of in the same boat as he’s played 35+ minutes in consecutive games with no Ingram but has 13 and 30+ DK points to show for it.  LeBron has had some floor games but he might be the stud to pay for given the Lakers current situation.

Personal Plays – LeBron, Kuzma

Players to Consider – Ball, Hart, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Wolves at Warriors

Pace Ranks – Wolves at 12th, Warriors at 17th

Wolves Breakdown 

This is another game where the spread is a slight issue, as Vegas expects it to be healthy margin of victory. For the Wolves, I think it’s narrowed down to two plays. You could pay up and go with Karl Anthony-Towns, who is at am monster 1.43 FPPM without Jimmy Butler on the floor this season. The second is Robert Covington, who is expected to be fine after missing the last game with a knee injury. He’s top 20 in minutes per game and even though he’s not the most productive player ever, you’re a safe bet for 30 DK points almost every time at his minutes. This game could afford him more opportunities as well. Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose continue to bite into each other so unless something changes, I won’t be playing them much if at all.

Personal Plays – KAT, Covington

Players to Consider – Rose, Teague, Andrew Wiggins

Warriors Breakdown 

For one of the few times this season, we actually have the big four from Golden State healthy and ready to go. That is helping the spread grow so large and it means that there’s a bigger chance that you could choose the wrong Warrior on any given night. Kevin Durant and Steph Curry are priced fairly but I think Draymond Green might be my favorite player of the game from the Golden State side. He’s not supposed to have minutes restriction and is only $7,000. I have a feeling Green is going to want to prove how important he is to the team after some of the drama going on out there. The Wolves give up the 11th highest field goal percentage from three so the Warriors could feast on that.

Personal Plays – Green, Durant

Players to Consider – Curry, Klay Thompson

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