Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks of the Day: Friday, January 25th

Disclaimer: I hate betting favorites and love finding value in the underdogs for my NBA and NCAA basketball picks.

Yesterday was a REAL rough day for underdogs across the board, with the few NCAA Basketball underdog victories coming out of the DEEP mid-major conference teams.

This series is dedicated to finding those diamond in the rough underdog money lines, so tough nights are bound to happen. That said, let’s shake it off and get right back at it with a look at tonight’s short (but promising) slate of 6 games.

Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks

#5 Michigan Wolverines vs Indiana Hoosiers – 6:30pm ET

Michigan and Indiana have met up once before on the season, with Michigan winning at home and sending the Hoosiers into a subsequent tail spin.

Michigan is coming off a surprising home scare to Minnesota. John Beilein has his Wolverines clicking on the defensive end as the boast unquestionably a top 5 defense in the NCAA, however, the game against Minnesota (also their loss to Wisconsin in their previous game) highlighted the Achilles heel of this Michigan squad.

Lacking a true #1 scoring option, the Wolverines struggle to get baskets when the game slows down and gets ugly. They do share the ball well and on most nights are able to make do with their current offensive situation, but the fact remains that the blueprint to stop the Wolverines is out.

Indiana on the other hand started off the season as one of the best teams in the nation. After dropping a road contest to the Wolverines, the Hoosiers have more or less imploded. Losers of 5 straight in conference play, the Hoosiers desperately need a win (and subsequent conference run) to keep their tournament hopes alive.

The Hoosiers had been playing at an elite level on the defensive end prior to conference play and had faced a daunting non-conference schedule. At their best, Indiana is a dangerous turnover producing machine that stifles opposing offenses from the field. The pack-line defense is extremely effective at the college level if run properly (look at Virginia), so if that version of Indiana shows up tonight, Michigan is going to be in for a dog fight.

Despite the Hoosier’s recent struggles, their play to start the season shows that they are a considerably better team than the 5 game slide would suggest. Moreover, 4 of those 5 losses came on the road and we all know how brutal the road has been across the board this season. Indiana is back home and looking to get back on track with a clearer game plan on how to beat the Wolverines. Look for a low-scoring defensive struggle that sees the Hoosier’s steal the game away late.

Underdog NCAA Basketball Pick: Indiana Hoosiers (+175)

#14 Buffalo Bulls vs Kent State Golden Flashes – 6:30pm ET

Buffalo shot out of the gates on fire this season before dropping recent games to Marquette and Northern Illinois. Led by one of the best offenses in the nation, the Bulls simply go out and try to outscore you on any given night. Led by senior guard C.J. Massinburg, the Bulls average over 80 points per game and play at a breakneck pace.

Despite their stellar record, the Bulls have posted those gaudy offensive stats against fairly inferior basketball teams. When presented with a solid defense, the Bulls have shown they can go cold on offense and are unable to rely on their defense to bail them out. Most nights though, their offensive unit is simply better than the defenses that the MAC has to offer.

Kent State is a team that simply finds a way to win. They don’t boast a stellar offense or elite defense, but they are a well-rounded team that battles from wire to wire. Although that doesn’t necessarily show up in their stats, the Golden Flashes are a tough match-up for any team in the MAC.

While by no means an elite offense, Kent State can still knock down the 3 at a respectable clip, especially senior guard Jaylin Walker. Walker is the offense for Kent State and is averaging an absurd 23.4 points per game on .447% shooting from the field to go with .459% from 3.

Walker should get plenty of good looks against the Bulls and has the ability to single-handedly keep Kent State around should the Bulls decide to go nuclear on the offensive end.

Kent State gets this match-up at home and despite all the hype surrounding Buffalo, the Golden Flashes are an extremely good team in their own right. Look for the Kent State defense to hold the Bulls offense in check while Walker makes big shot after big shot to keep his team afloat before icing the game late.

Underdog NCAA Basketball Pick: Kent State Golden Flashes (+180)

Brown Bears vs Yale Bulldogs – 7:00pm ET

Brown heads to New Haven to face the Yale Bulldogs in an Ivy League showdown. Brown and Yale last me in their previous match-up, with Yale sneaking away with a late 3 point road win over the Bears.

Despite dropping their last game at home to this same Yale team, Brown showed that they are without a doubt a worthy adversary for the pride of the Ivy League. Brown relies on a strong defense to create opportunities for them on the offensive end as they limit opponents to just 66 points per game.

They kept a potent Yale offense in check to the tune of just 70 points and lost by only 3 points despite a horrendous shooting performance from leading scorer Desmond Cambridge. If Cambridge returns to form after an off night, Brown is going to be even that much tougher of an out for the Bulldogs.

Yale on the other hand is unquestionably the cream of the crop in the Ivy League at the time of this writing. Led by a fast paced and efficient offense, the Bulldogs cruised through non-conference play before hitting a hiccup against Brown in their last outing.

Yale has shown that when faced with quality competition, they do tend to struggle and shut down on the offensive end. In their losses to Vermont and Duke (as well as their last game against Brown), the Bulldogs were held to considerably lower point totals than what they normally average and looked completely lost at times while trying to create offense.

Brown is coming into this match-up angry and looking to avenge their hard-fought and easily winnable loss to Yale. Don’t expect Cambridge to have another off night and look for a similarly solid defensive effort from the Bears in this contest.

The home crowd of an Ivy League program doesn’t scare me off too much, so i’ll take the more motivated team that played their last match-up with Yale down to the wire. Brown wins this one in another nail biter between Ivy League elites.

Underdog NCAA Basketball Pick: Brown Bears (+270)

That’s all for tonight’s underdog NCAA Basketball picks. Check back in to Fantasy CPR tomorrow for more underdog picks because nobody likes betting the favorite!