College basketball betting: 3 games to bet and win cash (March 7)

Betting information for tonight’s top college basketball games.

Although tonight’s college basketball schedule tonight is light on star power — only four top-25 teams are in action — there are opportunities to win some money betting on the right games.

Iowa (21-8) at No. 21 Wisconsin (20-9)

We’ll start at Kohl Center, where the No. 21 Wisconsin Badgers play host to the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Now, if you’ve bet sports for any length of time, you are undoubtedly familiar with all the various trend statistics that gamblers love to pass around like Pepto-Bismol at a poetry reading (well, at least that was my experience). While I think such numbers are interesting, I caution bettors from putting too much stock in them, because they are almost always factored into the line. In fact, the best way to view many trend stats is to bet against them.

For example, in their last 29 games on the road, the Hawkeyes are 7-21-1 against the spread (ATS) and I have little doubt that dismal record is one of the reasons Wisconsin is favored by seven points tonight, even though the first matchup between these teams was relatively close — albeit at Iowa.

My Bet Ratings (which measure wagering value) strongly favor Iowa this time around. College basketball road teams with a BR of 2.00 or greater and a positive point differential (Iowa is averaging 79.7 points per game this season and allowing just 73.7) have produced a 6.6 percent return on investment (ROI) since 2007.

• Since 1997, Wisconsin is 18-16 ATS against Iowa.
• In their last 29 meetings, the O/U total has exceeded today’s 139.5 just four times (13.8 percent).
• Since 2002, the margin of victory has been 7 points or less 14 of 29 times.

Play: Iowa (+7 or greater).

No. 19 Cincinnati (25-4) at No. 25 UCF (22-6)

Next, we’ll head to Central Florida, where the No. 25 UCF Knights welcome the Cincinnati Bearcats to town. Although UCF is favored by just two points, this series hasn’t produced a lot of close games, as eight of the 11 previous matchups have resulted in a double-digit margin of victory, with the Bearcats winning 10 of those contests.

Given Cincinnati’s past domination and the Bet Ratings for this game, it’s hard to understand why the Bearcats are underdogs. And like Seton Hall last night, I think Cincinnati is a great play on the moneyline at +120 or greater.

The last time these two teams faced each other on Feb. 21, Cincinnati won 60-55 at home, despite shooting just 40.4 percent from the field, including 3-for-13 from leading scorer Jarron Cumberland.

I suspect the Bearcats will play much better tonight and I think they offer great value.

• Cincinnati is 7-4 ATS against UCF in their 11 previous meetings.
• 43 of the Bearcats’ last 55 road games have gone under the total, with one push.
• In this series, 10 of the 11 games have gone under the total, but only four have been under today’s O/U total of 127 points (stressing again that the linemakers are not oblivious to trends).

Play: Cincinnati (+120 or greater on the moneyline).

SMU (13-15) at No. 12 Houston (27-2)

SMU is just 6-9-1 ATS against Houston as an underdog since 1996, but I still think the 13 points the Cougars are favored by is a little high. True, Houston won by 11 at SMU on Jan. 16, but the Mustangs were a dismal 5-of-24 from beyond the arc that day, including 1-for-8 from leading scorer Jahmal McMurray, who is normally a 38 percent shooter from 3-point territory.

In fact, the last nine times they’ve traveled to Houston, the Mustangs have won outright on four occasions and haven’t lost by 13 points or more since Feb. 16, 2008.

Granted, SMU isn’t exactly on a roll right now, having lost eight of nine, including an embarrassing 95-48 defeat at the hands of UCF (see above). Nonetheless, history is in the Mustangs’ corner, as road underdogs of 10 points or more have covered over 55 percent of the time when possessing the highest Bet Rating.

Play: SMU (+12.5 or greater).