FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Super Saturday
Welcome back to a special Super Bowl Eve edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. I’m ready, as always, to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.
We have a massive 11-game slate on tap tonight. With tomorrow being Super Bowl Sunday, the NBA has loaded up today’s schedule and we have a much larger than usual Saturday night slate of NBA DFS action as a result.
"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."
My goal when I revamped the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs. When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.
This is where I remind you that in order to win in NBA DFS you have to be flexible with your roster construction and sometimes take things down to the wire before lock with late-breaking injury information. At the same time, I always warn against totally scrapping your original first look build, as sometimes the plays that you were on the night before or that morning end up still being the best plays on the slate.
As always, let’s take a quick look at our injury situation and Vegas data to get us moving in the right direction.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: First Look
INJURY REPORT
OUT: Anthony Davis, Jamal Murray, Lonzo Ball, Elfrid Payton, Jeff Teague, Trey Burke, Clint Capela, Tyus Jones, De’Anthony Melton, Tim Hardaway Jr., Robert Covington, TJ Warren, Nikola Mirotic, Julius Randle, J.J. Redick, Thabo Sefolosha, Raul Neto, Dante Exum, Chandler Hutchinson, Jabari Parker, Etwaun Moore, Wilson Chandler, Wendell Carter Jr., Markieff Morris, Tristan Thompson, Cody Zeller
DOUBTFUL: NONE
QUESTIONABLE: Derrick Rose, Corey Joseph, Klay Thompson. Wayne Selden, Allen Crabbe, Otto Porter, Gary Harris, Tyreke Evans, Jonathan Simmons, Dragan Bender
PROBABLE: Eric Bledsoe, Luka Doncic, Zach LaVine, Josh Hart, Kyle Kuzma, DeAndre Ayton
WOW! That’s a lot of injured dudes! The good news is that the list of guys out is a lot longer than those who are questionable and there’s really only a couple of guys in there who would have major impacts on their teams’ rotations if they missed (Rose, Thompson, Porter, and Harris)
Pay attention to the probable players to see if they get ruled in or downgraded during the day. I’m particularly interested in DeAndre Ayton making his possible return to the lineup tonight against Atlanta.
VEGAS INFO
Atlanta, Utah, Denver, Houston, and Miami all played last night, but no teams that are in action tonight play on tomorrow’s 3-game afternoon slate.
There are FOUR games tonight with totals over 230! Spurs-Pelicans is at 232, the Kings-Sixers and Hawks-Suns are both at 235, and the Warriors-Lakers is at 236.
Those two 235 totals are only three-point spreads while the other two games are double-digit spreads.
There are two other really tight spreads in Brooklyn @ Orlando (-2) and Denver (-1) @ Minnesota.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core
Welcome to the cash game core plays section of the Breakdown! I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.
Harrison Barnes (5500)
Barnes had a big night on Thursday night after three of his teammates were traded away earlier in the day and the Mavericks rookie star Luka Doncic sat out. Doncic should return tonight, but none of the players acquired from the Knicks will play, meaning Barnes should be counted to log heavy minutes and put up a bunch of shots. His price is just too cheap for his scoring ability in a matchup against a bad defensive team like the Cavs.
Nikola Vucevic (10000)
If you haven’t noticed by now after playing 3 months of NBA DFS, we like to target centers against the Nets. Vuc isn’t just any center, he’s an elite fantasy producer and has performed well already twice in this spot against the Nets, averaging over 53 FanDuel points in those contests. This game is projected to be close and isn’t likely to feature much defense, especially on the interior.
Derrick White (6100)
White has really come on strong lately for the Spurs, scoring 34 and 46 FD points in his last two games in only 29 and 24 minutes, respectively. The lowest total in his last 5 games has been 29 FD points which is nearly 5x at this price. I want some exposure to the Spurs tonight against the Pelicans in a pace up spot and I love White and the other cheap Spurs guards as a way to do so.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Top GPP Plays
For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.
Terrance Ross (5300)
Ross is hot right now and is the kind of streaky shooter that I want to play while he’s feeling it. He’s coming off a game where he dropped 30 actual points and he’d scored 15-16 actual points in five of his previous six games before that. Ross has the green light to shoot and I love using him at this price as part of a Brooklyn-Orlando game stack.
LeBron James (10900)
The King is back! LeBron surprised everyone and came back on Thursday night against the Clippers, leading his Lakers to an overtime win over the Clippers and playing 40 minutes. The Lakers are big underdogs tonight, but James will definitely be doing everything he can to keep his team in this game and we know what he’s capable of against the Warriors. He probably won’t be under 11k this season, so I’d jump on him here tonight.
Ben Simmons (9700)
This was a close call for me as I also really like Steph Curry (9500) against the Lakers. But I’m going with Simmons in a game that should be played fast and has a better chance of staying close than the Warriors-Lakers game. Simmons played really well in the Sixers big win against the Warriors on Thursday night and he should be able to dominate the smaller Kings guards tonight and grab a ton of boards. I see a 20 point triple-double coming and another 50+ outing for him in this spot.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays
For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.
Kenrich Williams (4600)
Williams has made quite a splash since joining the Pelicans rotation, racking up 30 and 39 FD points in his first two games with extended playing time. For those who might be like, “who the heck is this guy,” he’s an athletic wing player who played his college ball at TCU. He shot nearly 40% from three-point range in his last year there and averaged 13-9-4. He can do a little of everything and has been impressive in limited action thus far.
Tim Frazier (4100)
While Frank Jackson has been starting for the Pelicans with Elf Payton out, it’s been Frazier who’s been doing more with his minutes and finishing games. The diminutive point guard is a former All Big-Ten standout and four-year starter at Penn State and a freakish athlete. He’s racked up 14 points, 12 rebounds, and 18 assists over his last two games and is a stat stuffer.
Darius Miller (5000)
Miller finally saw his price get adjusted, but he’s still a potential value here tonight considering that he’s playing 40 and 37 minutes in the last two Pelicans games with all of their injuries. He’s topped 30 FD points in three of his last four games and his scoring has been needed by New Orleans on offense.
Jalen Brunson (3600)
Brunson was a bit of a letdown on Thursday night as chalk, scoring only 18 FD points in 32 minutes and I’m hoping that people move off him tonight as a result. He has a significantly better matchup against the Cavs tonight and with only Devin Harris (also playable at 3500) for competition, Brunson should have ample opportunity to pay off this price tag.
Dwight Powell (3700)
With DeAndre Jordan gone, it looks like the Mavs will be rotating Powell, Maxi Kleber, and Salah Mejri inside. Powell stands out from that group for me because of his ability to score the basketball and rack up ancillary stats quickly, making him a better bet to pay off his salary than the others even if he only gets 20-25 minutes.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night
Philadelphia (-3) @ Sacramento (235 total)
This game has a lot of appeal to me as a “late night hammer” on this slate. Both of these teams play fast and love to push the tempo. Games that play fast have more shot attempts, missed shots which become rebound opportunities and of course turnovers, which can become steals for the other team.
The Sixers are fresh off a big win over the Warriors and I could see them let the Kings hang around here tonight in somewhat of a letdown spot. Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid (11600) are my top two candidates to stack in this game and they usually correlate pretty well. Jimmy Butler (8600) feels overpriced for his lack of usage in this offense and relies a lot on steals/blocks for his fantasy points these days.
With J.J. Redick already ruled out, Landry Shamet (3600) and T.J. McConnell (4300) become interesting cheap plays here in this spot.
For the Kings, I’m steering clear of the slumping De’Aaron Fox (7400) and focusing instead on Buddy Hield (6500), Bogdan Bogdanovic (6600), and the emerging rookie Marvin Bagley III (6300) as my primary options. I wouldn’t advise using Bogdan and Buddy in the same lineup, but both are playing really well right now and are fairly priced for their upside.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night (Bonus Stack)
Brooklyn (+2) @ Orlando (218 total)
This game doesn’t jump off the page with the Vegas total, but I really do think it stays close and we have some really good individual matchups we can target here.
For Brooklyn, most of their pieces on offense are very affordable with the exception of D’Angelo Russell (8900), who’s starting to get priced up to the point where I’m not that likely to play him considering he has the tendency to bust fairly often when I actually do play him.
But Shabazz Napier (5900) is firmly in play for me here. He’s playing minutes in the high 20’s and continuing to make value on a nightly basis. He sports a 30% usage rate over his last 4 games and the Orlando defense is not one that anyone should fear. He stacks nicely with a couple other guys on the second unit like DeMarre Carroll (4700) and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (4500). The only starter I really have interest in is Jarrett Allen (5800) because of his massive block potential and reasonable price, but his upside still feels somewhat capped by the fact he hasn’t cracked 30 minutes in his last 8 games.
The Orlando duo of Vucevic and Ross I’ve already mentioned, but D.J. Augustin (4400) deserves some consideration at that price. Jonathan Isaac (5500) is coming off a solid 13-13 game against the Pacers and went for 35 FD points against Brooklyn in their last game. And lastly, Aaron Gordon feels too cheap still at 7200. He should be lower owned based on the dud he put up on Thursday night. I never play Gordon and Vucevic together, so use Gordon as a pivot off Vuc’s ownership and maybe as a way to get exposure to another center you like.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview
If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.
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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.
Today’s sample lineup is a Cash lineup. I think building around James and Vucevic as the spend ups and then using a lot of safe mid-tier options is a solid strategy tonight. There is going to be a ton of value on this slate so for GPPs I do think taking more risks on less-balanced lineups makes a lot of sense, too.
Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks.
PG: Derrick White (6100)
PG: Eric Bledsoe (7300)
SG: Terrence Ross (5300)
SG: Bojan Bogdanovic (6600)
SF: LeBron James (10900)
SF: Harrison Barnes (5500)
PF: Kenrich Williams (4600)
PF: Dwight Powell (3700)
C: Nikola Vucevic (10000)
I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter. And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!
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