Fantasy NBA Best Plays To Win – Wednesday January 16

Good day and greetings from your fantasy NBA best plays to win host and avid DFS player. We’ve got an 8 game slate to discuss so let’s get to it!

Today’s NBA DFS slate is composed of many slower paced teams up until the last 2 games of the night.  One up tempo game is New Orleans at Golden State which does not offer many sleeper values.  These 2 teams are well-known with big stars along with their accompanying large salaries.

We need to roster some of these studs as we can but the trick will be finding those low salary value options to make this viable.

I think the game providing the best quality will be the Utah Jazz at the LA Clippers.  Can we roster Harden, find benefit in the Jazz game, and along with a few others garner enough points to place high?  Let’s take a closer look.

Firstly, ignoring Harden once again is going to be tough even at his crazy salary.  Nobody else on the team can substantially contribute now that Clint Capela is down for the count.  The one huge caveat is the possible return of Eric Gordon.  He would cut into his court time and at a $13000 salary we need Harden to play as long as possible.

Harden is a DFS monster who is becoming even more central to the team as their injuries mount.  The Rocket offense will center around getting Harden the ball through picks and set plays.  Houston is favored by 4 at home against Brooklyn.  What would the line be if Harden was injured?

With Vegas suggesting this game will be close, expect Harden to play a ton of minutes, probably even more than he normally would because the Rockets didn’t play yesterday and they are not playing tomorrow.  And of course they need him on the floor to stay competitive.

As a result I will be using Harden as a mini core play assuming Gordon does not return and finding value around him.  Let’s take a look at who we can roster and how this will play out in the slate coming up.

Fantasy NBA Best Plays To Win – Value Plays

Royce O’Neale ($4500), Utah
He bombed out last game but is still getting plenty of minutes as a starter.  In the 2 prior games where he was playing well, he was on the court nearly 40 minutes each averaging nearly 34 DraftKings points.  Worth a try at this salary level.

Joe Ingles ($5900), Utah
He is a solid and consistent performer good for cash and tournament entries.  He comes with a 40 projected ceiling in this expected up tempo game, recently averaging 33 minutes of floor time.  He can surprise with rebounds and assists as well.

Rudy Gobert ($8500), Utah
Not a sleeper by any means but wow is he on fire.  His prior 4 games show a lights out improvement posting DraftKings points of 37.5, 46, 52 and most recently 58.75.  A dud is coming at some time but I’m guessing not tonight.  He appears to be a great roster in a better than average spot.

Lou Williams ($6100), LA Clippers
Twice this year he has posted over 50 DraftKings points on an average of 28 minutes court time.  He could go off at any time so what better place to try him – an up tempo game at home.

Derrick White ($5800), San Antonio
He is surging out of nowhere and his salary has not yet caught up with his production.  Dallas is 23rd in the league defending point guards so White looks like another solid play to beat salary expectations.

Tristan Thompson ($6200), Cleveland
Now that he has fully recovered from his foot injury that sidelined him for 10 games, Thompson is back to playing between 35-39 minutes a game.  Since he routinely exceeds 1 DraftKings point per minute he should cover his salary fairly easily.

D’Angelo Russell ($7300), Brooklyn
Leads the Nets offense and needs to be mentioned.  Not counting 1 bad game in the last 7, he has averaged over 47 DraftKings points per game, easily covering this salary.

What about the New Orleans vs Golden State game, by far the largest total on the board?

Fantasy NBA Best Plays To Win – Play the Warriors?

This game boasts a 240 total with all the makings of a shootout, and with only a 6 point spread it could remain close forcing starters to see an extended run.

The problem is there are too many big stars, each capable of outshining the other, at big salaries.  If you take the top 2 from each team on DraftKings, Davis and Holiday for the Pelicans, Curry and Durant for the Warriors, and try those 4 in a roster your lineup is already invalid.  The salaries are just too big.

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These are the 2 highest profile teams with the top 4 starters from each squad well-known and impossible to sneak under the radar.

In addition, Golden State is on the 2nd leg of a back to back.  Curry played almost 42 minutes last night, Durant played 30 and Green 31.  This will have some effect tonight especially with Curry.

Milwaukee is on the 2nd leg of a back to back also as we have yet to talk about Giannis.  Since Milwaukee blew out Miami, no Milwaukee starter played more than 26 minutes with Giannis playing 25.  Still, it will count for something especially since Milwaukee is at Memphis.  The Grizzlies are last in the league in pace.

You could make the case for ignoring this wild game altogether, or toggle Anthony Davis with James Harden.  However constructing top player stacks on DraftKings in the Warrior game is impossible.

The last time these 2 teams met was in late October at Golden State.  That seems like a lifetime ago, but the net result was a relatively poor performance from Anthony Davis while Curry and Durant had big games.  The Pelicans are 29th in the league against the small forward position.

As game time approaches, injury news almost always opens up roster spots for cheaper players stepping into larger roles becoming viable salary savers.  Unless something changes, I will be using these sleepers with the players listed earlier centered mostly around Harden.

Good luck to us!