EPL DFS Breakdown – Tuesday 1/29/19

Mid-week EPL DFS is back, baby!  And so am I…but just barely.  Anyone reading this can thank the awful weather in Milwaukee and Marquette University for canceling classes on Monday giving me enough time to write this.  Let’s jump right into my EPL DFS Breakdown so I can go enjoy my snow day.

On Tuesday, the English Premier League is giving us a full six-game EPL DFS slate!  There are three big favorites on the slate: Arsenal and both teams from Manchester.  The other three games should all be competitive with spreads under 1.0.

Something of note is the really high goal total over/under in the Cardiff @ Arsenal game which is set at 3.5.  The over/under for both Manchester games is 3.0.  Getting as much exposure to them is going to be key, especially in cash games.

There is some injury news on the slate, but the majority of it isn’t going to influence the slate from a fantasy perspective anyways.  If you want more information on team news and injuries you can get my Twitter page (@vdray5).

EPL DFS Target Forwards

Marcus Rashford (Burnley @ Manchester United, $13,000) – Rashford has a great matchup this week against Burnley who are giving up an average of 1.8 goals per game on the road.  Not to mention the fact that Rashford is red hot.  He has scored in the last four games he played in, and in six of his last eight.  His price has risen drastically in that span, but you can ride him until he’s not hot at this price.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Cardiff @ Arsenal, $12,000) – Speaking of forwards with good matchups, Cardiff have given up second most goals in the league so far this season.  Aubameyang and his Arsenal mates should be able to take advantage of a weak Cardiff defense on Tuesday.  He hasn’t been on the scoresheet in his last two EPL games, but he does have four goals in his last six EPL games, so he’s coming in with decent form.  Aubameyang trails Mo Salah by two goals for best in the EPL this year, and this is a perfect matchup for him to add to his total.  This matchup alone makes Alexandre Lacazette ($10,500) completely viable as well.

Aleksandar Mitrovic (Brighton @ Fulham, $11,000) – Brighton concede many more goals in away games this season (1.7 avg).  This bodes well for Mitrovic who scores the majority (6 of his 8) goals on home turf.  Mitrovic is also one of the best forwards at gaining peripheral stats.  He’s top five in among forwards in clearances, blocked shots, and shots on goal.  He’s a top pivot off the other two forward targets on Tuesday.

Value Forwards

Diogo Jota (West Ham United @ Wolverhampton, $8,500) – After an incredible hat-trick against Leicester City last game, Jota gets a suspect WHU defense at home.  Jota has five goals in his last five EPL games, so his form has never been better this season.  The lack of good value forwards on this slate is concerning, so hopefully Jota is still on the high of a hat-trick and can hit value this week.

EPL DFS Target Midfielders

Paul Pogba (Burnley @ Manchester United, $11,000) – I already wrote about the plus matchup for United attackers against Burnley, so I won’t be repetitive.  Pogba has five goals in his last five EPL games, to go along with two assists and 15 shots on goal.  He’s established a nice floor in that five-game stretch and a high ceiling as well.  Ownership will be high, but he’s an elite play on Tuesday.  If you’re looking to fully stack United, Jesse Lingard ($8,000) is coming off a goal last Friday in the FA Cup and would be a viable GPP play for that price.

Kevin de Bruyne (Manchester City @ Newcastle, $9,500) – Yes, KDB has been hurt almost all season and yes, he hasn’t scored since December.  But, de Bruyne finally played a full 90 minutes on 1/20, so he should almost have his feet all the way under him now.  Having a player of this caliber available for this cheap is something that needs to be taken advantage of.  Newcastle is two points above the relegation zone, and City know they can’t mess around in this game since they’re still trying to chase down Liverpool for the title.  City should run all over Newcastle in this one, and I think it’s the game KDB announces he’s fully back with a goal.  If you’re not feeling that risky, you can get Leroy Sane ($10,000) who has two goals in three games for $500 more.

Value Midfielders

Pascal Gross (Brighton @ Fulham, $7,500) – Gross spend a lot of the fall out injured and struggled upon his return to the field.  However, he is averaging 20 FDP in his last three EPL games including a goal and an assist.  He gets a Fulham team that is dead last in goals allowed this season with 51 in 23 games.  The tough part about this is that Brighton struggles to score, especially on the road.  Something has to give.  The lack of mid-range midfielders on this slate is disappointing, but Gross is one of the best plays in this range.

Lucas Torreira (Cardiff @ Arsenal, $6,500) – This play is simple.  Torreira has a plus matchup at home against a poor Cardiff team that is headed for relegation.  He’s also cheaper than he has been in past weeks for whatever reason.  Torreira’s upside is somewhat limited, but he does have two goals, two assist, and 11 chances created to his name this season.  Ownership won’t be high, making him a good GPP dart in a great matchup.  Ainsley Maitland-Niles ($6,500) fits the bill as well.

Also like: Helder Costa ($6,000), Ryan Babel ($6,000)

EPL DFS Target Defenders

Lucas Digne (Everton @ Huddersfield, $7,000) – Digne has officially become one of the best fantasy defenders this season.  You can check his game log for evidence.  This is a solid matchup for Digne.  He should have freedom to join Everton’s attack, but he will also need to do some defending which will be good for his peripherals.  Finding enough value at other positions to pay up for Digne on Tuesday could prove to be a tough task, but if you have the money for a top defender, he’s the one.

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Ashley Young (Burnley @ Manchester United, $6,000) – Young had been in a slump since mid-December until his 18.5 FDP game on 1/19, and his price is down because of it.  This is a great matchup for Young.  United will control possession, allowing Young to join the attack and create chances with his crosses.  Burnley are in the bottom five at allowing crosses this season.  While crosses don’t count for points on FanDuel, they can lead to chances created and assists.  Young is a nice GPP play with ownership that will likely be low.  Luke Shaw ($5,500) also has a reasonable price for his creative ability in a good matchup.

Ben Mee (Burnley @ Manchester United, $5,500) – I feel like Mee needs to be included here with this price drop.  This isn’t an ideal matchup for Mee, but he’s had a stable fantasy floor all season (0 games in single digits).  Mee is fifth in the EPL in clearances and second in blocked shots.  Burnley is going to need all of the defending they can get out of Mee on Tuesday with a tough game against United.

Value Defenders

Danilo (Manchester City @ Newcastle, $5,000) – Danilo has been playing really well for City in their last two games with 28.8 FDP on average.  This is another good matchup for Danilo against a weak Newcastle side.  A full Manchester City stack should include him, especially given an affordable price tag.

Sead Kolasinac (Cardiff @ Arsenal, $5,000) – I wrote up Kolasinac last game against Chelsea and it worked.  He had 22.7 FDP including two chances created and five tackles.  This is another juicy matchup for the wing back who’s still priced pretty cheap.  Arsenal will dominate this game allowing Kolasinac to work on the flanks and provide as much boost to Arsenal’s attack as he can.  He’s a top value defender regardless of format.

Florian Lejeune (Manchester City @ Newcastle, $4,500) – Finally healthy, Lejeune has played very well from a fantasy perspective.  In two games, he’s averaging 17.4 FDP which is nearly 4x value at his current price.  He’s a perfect player to roster if you need salary relief, which is something I will continue doing until FanDuel raises his price.

EPL DFS Goalkeepers

Bernd Leno (Cardiff @ Arsenal, $5,500) – Leno gets a price bump this week, but he’s still cheap for his matchup.  Cardiff City have only scored six goals in 11 away games, and Arsenal have only given up six goals at home in 11 games.  A win and clean sheet look probable for Leno, which would already put him at 3x value without points from saves.

David de Gea (Burnley @ Manchester United, $6,500) – This is another simple “home team doesn’t give up many goals and away team doesn’t score many goals” narrative.  If Manchester United play like they have been, DDG will get a win and clean sheet bonus.  He’s expensive, though, which might lead some to play Ederson ($6,000) or Leno for cheaper.

Thanks for reading my EPL DFS Breakdown and good luck!