ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania 2018 picks

Here are all the ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania 2018 picks

Bowl season is upon us once again. The college football season is not done just yet! We still have Capital One Bowl Mania! I still have 41 more picks to make, 40 of which I will make against the spread. More on that later.

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Are you in a bowl pool where you need to make all of your bowl picks before the games begin? Or do you play ESPN’s Capital One Bowl Mania? In case you do, this is the place to get every game picked before they all begin. I will place them in order of confidence for those of you that play that format.

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The good part about this is that we can change our confidence points up until the game locks. I will do some moving here and there as we get news of who is playing in their team’s bowl game and who is not. I will update my movements in this article and on Twitter.

Since it doesn’t make sense to pick all of these games against the spread right now, those will be done at a later date. This is just for those of us that need to pick all at once. These are in order from least confidence (1) to most (41). Because, you know, it’s more dramatic that way.

(1) Northwestern over Utah

This is one game that I truly see as a toss up. I can see both teams winning and for various reasons. Utah has the athletes to give Northwestern problems, but the Utes have had issues getting the ball to their playmakers. If Utah has Tyler Huntley back I may flip this. Until then, the Big Ten(14) and their bowl record over the last couple of years speaks for itself. The Wildcats get the benefit of the doubt for now.

(2) Oklahoma over Alabama

Dammit, I believe! Tua’s high ankle sprain should be mostly healed in the three weeks before this game is played. Alabama has not played an offense anywhere close to this potent. This is going to be a high scoring game. I don’t know that Oklahoma can really come up with a stop, but I think they can come up with a turnover. That may be enough. I know everyone but me is picking Alabama with a lot of confidence, and I get it. However, remember happened last time when Oklahoma had no chance against the Tide. This may be a waste of two points, but you can’t fault me believing in my team, even if it is a foolish pick.

(3) Texas over Georgia

Georgia really only played one good game all season and it just happened to be at a time when they were the only ticket in town. The Texas run defense is their strong point, and that just happens to be Georgia’s strength. Texas’ receivers are huge and will give the Georgia secondary some problems. This isn’t really about the teams though. Georgia is the better team, but they are essentially on the road and may be disinterested after what they view as being snubbed for the playoff. Honestly, they wouldn’t view it that way if they quit watching ES(EC)PN.

(4) Notre Dame over Clemson

This is going to be another wildly unpopular pick, and I get it. I really do. However, Notre Dame’s win over Michigan is far more impressive than anything Clemson did. It’s not Clemson’s fault. They just happened to catch the ACC in a down year. Miami fell apart. Florida State had the worst team they’ve had in my lifetime. Virginia Tech had their worst team of the last 25 years. This isn’t being talked about because Clemson did what they were supposed to do. They kept winning in convincing fashion. Something can be said for that, but it also masked their weaknesses. How will Trevor Lawrence respond when pressured every down? No one has done that to him. The Irish will. If it comes down to a starter not playing well, the Irish have somewhere to turn. Clemson doesn’t. Notre Dame’s schedule wasn’t the beast it looked to be early on, but they are more tested than Clemson is.

(5) Iowa State over Washington State

This is going to be a very good game. Both teams are well coached and both teams know how to move the ball. However, Iowa State’s calling card is their pass defense. Washington State doesn’t really run the ball at all. This is going to be a lower scoring game than most think, but I do think that Washington State is a bit deflated. They had a clear path to the playoff. They even had GameDay in Pullman! A blizzard derailed them, and we really don’t know how much damage this did.

(6) Nevada over Arkansas State

The Red Wolves have a strong quarterback, but that defense was routinely gouged in and out of Sun Belt play. The Wolfpack are very balanced and have playmakers at every position. There are some fun players to watch in this one, namely Arkansas State QB Justice Hansen, Nevada QB Ty Gangi, Nevada WR McLane Mannix, and Nevada freshman RB Toa Taua. The Nevada faithful are going to head south in droves for this one, so it will feel like a road game for the Red Wolves.

(7) Tulane over Louisiana

I love rivalries in bowl games. Especially ones that aren’t played as much as they should be. Tulane was more tested in the AAC, and game up with a big win against Navy to propel them into a bowl. The Cajuns are a good team, but I’m riding the Wave!

(8) Wake Forest over Memphis

There is a good chance that Memphis runs for 400 yards in this game as well, but Wake Forest will be able to pass all over the Tigers just like UCF did, and Greg Dortch is a better receiver than anything the Knights could throw out there. This is going to be one of the higher scoring games of the bowls, but I just can’t trust that Memphis defense.

(9) Marshall over South Florida

This is a road game for Marshall, but I can’t ignore how bad USF played down the stretch. This team was actually ranked at one point this season, but dropped their last five games after a 7-0 start, including a blowout loss to Tulane. Marshall played well with the exception of the makeup game against Virginia Tech.

(10) Fresno State over Arizona State

If N’Keal Harry were playing, this would be a different story. Fresno is sound on defense and can move the ball on offense. Arizona State plays fast and sometimes loose. They have playmakers all over the field that could give Fresno problems, but Arizona State has had lapses on offense and defense this year. I’m going with the more sound team in Fresno.

(11) North Carolina A&T over Alcorn State

The Aggies are back after playing in the Celebration Bowl last year. They won against Grambling last year, and have to be the favorites here against Alcorn State as well. This is always a good game and always a close game. What better way to kick off Bowl season?

(12) Troy over Buffalo

I do think that Buffalo is the more talented team, but this is essentially a road game. The Trojans will be driving the 75 miles to Mobile in droves to watch their team try to take on the larger than life Tyree Jackson. The Bulls fell apart against Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship and were bulldozed by Ohio two weeks before that. This team is not playing well right now, and Troy is good enough to take advantage.

(13) UAB over Northern Illinois

I’m going with the feel good story here. UAB dropped football all together just four years ago. In their second year of having football back, the Blazers are ten game winners and Conference USA Champions. NIU has struggled in bowl games recently despite their run of MAC Championships, and a lot of Blazer fans are going to head south to Boca Raton for this one.

(14) Toledo over Florida International

The games in Nassau over the past couple of years have been the craziest of the bowls, and I doubt this is an exception. The Rockets have played very well lately, and they seem to have their next great running back in Bryant Koback. Toledo has only lost to NIU since Koback became the starter. I’m not convinced the Panthers can stop him either.

(15) West Virginia over Syracuse:

I moved this game down A LOT. I may even flip to the Orange if I lose faith in Jack Allison, which is a real possibility. The saving grace for West Virginia is that Will Grier decided to sit out the bowl game early enough that Allison will get plenty of reps with the first team. I still have the Mountaineers because of the awful Syracuse pass defense, but stay tuned. This could change in the next 16 days.

(16) National Championship Game, TBA

I do think that Alabama and Oklahoma would beat either team on the other side. The semifinals are on the 29th, so we will have plenty of places to move this up or down depending on the matchup.

(17) Vanderbilt over Baylor

Baylor is a team that was really all over the place this year. Vanderbilt, despite the 6-6 record, was far more consistent. They defend well, they run the ball well, and they can throw if they have to. Baylor just kind of flies by the seat of their pants. However, the Bears are just happy to be here after most of the players suffered through last season’s 1-11 nightmare.

(18) Ohio over San Diego State

The Aztecs completely collapsed down the stretch while the Bobcats won five of their last six behind the tough running of A.J. Oulette. I first thought that SDSU’s issues were because of injuries, but it became apparent they were not. The loss to Hawaii at home to end the regular season clinches this, and I may end up raising the points on this. Ohio looks like the far better team right now.

(19) Florida over Michigan

Both of these teams have really good defenses, so I expect a struggle for both offenses here. Despite Shea Patterson‘s time in the SEC, he never played Florida. What he is going to find is a defense that will clamp down even harder than Ohio State’s did. Most of the time I will give the Big Ten the benefit of the doubt, but not here. There is simply no excuse for Michigan’s quarterback play to be as bad as it has the last four years with Harbaugh as the coach. Florida may have to score a defensive touchdown to win this, but I think they do.

(20) Cincinnati over Virginia Tech

Someone poked the bear. The Hokies were sleepwalking through the ACC and even got run over by an Old Dominion truck, but something clicked in the last two weeks. However, Cincinnati’s defense is as tough as ever, and the Hokie pass defense still has some issues. Cincy’s offense is growing under Desmond Ridder and put up some big numbers later in the year. The Hokies stop here.

(21) Purdue over Auburn

Auburn always seems to have motivation issues in bowl games, and this year is going to be really tough for them. The Tigers were a top ten team in the preseason and rose even higher after a week 1 win over Washington. They ended up losing to lowly Tennessee during the SEC schedule, were dominated by Mississippi State’s defense, and got throttled by rival Alabama. Purdue blasted Ohio State by 29 points. Gus Malzahn is 1-4 in bowl games for Auburn, and Jarrett Stidham took a giant step backwards this year. There is a good chance that Purdue lights them up here.

(22) Mississippi State over Iowa

Both teams have stout defenses, but Iowa will be without leading receiver, TE Noah Fant. Iowa was also gouged by Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez, whose skill set is very similar to Nick Fitzgerald. Iowa isn’t going to get blown out, but they are going to have problems with the Bulldogs at every turn. Them being without Fant is the deciding factor for me.

(23) Missouri over Oklahoma State

This one makes me nervous. Oklahoma State beat Texas and West Virginia and only lost to Oklahoma by one. They also got blown out by Kansas State and Texas Tech, two teams that didn’t even make a bowl this year. I will take the consistency of Missouri and I think that Drew Lock has a big game in his college swan song.

(24) Georgia Southern over Eastern Michigan

I really wish EMU would have been selected to a bowl last year when they won six games with Brogan Roback at QB. He deserved that experience. Better late than never! However, this is a very tough matchup for Eastern Michigan. Georgia Southern is one of the more efficient option teams in the country, and they can play some defense too. It’s almost impossible to stop an offense is you never face it. Advantage: GSU.

(25) Appalachian State over Middle Tennessee State

Appalachian came frighteningly close to shocking the college football world yet again when they almost beat Penn State in the opener. That wasn’t a fluke. This team really is that good. MTSU is going to put up a fight here, but I think the Mountaineers still pull this out.

(26) LSU over Central Florida

This is one of the worst possible draws for Central Florida. LSU has a very strong defense, and they run the ball. A lot. For a team that just got gouged for over 400 yards on the ground by Memphis, this isn’t something they can overcome. The LSU offensive line is littered with road graders, and there are two or three NFL backs in that backfield. The streak stops here.

(27) Texas A&M over North Carolina State

This is going to be another high scoring affair. This Wolfpack offense can put up points in a hurry. So can Texas A&M. The could be a situation where the team with the ball last wins, but I think A&M comes up with a big play on defense before that. I may end up lowering this though. NC State is likely the second best team in the ACC, and that offense is for real.

(28) South Carolina over Virginia

This felt like a regression year for the Gamecocks, but they looked good in a loss to Clemson and in wins over Missouri and Tennessee. Normally I would pick Virginia here, but the Hoos fell apart down the stretch. The only game they won in the last month was against Liberty, and they allowed 24 points to the Flames in that one. The South Carolina offense could have one of their best games of the year.

(29) Army over Houston

Ed Oliver and D’Eriq King are both out for this one. Houston loses the best defensive player in the country and one of the most quarterbacks in the nation. That isn’t something you overcome easily. Army has had one of their best seasons in recent memory. They have shut down the potent offenses of Buffalo and Oklahoma. Houston without their dynamic QB shouldn’t be much of a problem.

(30) Penn State over Kentucky

The Wildcats play good defense and run the ball, which could be a problem for Penn State. However, Kentucky can’t throw the ball to win, and I think they would have to in a game like this. This may be pretty close, but I also see a scenario where Penn State wins going away.

(31) Boise State over Boston College

You can say whatever you want about Boise, but what always holds true is this: They show up for bowl games. Boston College limped to the finish after their big win over Virginia Tech. I have no reason to think that this team can beat Boise. The defense is good. The offense? They lost to Florida State.

(32) Temple over Duke

I may move this down considering Temple lost their coach to Georgia Tech. The assistant coach will be the interim for the bowl, but this really coluldn’t have come at a worse time for Temple. This offense is really playing well right now. If Foley can keep this team playing well, it’s not going to be all that close. If not, Duke could win this.

(33) TCU over California

I don’t trust this Cal offense at all, especially against the TCU defense. Yes, TCU’s defense isn’t what it used to be, but neither is Stanford’s. Stanford didn’t have an issue at all stopping this offense. TCU wont either.

(34) Georgia Tech over Minnesota

Paul Johnson‘s swan song is all you need to know here. Minnesota was going to have a problem with this option offense anyway. The Gophers are a team on the way up, but they aren’t spoiling this party. Enjoy watching the Wreck Ramblin’ one final time with the triple option. It wont look like this next year.

(35) Ohio State over Washington

Lost in the close calls this season is what a great season that Dwayne Haskins had. This is one of the best matchups that Ohio State could have asked for. The defense struggled at times, but they dominated Michigan because Michigan’s offense isn’t all that great. Washington’s offense is frighteningly similar to the one that Ohio State just punished. This one gets ugly. Sorry Rose Bowl, I smell a blowout.

(36) Wisconsin over Miami

The worst thing that can happen to a team with QB struggles is facing a team with a good defense. Wisconsin has that in spades. Jonathan Taylor is going to wear Miami down, and I just don’t see any way that Miami controls the ball enough to play keep away from Wisconsin.

(37) Stanford over Pittsburgh

This is one of those games that could move down the list pretty quickly. Bryce Love is more than likely not playing in this game, and I don’t blame him. The Stanford offense was bad with him. What are they going to be without him? Cameron Scarlett is a good back with a lot of upside, but Stanford will have to win this game by throwing the ball. If they can get it to Arcega-Whiteside, they’re fine, but that’s a pretty big if.

(38) Hawaii over Louisiana Tech

I find it hard to trust Hawaii right now, but this offense is something special. The Rainbows were very good at home, and they are one of the teams that gets a home bowl game. I don’t find that fair, but it is what it is. This is basically a home game with a Louisiana tech team that is average at best.

(39) Oregon over Michigan State

Michigan State’s offense is the worst in a bowl, and it’s not even close. Oregon’s defense isn’t very good, but it is going to look like it here. Michigan State’s defense is elite, so don’t expect Oregon to put up any monstrous scores. Still, this wont be a close game.

(40) Utah State over North Texas

If you’ve read any of my stuff this year, you know that I’m a fan of North Texas, especially QB Mason Fine. However, this is a really bad draw for the Mean Green. Jordan Love and this Utah State offense are humming, and the defense is pretty good in its own right. The UNT defense really doesn’t have much of a chance of containing Utah State. The Mean Green will hang around for a while, but this still ends up being a double digit win.

(41) BYU over Western Michigan

Zach Wilson turned this offense around. The defense is as good as advertised, and maybe even better. I do like Western Michigan, but their run game is the spine of their offense. BYU’s run defense is very, very good. They are going to rip the spine out of this offense Mortal Kombat style. BYU makes this one ugly.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all of our DFS picks and all of the bowl games picked against the spread. We’re just getting warmed up!

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