Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Tuesday December 18
We’re back in action tonight as the NBA brings us a small four game slate that doesn’t offer a ton of big names but plenty of Fantasy Basketball Top Playsto choose from!
Today marks the start of a new(close to every day) article that will attempt to bring you a better idea of who some of the top Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades are for each position! The goal is to make this a general stats-based look at players who make a lot of sense so they can be used with any site you’re playing on. Especially with a four game slate, think of the term “fade” loosely. Yes, I won’t likely play the fades but you shouldn’t eliminate any player from the pool today. There’s too few options to take a fade to the extreme. Let’s get to work!
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard
Top Play – John Wall, Wizards
If you want to pay up at the point guard position, there’s likely not much of a better time to do it than tonight for Wall. He’s coming off a monster game for fantasy against the Lakers, where he approached 80 DK points. The issues with the heel seem to be fully behind him and now he gets Trae Young “defense”. Young walks into this game with a mind-bendingly awful -13.9 net rating, the fourth worst in the NBA among players that average at least 20 minutes per game.
Usually with teams facing Atlanta, we have to be worried about the blowout factor. That shouldn’t be the case as the Wizards and Hawks are the bottom two teams in points allowed. They’re also in the bottom five in the East so this is the perfect game for fantasy production. On top of all that, the Hawks allow the highest field goal percent on three’s and Wall is taking 5.1 attempts a game.
Honorable Mention – Jamal Murray, Nuggets
Fade – D’Angelo Russell, Nets
This is a perfect example of the term “fade” not being set in stone. Russell actually isn’t in a bad spot considering the Lakers push the pace and we could see the revenge narrative rear its head. Even though Wall just lit up the Lakers, I have generally not loved playing point guards against the Lakers because I believe Lonzo Ball can be a little underrated defensively. The net rating sees him as basically a neutral player but Russell has to be hitting his shots to really pay off his tag. I would much rather just play Spencer Dinwiddie at a cheaper price and with the same relative outcomes. Can Russell have a monster game and will I have a share or two? Yes to both, but I would doubt he becomes a core play for me.
Honorable Mention – Collin Sexton, Cavs
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard
Top Play – Victor Oladipo, Pacers
I think Bradley Beal is going to be a little more popular and he’s a great play in his own right. Oladipo has been a little up and down since he’s come back from a nagging knee injury but this appears to be a spot for him to continue to get right. He really turned it on this past game with 57 DK points and is still priced fairly. The Cavs give up the seventh most DK points to the position and on top of that, Oladipo drives to the hoop about 10 times a game.
With Tristan Thompson still missing, the Cavs lack any realistic sort of rim protection against Dipo. Cleveland also allows the ninth highest field goal percentage from three point land and Dipo is taking a career high 6.5 attempts from that range this season. While the majority uses Beal, Oladipo is a real difference maker for a similar price tag.
Honorable Mention – Bradley Beal, Wizards
Fade – Luka Doncic, Mavericks
I love watching Doncic play when I get the chance(Dallas Mavericks games aren’t exactly popular in the Pittsburgh market), but he is a tough play at his price right now. He’s started to show some ceiling with two games in his last four of 49 and 50 DK points but those have been sandwiched by 28 and 35 point efforts as well. This is the same issue that we ran into with Trae Young for awhile. The consistency just isn’t there and there’s always a good chance that the price kills your lineup.
This game should have a decently high score but the usage with Dallas is spread out relatively thin. No player in the starting lineup has a usage rate over 26 percent or a FPPM above the 1.07 Doncic carries. I might have a little piece of Doncic in a game stack but he is not as safe a play as the price would make it seem.
Honorable Mention – Josh Hart, Lakers
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward
Top Play – LeBron James, Lakers
I mean, did you really expect much else here, especially on a small slate? The good news is it’s not even like you’re just playing him because it’s a short slate and the matchup isn’t good. LeBron faces the Nets, who are just average against the position. Being average against LeBron isn’t going to cut it and he will likely be one of the highest owned players on the night. You can also easily argue that he’s a great fade in GPP for that reason.
If you built your lineup around Wall and another stud and LeBron has a mediocre game(that has happened a little more than we’re accustomed to this year), you would have a really nice edge. The Nets really don’t have rim protection and LeBron drives almost 12 times a game, while passing off the drive just 18.9 percent of the time. Brooklyn fouls the fourth most times of all teams so this could be a game where LeBron lives at the stripe if he chooses.
Honorable Mention – Kent Bazemore, Hawks
Fade – The Wizards
OK, so that’s likely not the most helpful advice ever but hear me out. The Wizards are in a great spot but also might have a plethora of forwards here. Otto Porter won’t be back from his knee injury, but that might not help all that much. Trevor Ariza could be eligible for his first game with his new team. Jeff Green would still be in the mix, but has benefitted from the injuries and the trade.
If we have some clarity for them before lock, the actual spot is excellent. Minutes are the lifeblood of fantasy production, especially when the player isn’t crazy efficient. On the season, Porter is 0.87 FPPM, Green is 0.83 and Ariza(with the Suns) is 0.74. If they all split minutes in some fashion, it will be hard to trust any of them tonight. If it’s just Green, things are a lot better and I would be very interested in playing him.
Honorable Mention – Cedi Osman, Cavs
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward
Top Play – John Collins, Hawks
The second year player for the Hawks missed the opening part of the season but has taken pretty massive strides across the board so far. He’s averaging eight more points, two more rebounds and one more assist while playing about five more minutes a night. The usage is surprisingly high at 24 percent and that’s resulted in 1.13 FPPM this season.
Atlanta isn’t a great rebounding team by any stretch but the Wizards are dead last and have struggled all season on the interior. In a game that features no defense and a high total, Collins could be worth the high price and should make good on his 17.1 rebounding chances per game, 15th in the association. The matchup doesn’t get a whole lot better for Collins.
Honorable Mention – Domantas Sabonis, Pacers
Fade – Mason Plumlee, Nuggets
Sure, Plumlee isn’t going to cost you a lot but he’s been wildly popular the past few slates that included Nuggets and hasn’t really worked out more than once. I totally get why Plumlee has been a chalky option, especially in cash games lately. With Gary Harris, Will Barton and Paul Millsap all out for the Nuggets, there’s a ton of minutes that need filled and Plumlee is a 1.09 FPPM player with those three off the floor. However, Dallas is neck and neck with the Nuggets for the best rebounding percentage in the NBA.
I think Plumlee will have some issues down low when DeAndre Jordan is on the floor and I would much rather play Juancho Hernangomez or Trey Lyles for Denver tonight. Dallas allows the seventh highest percentage from three and Hernangomez and Lyles take at least 3.4 attempts a game. The only way this changes is if Hernangomez winds up being out, as he is on the injury report.
Honorable Mention – Harrison Barnes
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center
Top Play – Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
This is going to be a very fun matchup because both teams are in the bottom six in DK points allowed to the opposing center. Part of that rating for Denver was the twin towers of Jokic and Millsap, but that’s not in the equation tonight. I think there’s a case to be made to play Jordan since Jokic owns a rebounding percentage about six points lower, but Jokic himself can make up for it with points and assists.
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He’s one of the best passers in the NBA and is being relied on for much of the offense right now in Denver. With all the players off the floor that we mentioned earlier, the Joker is a 1.56 FPPM player and simply isn’t priced like it. Jordan might have an advantage in rebounding, but Jokic is still the top center on the slate tonight in my eyes.
Honorable Mention – JaVale McGee could turn out to be a better per dollar play against the Nets
Fade – Jarret Allen, Nets
For once, I don’t think center is that loaded of a position. Typically we have a lot of tough choices but the Hawks/Wizards game has no centers to speak of, there’s only Myles Turner in the Cavs/Pacers game and we talked about the Nuggets/Mavs game. I love McGee for the Lakers and I will be steering clear of Allen tonight. There’s a couple issues with Allen.
First, the Lakers are a better rebounding team and even though Allen sees more rebounding chances than McGee, some of that is minutes related. Secondly, the Lakers allow the third lowest field goal percentage from within five feet of the basket. Allen has taken 225 shots this year and 174 have come from that range. I will be using other players in this spot tonight.
Honorable Mention – None, really
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