DraftKings Main NBA Picks March 3: Vote KAT in DC

We have a seven game Sunday but for DraftKings NBA, it is broken into an early and a main slate. The main slate has more high priced players, so there will be some more separation here than the afternoon slate. Who should we build around?

Last night the money line was fairly low for this year at 278.5 DraftKings points. Five of my ten lineups places in the 20 max and I managed to come out a little ahead, but to much Westbrook and Tyler Johnson and no shares of LeBron meant my best lineup was only 316.25.

DaRealistGuru took this one down with 386.75 DraftKings points, which was 10.75 ahead of second place. That’s a lot of separation. He built with Giannis and Donovan Mitchell and got big value out of Middleton, Derrick Favors, BroLo, Joe Ingles, and Darren Collison. He even survived the busted value of Korver.

I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.

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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook was a dud last night, but he blasted Memphis for 66.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting. I’m hoping the dud last night keeps ownership low on Westbrook tonight. I expect him to ravage Memphis with George still out.

Honorable Mention:

Mike Conley‘s production has been all over the place. He too had a dud last night against Dallas in a foul plagued effort. Still, I don’t see a good reason to drop to Conley, and this slate feels like we need at least one star. Conley will be mostly forgotten here.

Kyle Lowry had a pedestrian outing against Detroit in the first meeting, but I would expect a better effort here. Lowry put up big numbers against Portland on Friday, and could be in line for something like that given Detroit’s point guard defense. I trust Lowry a lot more than Conley.

Dark Horses:

Jeff Teague had a solid return against Indiana, and they are a good defensive team. Washington is not. This is a big spot for Teague here. I like him a lot at this price because he can still be used as a value play.

I don’t know that I trust Collin Sexton or Jordan Clarkson enough to use against the Magic. Tomas Satoransky is not only much safer, but he arguably has more upside than those two as well. When you consider the opponent, this is especially true. Satoransky is too cheap for what he has been doing with Wall out.

Ish Smith continues to outperform Reggie Jackson, and he has taken about half of the minutes from him again. Ish is way to cheap at this price.

My pick: Teague(PG), Smith(UTIL)

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Bradley Beal even went nuts on the Celtics on Friday. He has been an absolute stud in the absence of Wall, and I expect some big numbers here against Minnesota. Beal may be my favorite play in the entire slate, especially when you consider that he is $2,400 less than Westbrook.

Honorable Mention:

Evan Fournier continues to put up solid numbers. There is nothing wrong with that for GPP purposes on a small slate. He put up 31.75 DraftKings points on Cleveland the first time around. That seems to be right in line with what Fournier did for the entire month of February.

Derrick Rose had a solid game against Indiana, but he did almost nothing besides score, which really limits him for DFS purposes. There is no reason to think that trend will continue though, especially against Washington. Rose probably has more upside than Fournier, but Fournier is the safer pick.

Dennis Schroder has averaged 28.8 DraftKings points per game with Paul George out. That’s nothing to write home about, but it’s still about 5.8x value.

Dark Horses:

I do like Terrence Ross again, but he is such a tease. He shows just enough to get us excited, then he drops a single digit game. Avery Bradley has 105 DraftKings points in the last three games. He is by far the best value play on this slate, and it’s not even close.

It’s hard to even look at another value play with as great as Bradley has been. However, Luke Kennard is capable of putting up some big numbers as well. He has topped 30 DraftKings points in three of the last four games. Kennard and Bradley could be a lethal combination here, though I would temper my expectations against the Raptors.

My pick: Beal(SG), Bradley(G), Kennard(F)

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Detroit has allowed the fewest fantasy points to small forwards this season. In the first meeting, they held Kawhi Leonard to 46.25 DraftKings points, which is still 5x value. I think a lot of people are going to fade Kawhi here, but I could still see him hitting value. Leonard isn’t an automatic fade for me.

Honorable Mention:

Trevor Ariza was a non-factor against Boston, but this is a different story against Minnesota. The minutes are still there for Ariza. As long as he is seeing 35 minutes a game for less than $6,000, he will find his way into my lineups when the matchup is right. It certainly seems to be tonight.

Jonathan Isaac remains too cheap at just $5,500. Forget the bad game against the Warriors. That’s understandable. Isaac should be good for his normal 30 against Cleveland tonight. I would also consider running Cedi Osman back against him, but probably only if stacking this game.

Dark Horses:

Jabari Parker put up 47.5 DraftKings points agianst Minnesota earlier this year, but as was the problem in Chicago, Parker has found himself in a reserve role with Washington as well. The minutes are more consistent with Washington, but his upside is still very limited in half a game or less.

My pick: Isaac(SF)

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Blake Griffin put up a massive 60 DraftKings points on Toronto the first time around. I don’t know that I would expect that again, especially with the way Toronto has been playing. This feels like a spot to fade Griffin, though I will have a little exposure if I play several lineups.

Honorable Mention:

Pascal Siakam had a solid 32.5 DraftKings points against Detroit the first time. The only problem is that is well below value with Siakam’s price this high. Detroit’s massive front could give Toronto issues. I definitely don’t mind moving down here. This doesn’t feel like a risk worth taking.

Aaron Gordon racked up 39.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Cleveland, and they really don’t have anyone stopping him from doing it again with Kevin Love back on the shelf. I’m always apprehensive about playing Gordon, but this looks like one slate where I can’t pass him up.

Dark Horses:

The whole middle tier at power forward is full of pitfalls. This should be a great spot for Jerami Grant or Markieff Morris, but it wasn’t last night either. I have my doubts that it will be here against Memphis. The Memphis front it a bit beaten up, so Grant is a good GPP dart. Other than that, I want no part of any of this.

Jeff Green continues to put up solid numbers off the bench for Washington. There are a lot of forwards that get time in Washington, but Green has managed to stay pretty consistent through everything. I view him more as a cash game play since he doesn’t play enough to have the upside of others.

I like Dario Saric, but now the time is split down the middle between him and Taj Gibson. Neither of their fantasy value can survive that split. I would rather throw a dart with Marquese Chriss, but Nance and Zizic have cut into his time as well. Zizic is out for this game though, so it should mean more minutes for Chriss.

My pick: Gordon(PF)

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

Karl-Anthony Towns has three straight games of more than 70 DraftKings points. If you don’t play him against this weak Washington front, maybe DFS isn’t for you. This is the definition of a smash spot.

Vucevic and Drummond both look like solid plays, but look a little closer. Neither has topped 35 DraftKings points in any of the games against tonight’s opponents. I really don’t see anyone getting ample return in either of these spots tonight.