It’s not over ’till it’s over: the case for Juventus

Juventus will need their stars to step up at home and deliver a famous victory if they want to reach the Champions League quarterfinals.

Down 2-0 to Atletico Madrid, Juventus return home to Allianz Stadium needing a massive performance on both offense and defense to advance. However, no team are as well suited to score goals and keep a clean sheet as the Old Lady.

Goals from Atletico’s Uruguayan defensive duo, Diego Godin and Jose Maria Gimenez, off set-pieces were the difference last time, and will once again be a threat in Turin.

Atletico, like Juventus, are stout defensively, and goals don’t come easily. Breaking down the Atletico defense will be a challenge, but not one to risk exposing the defense over.

Should Juve concede just one goal, they’ll need four to advance, due to the away goals rule. Any lapses on defense should spell the end for Juve’s Champions League hopes.

But Juventus are still capable of going through. Both Ajax and Manchester United claimed surprise victories after losing in the first leg, but it would be no surprise if Juventus flipped the narrative.

Juve have 16 clean sheets in 27 Serie A matches this season, as well as four in seven Champions League matches, including two against Valencia and one at Old Trafford.

The Italian counter to Godin and Gimenez is the veterans Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini. Both pairs of center-backs are among the best in the world, but need support from the full-backs that flank them.

For Juve, that means Alex Sandro and Joao Cancelo must step up and support Bonucci and Chiellini in keeping a shutout. In the first leg, Mattia De Sciglio was picked ahead of Cancelo to provide more defensive cover. If Maxi Allegri thinks Cancelo is a liability, he may play the Italian again.

When Juve’s defense is on top of its game, there aren’t many better. Support must come from the midfield, however. Miralem Pjanic will sit just in front of the defense, and will likely be supported by Blaise Matuidi and either Emre Can or Rodrigo Betancur. The two midfielders next to Pjanic will be important to press the Atletico midfielders and provide pressure on the opposition forwards, while also supporting the forwards with deep runs.

The defense will likely be the first preparation Allegri focused on, and will not be easy to break down. Given how both goals in the last leg came from set-pieces, Allegri will also have tidied up and prepared against Atletico’s usual routines.

Juve’s ace in the hole will be Cristiano Ronaldo. The Portuguese has 121 Champions League goals, 60 of which have come in the knockout stages. It wouldn’t be wise to bet against Ronaldo stepping up yet again, especially against his former crosstown rival. Ronaldo has an incredible 22 goals in 32 games against Atletico.

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With a well organized defense, and a proven goalscorer, Juventus have the initial ingredients to overturn the tie. The biggest uncertainty will be if Juventus can break down the Atletico defense and provide service to Ronaldo. Paolo Dybala and Ronaldo will likely partner up top with Mario Mandzukic. It will be up to the three of them to disorient and disrupt the Atletico defenders.

The biggest inconsistency has been Dybala, who while incredibly talented, has plenty of down days, including the previous match at the Wando Metropolitano.

Given how narrow that attacking three prefer to play, the full-backs will be required to provide plenty of service into the box and stretch the field horizontally.

If Juventus grab a quick goal, Atletico won’t get a chance to get situated and comfortable on defense. Once that backline gets entrenched, Juventus will have a hard time breaking them down. But Juve have yet to be shut out at home; at least one goal is extremely likely, it’s the second that Juventus need to worry about.

The longer the match goes with Juve chasing a result, the more likely they expose themselves on defense and Atletico hit on the break. Last match, Juve controlled 64 percent of the possession. That number will likely be even higher at home, as they chase multiple goals.

But it won’t take much for things to go Juve’s way. The defense is strong, and knows the importance of a clean sheet as the primary goal. While Ronaldo and company can be expected to score at least one at home, someone else will be called upon to score as well. A defender or midfielder could see themselves in an unusual situation when a great chance falls to them, and whether or not they have the composure could decide the game.