Welcome to the Sunday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Saturday’s Picks and Pivots was titled “The Great Unknown” as for a small(er) slate we had a ton of big name stars with injuries that completely altered the slate. One of the biggest names on the slate was Giannis Antetokounmpo who went from questionable to probable to leading the slate with 79 fantasy points at less than 5% ownership in GPP’s. Overall scores were down last night with winning GPP lineups netting just 322 fantasy points with the cash lines sitting in the 290 range.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Sunday Slate Breakdown:
Sunday’s NBA DFS action is spread out across the day with Portland and Charlotte kicking it off at 1PM EST, however FantasyDraft has opted to leave that game off and start the 7 game slate at 3:30PM EST where the final game of the night (OKC/Memphis) starts at 7PM EST.
My biggest takeaway at first glance – of the 14 teams in action on Sunday’s slate, 11 of them see a projected pace decrease. Yuck.
With lock being at 3:30PM EST on FantasyDraft, that also likely means we only have confirmed lineups for the first three games, one of those is a double-digit spread involving the New York Knicks and the other is a rematch of the 4 overtime DFS goldmine that was the Hawks and Bulls.
Any time we get a spread out slate like this, the early games tend to be over-owned as people will opt for the safety of the “known” and I think the recency bias and game log watching will push everyone towards the Hawks and Bulls.
Trae Young is coming off a monster 87 fantasy point outing against the Bulls in that 4 OT slugfest, but in the two prior meetings, he managed only 33 and 28 fantasy points. The Hawks will be short-handed once again with Taurean Prince, John Collins and Omari Spellman all out which means the Hawks will be forced to run out Trae Young for all the minutes he can handle once again.
For Hawks at Bulls Sunday:
— Chris Vivlamore (@CVivlamoreAJC) March 2, 2019
Vince Carter (right knee contusion), Kevin Huerter (back) and Alex Len (left knee contusion) are probable.
John Collins (flu-like symptoms) is doubtful. Miles Plumlee (left knee), Taurean Prince (personal) and
Omari Spellman (left ankle) are out.
Rather than chase the Trae Young’s of the world on this slate, the best route may be instead to go after the value in this game with all the fringe players on the Hawks sidelined. As crazy as it sounds, Vince Carter and DeAndre Bembry who are priced at $6.2K and $6.3K per player and played 37 and 45 minutes in the 4 OT game last time are now going to be asked to play more minutes with Spellman and Prince out – maybe we just opt to take the punts here, especially on FantasyDraft where we can then use the savings to pay up for the studs. The other spot to look for value here may be in Orlando as the Magic could be without starting PG D.J. Augustin against the Cavaliers which would likely result in a start for Jerian Grant at $6.4K.
NBA DFS – Building the Core:
Assuming Paul George is out once again tonight for OKC, this slate for me comes down to how do I jam in both Russell Westbrook ($20.7K) and James Harden ($20.3K)?
Part of why I led with the punt value in Atlanta and Orlando is that we are going to need at least two near minimums plays if we want to prioritize these two high ceiling studs. I am going to be interested to see how the masses treat Westbrook tonight as he has “under-performed” relative to expectations with PG13 off the court, failing to hit 60 fantasy points in either of these last two games despite a triple-double against Philly and a near triple-double last night versus San Antonio. On a short slate like this, with a ton of punt value seemingly available – I am treating Westbrook the same way as I have the last two slates – with PG13 out, he is the first man in my builds.
Gordon, Faried probable for Rockets vs. Boston. Green questionable with strep throat. Shumpert doubtful.
— Jonathan Feigen (@Jonathan_Feigen) March 2, 2019
The Rockets-Celtics game is where I think I want to plant my flag on this slate as we get a high total at 226, tight spread at 2.5 and a national TV game with clear stars to build around. The Rockets look unlikely to have either Iman Shumpert or Gerald Green today which puts even more on the plate of Harden who is fresh off a 95 fantasy point outing against the Heat.
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Clint Capela ($12.2K) remains a cheap way to get secondary exposure to the Rockets while correlating well with Harden in the pick and roll. Capela has now played 30+ minutes in three straight games and dropped 50 fantasy points against the Celtics in their only other meeting with a massive 24/19 line.
Austin Rivers ($6K) is another punt play that helps you go Stars and Scrubs on this slate who was tasked with playing 30 minutes against the Heat and put up 24 fantasy points which would crush value at this price point here tonight. Although it sounds like Eric Gordon and Kenneth Faried will be back, Gerald Green being out alongside Shump, would clear a path for major minutes again for Rivers.
On the Celtics side, any time Kyrie Irving ($16.6K) is in a prime time game against another superstar, this is when I want to get my exposure as I think the Celtics guard is capable of putting up 50+ fantasy points as he did in the earlier season meeting between these two teams.
Finding a secondary piece on Boston is usually a dart throw with so many bodies and usage to go around, but I actually like this spot for Jayson Tatum ($11.5K) who has a a sneaky high ceiling as a result of his blocks/steals upside he has been showing in recent games. From a pure metrics perspective the best place to attack Houston is at PF where they rank 23rd in Def-Eff so this could be a spot where Tatum flashes a ceiling game.
Of course as I go to hit publish we get the news that Kawhi Leonard will be out tonight which immediately pushes Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam into elite play status tonight. In the last two games that Kawhi has missed, Lowry has gone for 46 and 47 fantasy points while Siakam has dropped 67 and 34 fantasy points.
Enjoy the slate all – sorry for the brief article but Dad Life called – will be back in full force on Monday’s slate.
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