The Step Back 2019 NBA Draft Big Board: March Update

With March Madness rolling around, it’s time to take stock of which 2019 NBA Draft prospects to watch as we head into the NCAA Tournament.

Tier 1 – Potential Franchise-Changer

Duke’s struggles to field a competent offense sans Zion with two other top-3 recruits is yet another bullet point in the long list of reasons there shouldn’t be debate about the top overall pick. Injury shouldn’t be a factor, both because it’s not severe or risk-causing, and because injury in this drat should not be a disqualifier, as you’ll see below.

Tier 2 – Solid franchise building blocks with slim star potential

Barrett has moved into his own tier, not because of his own superiority to Jarrett Culver, but due to Culver’s struggles in conference play. Culver is still a much safer bet as a defensive prospect, and likely as a cutter and decision-maker; but if he doesn’t shoot, he’s not a creation prospect, and conference play has cast doubt on that upside being there. He has shot just 21.7 percent from three, and his two-point field goal percentage has also dipped to 51.8 percent, a poor indicator of shooting given he’s still finishing at a strong rate. In a vacuum, I still would probably be more comfortable with projecting Culver as a positive rotation player in three years – but Barrett is probably still the only other guy with the traditional upside you want in a top-three pick besides Zion.

Tier 3 – Home run swings and likely solid role players

One of the features of this draft is the wide array of interpretations of draft stock outside of the top two or three players. Analytics guys have their favorites, like Jontay Porter; Eye Testers have their set of favorites, like Ja Morant; and NBA teams are all over the map in between. So seeing the guys that our Brendon Kleen has going 18th and 16th, respectively, in his latest mock draft up this high on our big board shouldn’t be a huge shock, and the disparity shouldn’t delegitimize either exercise. We are going to see huge differences in where players are drafted relative to where scouts rate them in a vacuum, far bigger than in previous years.

So why put Porter and White this high, over more palatable top-10 prospects at their positions in Bol Bol and Ja Morant? For Porter, I trust that his injury will be less likely to have long-term impact on his health than Bol’s. While ACLs are scary, players return from them more reliably than from stress injuries in the feet, especially when long-term durability was already a question for Bol. I also see Porter’s game translating to a more traditional NBA role – smart team defenders at the five that can finish, shoot, and pass don’t come along very often, and despite Porter’s lack of athleticism, he fills almost every box you want from a modern center outside of rim-running and quick-twitch shot blocking. White, meanwhile, isn’t the athlete or finisher Morant is at the college level, but he should be better at both early on in the NBA thanks to his size and ability to control his momentum. White’s also a criminally underrated defender, allowing him to potentially play the two to a degree that isn’t likely from the rest of the lottery-level point guards. I feel most confident about White and Porter being the rotations players at their positions in the class, and that confidence is what I value in this class.

I ranked Dennis Smith Jr. third on my final 2017 Big Board, and while I don’t think that he’s cooked by any means as an NBA prospect, he’s been a foundational player for my draft philosophy, which is why I hesitate to value Morant highly. Explosive point guards that are low on functional skill, are iffy shooters, and who struggle with control of the situation are guys who have much longer development curves than players like Lonzo Ball or Trae Young whose games are predicated on handle, shooting, and feel. It takes longer to become Russell Westbrook than it does to become Kyrie Irving, and it certainly takes more patience to do so. The floor is also lower — a guy like Ball can still be a potentially valuable rotation player even if he can’t shoot at all, while a guy in Morant’s mold that doesn’t click as an NBA decision-maker becomes Brandon Jennings.

Morant is getting all of the love right now, very likely only because Garland is not playing. Garland’s skill set is going to have a much easier time translating into probable value on a rookie deal, though, and that’s why I have him higher.

The list of players who have been drafted since 2011 that shot under 41 percent on two-point field goals with a BPM over 2.0 at any point in college, as Reddish has this year:

Jerian Grant, Isaiah Cousins, Michael Gbinije, Devon Hall, Russ Smith, Isaiah Whitehead, Tony Carr, Devonte’ Graham, Tyler Ulis, Spencer Dinwiddie, Andrew Harrison, P.J. Hairston, Sindarius Thornwell, Malachi Richardson, Xavier Thames, Marcus Paige, Aaron Holiday, Kim English

The best player on this list is Dinwiddie, who made monumental improvement after doing this in his freshman year; the second-best is Seth Curry, who went undrafted; the third is probably Thornwell, who is probably the closest player to Reddish in terms of skill set and frame. Reddish’s defense and spot-up shooting from three are good enough to have him up here, but this is not very inspiring.

Tier 4 – Players who are justifiably lottery options

Another player I’m outside the consensus on. Langford has talent, but he’s far too passive for me to buy that he’s a true threat to turn into a creation option in the NBA, and the shooting question looms.

Washington’s nuclear February helped to redefine who he can be as a player at the NBA level. Both he and Williams are NBA wing/four hybrids masquerading as college big men.

Back from injury, Doumbouya has shown positive strides in terms of aggression and shooting mechanics. He could really be a riser late in the process if he continues to put things together.

It’s hard to see how anonymous Johnson is on both ends for the Wildcats and envision him as a real lottery prospect. He disappears from games for long stretches, and has minimal creation responsibility. He, like Reddish, is almost purely theoretical as a prospect, and those players are incredibly dangerous.

Tier 5 – First round level prospects

Hopefully Queta’s 13-point, 11-rebound effort in Utah State’s upset of Nevada was a coming out party for his NBA stock. He’s improved throughout the season and might have one of the higher defensive ceilings of any big in the class. I’m mentally prepared for him to not even test the waters, but he absolutely should.

There are several players in this class with one glaring weakness that annoys me. I wish Darius Garland was 6-foot-4. I wish Cam Reddish could finish. I wish Romeo Langford could shoot. And I really, really wish Naz Reid wasn’t incredibly stiff, because he plays like a smooth, fluid face-up four, but just doesn’t have the quickness to reliably project to the next level.

Okpala gets a lot of buzz because of his offensive upside and size, but doesn’t have the quickness or shake to have his driving game translate. That’s why I have him and Washington flipped compared to the consensus. Athletically, I just don’t buy Okpala=in the same way I do Washington.

Davis has flown under the radar as a toolsy wing with some shot-creation and on-ball defensive equity. There are plenty of guys like that in this draft, but few have the flexibility and strength combination he does.

Bassey has looked like a real prospect in recent weeks. Given that he’s absolutely declaring for the draft after this year, that seems ideal.

Another foot injury drives Wade down a bit here, even though he’s looked decent when he has played this season.

Tier 6 – The rest

Holman approximates much of the value Hachimura will provide on offense in the NBA, and actually provides real rim protection strength and the potential to guard pick-and-rolls competently. Yet Hachimura is getting lottery hype, while Holman barely scratches the top of the second round on mainstream boards.

The stress injury penalty strikes again. Tillie’s game is fantastic, but he probably needs to get healthy and might even need another year at Gonzaga to prove himself draftable.

Simonds and Dort, the “Athletic wing with creation upside that absolutely cannot shoot or care consistently” tier.

A small part of ranking Magee and Schofield together is just to put the two polar opposites of the NBA body type spectrum next to each other.

We’re only two months out from actually getting a chance to see the NBA’s favorite social media intern on a basketball court.

Players with a 59 percent true shooting rate, 2.0 steal rate, six free throw attempts per game, and a defensive box plus/minus over 2.0: Zion Williamson, Grant Williams, Noah Dickerson of Washington, and Jeremiah Martin of Memphis. Those are some simple statistical benchmarks of success, and areas Williams and Williamson dominate Dickerson fails the eye test, and then there’s Martin, who is notable as a 6-foot-3 guard among a bunch of bigs. Why not take a flier on this athletic scoring guard who makes a ton of impact on the floor?