Fantasy Basketball: NBA Draftkings Top Salary Value Plays 1/17/19
By Shaun Evans
Welcome back to another edition of the “Top Salary Value Plays” for NBA Draftkings. We have a 5 game slate tonight before the weekend gets here. Last night we saw James Harden do what he normally does and the Warriors and Pelicans battled it out and the Warriors came alive late to make it an explosive game. James Harden, Steph Curry, Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson and even Kevin Looney came through. Now lets dive in to this 5 game research and find the Top Salary Value Plays. Good luck and cash out!
NBA Draftkings – The Breakdown
So as usually, with any NBA Draftkings slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary. We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like Lebron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or Giannis Antetokounmpo, then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value.
For example, the other night Russell Westbrook was priced at $10,900 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 54.50 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sadly, he did not. This is why we’re switching up the article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates.
Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.
Lets not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 5 game NBA Draftkings Slate. As always though, I will be sticking with Draftkings as I rarely play on Fanduel anymore. Good luck and lets cash out!
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Russell Westbrook vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Salary: $11,800 – Needs to score 59 fantasy points or more to exceed value (76.7 for 6.5x)
We get to go from James Harden to Russell Westbrook once again on back to back nights. Tonight, Russell Westbrook gets to face the struggling Los Angeles Lakers who are allowing point guards to average 21 points, 7 assist, and 5 rebounds per game. Westbrook does have to go up against Lonzo Ball, who has some pretty good defensive skills, but in their one match-up Westbrook did have the upper hand, scoring 16 points, 14 rebounds, and 10 assist which was on January 2nd. Westbrook sscored 60 fantasy points in that first meeting this season, reaching value.
On the season, Russell Wesbrook is averaging 22 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assist per game with a usage rate of 31%. Westbrook is averaging 1.6 fantasy points per minute, projecting him around 56 fantasy points tonight. But that will only happen if he has an off night. He has returned value four times in his last five games, scoring 63.8, 59.8, 83.3, 51, and 65.5 fantasy points. Russell Westbrook is another player that is very hard to fade this season, so lock him in as our top play.
Other Top Tier Options
Kemba Walker vs. Sacramento Kings
Salary: $8,700 – Needs to score 43.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Kemba Walker and the Charlotte Hornets get to face the Sacramento Kings tonight in a fast paced game. Walker is averaging 25 points, 6 assist, and 4 rebounds per game with a usage rate of 31%. He has been on a dominate spree this season, being the only bright spot of this Charlotte team. Walker is averaging 1.2 fantasy points per minute also. He is coming off of a dominate game, scoring 52.5 fantasy points and now gets the Kings who are allowing shooting guards to average 24 points, 8 assist, and 5 rebounds per game. He is coming off of a game versus the Kings on January 12th, scoring just 38.8 fantasy points but don’t expect the same outcome tonight.
Low Tier Option
Fred VanVleet vs. Phoenix Suns
Salary: $5,400 – Needs to score 27 fantasy points or more to exceed value
We have the Toronto Raptors versus the Phoenix Suns tonight and that throws Fred VanVleet in a good spot with a usage rate of 17%. He is averaging 26 minutes per game, recording around 10 points, 4 assist, and 2 rebounds per game. He hasn’t returned value since January 5th though where he scored 43.8 fantasy points. The Phoenix Suns are currently allowing point guards to average 24 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds per game. In their first meeting this season, VanVleet recorded 8 points, 6 assist, and 3 rebounds which is nothing to be overly excited about. But if he can return value at his low salary cost, that is all we need from him.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Jamal Murray vs. Denver Nuggets
Salary: $7,300 – Needs to score 36.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Tonight we have a pretty underwhelming shooting guard depth but we do get Jamal Murray versus the soon to be G-League, Chicago Bulls or the tank team. Murray is currently averaging 18 points, 5 assist and 4 rebounds per game with a usage rate of 25%. He gets to face the Chicago Bulls though who are allowing shooting guards to average 23 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist per game, making this a pretty good game for Jamal Murray to return value. He has actually only returned value in two of his last five games though, scoring 35.8 and 34 fantasy points. Sticking to fantasy points, he is averaging 33.9 per game and is averaging about 1 fantasy point per minute.
Murray has faced this Chicago Bulls team 5 times in his career, averaging 14 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. The two met earlier this season where Murray was almost about to record a double double with 12 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assist. We don’t need this one to get out of hand though because it will hinder Murray’s chances of returning value but if the Bulls can keep themselves in it, Murray will be the star of this underwhelming shooting guard position on the slate.
Other Top Tier Options
Jimmy Butler vs. Indiana Pacers
Salary: $6,800 – Needs to score 34 fantasy points or more to exceed value
In his last match-up versus his former team, we ran with the revenge narrative and hoped that Jimmy Butler would exceed but he didn’t, his current just helped him destroy the Minnesota Timberwolves. But now Butler gets to face the Indiana Pacers who are allowing shooting guards to average 23 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assist per game. Jimmy Buckets is averaging 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assist on the season which gives this game a good chance of him exceeding his normal stat-line and value. Butler has only returned value in two of his last five games, scoring 46.5 and 40.8 fantasy points. Butler only scored 20 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assist in their first meeting but with such a low ceiling tonight, his value could easily be there.
Low Tier Options
Bojan Bogdanovic vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Salary: $5,600 – Needs to score 28 points or more to exceed value
We get both Bodganovic’s once again tonight but lets focus on the same game of Jimmy Butler but on the opposite team. Bojan Bogdanovic is currently averaging 16 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assist per game with a usage rate of 20%. He is averaging just .8 fantasy points a minute off the bench which isn’t terrible, especially when he just needs 28 fantasy points to hit value tonight. He has returned similar value just three times in his past five games, scoring 41.8, 34, and 32.3 fantasy points. When the two faced off a month ago, Bogdanovic recorded 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assist. If he can repeat that performance again tonight, this low value of 28 fantasy points will easily be met and exceeded.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Paul George vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Salary: $9,800 – Needs to score 49 fantasy points or more to exceed value
With another repeat match-up versus the team everyone expected him to go to, Paul George gets to repeat what he already did to the Los Angeles Lakers. George is currently averaging 26 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist with a usage rate of 29%, almost up there with his team Russell Westbrook. He gets to go up against a Lakers team that is allowing small forwards to average 22 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist. Paul George just isn’t as consistent when it comes to returning value like his teammate though.
In George’s last five games, he has only been able to return value in one of them which was two nights ago, scoring 49.5 fantasy points. His salary jumps up tonight by $600 due to it being versus the Lakers, who he recently dropped 37 points on with 4 rebounds and 2 assist. He has faced the Lakers 14 times in his career, averaging 22 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assist. But as long as him and the rest of the Oklahoma City Thunders get on the same page, expect him to roll past his 5x value mark.
Other Top Tier
Ben Simmons vs. Indiana Pacers
Salary: $9,200 – Needs to score 46 fantasy points or more to exceed value
A man who could easily be the top play out of the small forward position, Ben Simmons, gets another good match-up. Simmons is coming off a nice three game streak of exceeding value, scoring 67, 61.5, and 55.3 fantasy points. He is currently averaging 16 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assist on the season with a usage rate of 21%. He is also averaging 44.7 fantasy points per game and 1.35 fantasy points per minute. It’s hard to pass him up when he’s facing a Pacers team that is allowing small forwards to average 18 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assist. The two met earlier this season in December where Ben Simmons almost recorded a double double, scoring 18 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assist. But with his recent play and history versus this Indiana Pacers team, Ben Simmons could be your first option over Paul George.
Low Tier Options
T.J. Warren vs Toronto Raptors
Salary: $6,000 – Needs to score 30 fantasy points or more to exceed value
While I rarely target Phoenix Suns players, T.J. Warren may just have a good night tonight. While Devin Booker is playing way below par, there’s not too many other options on this team besides Deandre Ayton. Warren is currently averaging 18 points and 4 rebounds per game with a usage rate of 23%. He is averaging 30 fantasy points per game and 0.96 fantasy points per minute. He gets to face the Raptors who are allowing small forwards to average 22 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist which would be a good increase to Warren’s current stat-line. But the downside, besides T.J. Warren playing for the Phoenix Suns, he hasn’t returned value since January 6th where he scored 43.8 fantasy points. Many things play in to this match-up for T.J. Warren and if you don’t roster Paul George or Ben Simmons, Warren is the next one up for me.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Kawhi Leonard vs. Phoenix Suns
Salary: $9,600 – Needs to score 48 fantasy points or more to exceed value
With this being such a small slate for NBA Draftkings, it’s hard to find the right value guy but the emotionless man, Kawhi Leonard, has a match-up we can’t miss. He gets to face the Phoenix Suns who are allowing power forwards to average 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. On the season, Leonard is averaging 27 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assist per game with a usage rate of 29%. This season though has been a tough one as the Raptors keep benching Leonard due to his recent injury from last season so we always have to be on the lookout for that.
When it comes to his value, Kawhi Leonard is coming off a huge game, scoring 73.8 fantasy points. He has also returned value in three of his last five games, scoring 57.8, 60, and the big 73,8 fantasy points. He is averaging around 47.5 fantasy points per game and 1.35 fantasy points per minute. Kawhi Leonard has been the go to guy when he’s on the court for the Raptors and if they allow him to play tonight versus the Phoenix Suns, expect him to have another big game.
Other Top Tier Options
Domantas Sabonis vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Salary: $7,100 – Needs to score 35.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
The last time I wrote Domantas Sabonis up, he failed me big time by not even being close to his normal value. But lets try him one more time as he gets to face the Philadelphia 76ers who are allowing power forwards to average 23 points and 11 rebounds per game. Sabonis is currently averaging 15 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assist per game while averaging 25 minutes. He is usually on point when it comes to returning value as he has done so in four of his past five games, scoring 39.3, 38.3, 35.8 and 46.8 fantasy points. When the two teams met previously, Sabonis did record a huge double double with 14 points and 16 rebounds. I know we probably can’t get the same result tonight but with a low salary tag again, it’ll be easier for him to return value tonight.
Low Tier Options
Paul Milsap vs. Chicago Bulls
Salary: $5,800 – Needs to score 29 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Just like big men versus the Brooklyn Nets, we can say the same thing for big men versus the Chicago Bulls. Paul Milsap comes in to tonight’s game averaging 13 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assist plus a low price tag. Now he hasn’t returned value in his two previous games but he did before that with 33.3 fantasy points. This Chicago Bulls team is allowing power forwards to average 20 points and 11 rebounds per game, if we get anything near that from Milsap then it’s a win for us. Milsap is averaging close to 1.1 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 21% and while his minutes do change every game, if the Denver Nuggets get out in front then we can expect Milsap to push his minutes closer to 30 meaning more opportunities for him to exceed his value.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Nikola Jokic vs. Chicago Bulls
Salary: $10,600 – Needs to score 53 fantasy points or more to exceed value (68.9 for 6.5x)
We just got done talking about big men versus Chicago and it makes the perfect sense to play Nikola Jokic. The Bulls are allowing centers to average 25 points and 17 rebounds per game. As a center, Nikola Jokic is almost pushing a triple double with 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assist per game with a usage rate of 27% which is impressive for big men in the NBA. When the two met earlier this season, Jokic recorded 22 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assist which makes this very hard to pass up tonight.
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When it comes to value, Jokic is usually close to it as he has returned value three times in his past five games, scoring 63.3, 58.5, and 66.5 fantasy points in those games. He is currently averaging 48 fantasy points per game and averaging 1.5 fantasy points a minute. There should be close to no doubt for anyone to roster Jokic tonight and even pairing him with Russell Westbrook and the right value.
Other Top Tier Options
Steven Adams vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Salary: $7,200 – Needs to score 36 fantasy points or more to exceed value
It’s hard to pass up Joel Embiid as a top value play tonight but Steven Adams gets to face the Los Angeles Lakers which makes this an easy call. Adams is currently averaging 15 points and 10 rebounds per game with a usage rate of 17%. He doesn’t get relied on much anymore but when the opportunities present themselves, Adams steps up. This Lakers team is allowing centers to average 25 points and 18 rebounds per game. Easy call for Adams though, right? Steven Adams is pushing out a fantasy point per every minute that he’s on the floor also. He has returned value three times in his past five games, scoring 39.5, 36.3, and 32.3 fantasy points. If this game is just like their most recent game then Steven Adams should easily exceed the value as he recorded 14 points and 15 rebounds in that game.
Low Tier Options
Willie Cauley-Stein vs. Charlotte Hornets
Salary: $6,500 – Needs to score 32.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Now usually I choose centers that face Willie Cauleuy-Stein due to him not being that aggressive for a big man but he gets to face the Charlotte Hornets, making this a nice, low cost salary play. Cauley-Stein is averaging 13 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assist per game with a usage rate of 20%. He is pumping out 1.1 fantasy points per minute while averaging 32 fantasy points per game. But this Hornets team is allowing centers to average 24 points and 15 rebounds per game which is a major upside for Willie Cauley-Stein. The two teams faced off this past Saturday where Cauley-Stein put up a double double with 12 points and 12 rebounds with 4 assist. All we need is a repeat performance of that and we easily get our value plus more back from the Sacramento Kings center.
Next. DraftKings NBA picks January 17. dark
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