NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday, March 13

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Tuesday’s NBA DFS slate was a beautiful reminder of March NBA. The Chicago Bulls saw players like Ryan Arcidiacano at 70% ownership in GPP’s while Kris Dunn (50%) and Otto Porter Jr. (60%) were not far behind. Oh and remember when I tried to “play it safe” by stacking the game that mattered with the Clippers and Blazers – well the Clippers decided to rest Danilo Gallinari in the middle of a playoff race well after lock. This shall serve as my reminder to keep my bankroll commitments light until MLB DFS starts and hopefully it is a listen to you all as well!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Wednesday Slate Breakdown:

Opening up this six game NBA slate we have some big time match-ups loaded with stars and what I think will end up being some pretty obvious spots starting with the Rockets-Warriors.

The big news here is the Warriors will rest Kevin Durant here tonight which as we all know gives boosts to the remaining starters and will likely push more ownership towards Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and DeMarcus Cousins.

On the season, with Durant off the court and Boogie on – we have some interesting sample size data. In 200 minutes, Boogie has a 35% usage rate with 1.42 FP/M while Klay Thompson has a 33% usage rate with over a FP/M. Curry meanwhile has only seen the court in 60 minutes in that scenario but does have a 29% usage rate with 1.17 FP/M.

If you look back at the previous three games these teams have played, the fantasy production really has been underwhelming for the most part. James Harden put up 91 fantasy points in the match-up that Chris Paul missed but was held to 41 fantasy points in the game CP3 played. The top fantasy performance for a Golden State player this year has been Steph Curry at 51 fantasy points – so the argument I think can be made that the ceilings here are not as high as the pricing and ownership will likely follow.

Of the six games on the slate, this game has the second lowest projected pace so the case can be made to fade this spot and look elsewhere. Conversely, the pricing is “soft enough” where you can build a five man stack of Harden/Capela and run it back with Cury/Klay and Boogie and you still have $7.2K per player on FantasyDraft for the last three spots on your roster which is more than fair considering how much value we will likely have here tonight.

To me, the absence of Durant here tonight I think pushes more people towards this game stack blindly – the idea that when Durant is out you play the other Warriors has always been a rule for DFS players in the past but with Cousins now playing 30+ minutes a night, there are still a ton of mouths to feed and the Rockets represent a massive pace down environment for the Dubs.

This may come back to bite me tonight but I think an all-out fade of what I think will be the highest owned game may be the right way to attack this slate.

NBA DFS – All the Pivots!

One of the reasons I think you can make a strong case for a fade of the popular Rockets/Warriors is that there are so many other viable pivots at the top end of this slate which can offer you similar raw point upside at a fraction of the ownership.

Sandwiched in between James Harden ($20.5K) and Stephen Curry ($17.1K) tonight are two other high-end stars in arguably a much higher ceiling game environment – Russell Westbrook ($19.1K) and Paul George ($17.4K)

The OKC-Brooklyn game tonight has the highest projected pace on the slate featuring two teams that rank in the top 10 in pace of play over the last 15 games. The total which has now been released sits at 231.5 which is the highest of any game on the slate (even higher than the Rockets/Warriors) while the Thunder have the highest total on the board at 120.

Earlier this season these teams met in Brooklyn where Westbrook and PG13 went off – to the tune of 71 and 77 fantasy points – and I think all things considered, this duo would be my preference over any pairing in the Houston/Golden State game.

So many times in NBA DFS we let the news dictate where and how we build – I guarantee the dominant conversation today is going to be the usage and FP bumps the Warriors get with Durant off the floor but why exactly are we jumping at the chance to roster the Warriors at their “elevated” usages when Westbrook and PG13 surpass those marks every single night.

Over the last month – Westbrook has a 36% usage rate with 1.6 FP/M while PG13 sits right behind him at 31.2% and 1.22 FP/M.

Even with Durant sidelined, the Warriors still have four All-Stars that are going to battle each other for touches and limit the fantasy ceilings on any given night. The Rockets are back to full strength with CP3 alongside Harden and Capela – all good plays, but when fully healthy this becomes a pick and choose strategy when selecting Houston players.

The Thunder meanwhile are a two man show – every single night – and they get a far better game environment from a pace perspective. If you were to expand the stack at all, Steven Adams ($12.4K) makes a ton of sense as we know – Centers Versus Brooklyn – is a thing. Adams has been a steady 30+ minute player with double-doubles in 4 of his last 7 games.

On the Brooklyn side, I think you can attack this in a few different ways the more I dig into this slate.

If you are going to prioritize Westbrook/PG13 then going full on game stack makes a ton of sense. Think of it this way – this game has the highest total and fastest projected pace which on most nights would make it THE spot to stack but with the Rockets/Warriors on this slate is it possible this game gets a bit over-looked?

D’Angelo Russell ($13.5K) continues to see his price come down but as far as GPP’s go – how do you now run back a Thunder stack with Russell here tonight? Most look at the Nets and think of this team with an expanded rotation that caps the upside of the starters and my guess is those who simply look at the game logs will be misled by the Pistons blow out.

Look back at the Hawks/Cavs games where the Nets ran their starters all right around 30 minutes – with Russell’s price coming down to this level, I think this represents a great chance to jump on when others will not especially as a pairing with Westbrook/PG13.

With DeMarre Carroll out tonight, the Nets rotation gets a bit more secure which should solidify things for the wings in Allen Crabbe ($7.3K) and Joe Harris ($8.8K) who went for 31 and 34 FPTS the first time these teams met in Brooklyn. Crabbe and Harris become nice value plays in any build and ideal salary savers in this game stack with minutes security and upside.

Jarrett Allen ($9K) is much like Russell in that his price makes him really appealing for GPP’s – this is a player who “needs” 31.5 fantasy points to hit 3.5x value – a target he has exceeded in his last two non-blowout games putting up 43 and 35 fantasy points against the Hawks and Cavs.

The more I look at this slate the more I like this game for a GPP game stack however if you are looking for 1-2 pieces here, I think siding with the value guys like Crabbe and Harris is the safest approach.

NBA DFS – One More Place to Pivot:

Again, part of the reason I am fine fading the Warriors/Rockets is that I think we have stars in other games that can outperform at a fraction of the ownership and that sits with the Thunder Buddies but also with the Magic and Wizards – specifically with Bradley Beal ($18K) and Nikola Vucevic (16.7K).

The big news to watch here tonight is the status of Aaron Gordon who is officially questionable to play after missing practice yesterday but has said he will try to play through pain. Orlando actually sits just 1 game out of the playoffs so every game matters for a team that is trying to make the playoffs at this point but the status of AG is really going to be a massive decision point tonight.

Update: Aaron Gordon ($12.5K) is expected to play tonight which makes him an interesting GPP target. In three games against the Wizards this season he has put up 36, 44 and 48 fantasy points – to compare it to his price point, he needs only 37.5 to “hit value” with GPP value at 44 points which he has done in two of his three meetings.

With Gordon off the court this year, Vucevic has a  30.4% usage rate while putting up 1.52 FP/M and when you look at the pricing, he becomes one of the better point per dollar stars on this slate. Meanwhile Beal just continues to crank out 50-60 fantasy point games every night with 50+ fantasy points in five of his last six games.

So the question you can ask yourself here is this:

• Would you rather Harden/Capela with Curry/Klay/Boogie with $7.2K per player left OR
• Beal/Vucevic with Westbrook/PG13 and $7.2K per player left

From a pure upside perspective, I think the second four gives you a greater chance of them all have ceiling games and I really believe the ownership will be lower.

If Gordon does sit – we could get some more value here as well if they decide to unleash Khem Birch ($6.1K) especially with Wes Iwundu also banged up. It has been two months since AG missed a game and in those outings it was Jonathan Simmons, now on the Sixers, who got the starting nod. Thankfully this is the first game of the night so we should have all the news we need here to see if we can lock in some value from the Magic side of the ball.

NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

Please note – this lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be considered a Plug and Play lineup. 

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G: Russell Westbrook

G: Bradley Beal

G: Allen Crabbe

F/C: Paul George

F/C: Nikola Vucevic

F/C: Rodions Kurucs

UTIL: Ed Davis

UTIL: Khem Birch

Slate Overview: With so much focus today likely on the Rockets and Warriors, I think pivoting off them to the Thunder stars and the Vuc/Beal duo gives you every bit the upside and a fraction of the ownership.

Assuming we get the value we expect, a Stars and Scrubs approach is likely the way to go with multiple paths to the stars you want to attack.

As I said in the open – this is late season NBA – be smart with your bankroll, scale back and start to prepare yourself for MLB DFS. Personally, at this point in the year I am going to look more towards GPP’s only and avoid cash games – build my lineup, take my shot and move on.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings each and every day!