MLB Bets To Win – Opening Day, Thursday March 28
By John Fazio
Good day and greetings from your MLB bets to win handicapping center. I hope this season is as good or better than the past – let’s dive in and see what this year brings.
MLB bets always looks to uncover value especially early in the season as changes from last year take effect. Each year rolls out new and sometimes crazy trends even as players from the same team remain intact, and other teams such as San Diego make unexpected moves trying to right a ship long since sunk.
So here we go with our MLB bets to win – and here’s a toast to the gambling gods before the first bet is made – may they keep us away from those crazy bad beats. All times Eastern.
Washington (-1.33) rolls it up over the New York Mets, 1:05 pm
Without Bryce Harper the Washington Nationals embark on a new path as they attempt to remain competitive in their own division. We think they can. In a one-on-one lineup comparison with the Mets, the Nationals seem to have the better of it overall.
Add the fact they are playing at home with Scherzer starting while the line is fairly muted, and you have a good opportunity to grab a win.
Not a lot of emphasis should be put on spring training results, but the Mets gave up more runs as a team than any other except for Baltimore in the Grapefruit league. They are going to be counting on Jacob DeGrom to pitch some strong innings which normally does not happen the first game of the season.
If his pitch count soars in the first 4 innings, the Mets will have a lot of trouble containing Washington the rest of the way.
MLB Bets To Win – Brew Crew Holds Off Cardinal Nation
Milwaukee (-1.07) edges St Louis, 2:10 pm
While the addition of Paul Goldschmidt will certainly be a boost to the Cardinal lineup, their total run output in spring training was the lowest of any team. On the mound, witness their opening day starter Miles Mikolas, whose spring training numbers look like this: 10 innings pitched, 13 hits giving up 5 runs.
This is not good enough for the best pitcher on the team and could spell big trouble in a hitters environment like Miller Park. St Louis is well-known for their extremely loyal fans but Milwaukee has fanatical fans that view the start of every season as their year to be world series champions.
The stadium will be rocking and the best talent resides with the home team.
San Diego (-1.11) slips by San Francisco, 4:10 pm
Only time will tell if the Padres new strategy of landing a big name will excite the fans and allow the team to outperform their recent performance. They will be counting a lot on Hosmer, Myers and Machado to ignite an all too familiar listless offense while putting together a positive attitude forward so other players will be driven to excel.
While this probably will not work thru the season as a whole, it should have an impact early when expectations are at their highest. San Diego is coming off a good spring training campaign as they try to build a winning attitude, topping the Cactus League standings with an 18-11 mark including winning 8 of 11 on their home field.
Let’s give them a shot to have their new plan succeed in their home opener.
Kansas City (-1.09) throttles Chicago, 4:10 pm
A new season and the up and down Kansas City Royals have a chance to start off with a win against a perceivably weaker White Sox team. The royals went 11-3 on their home field in spring training boasting the best home record of all teams and pounding out a lot of runs.
In addition they enter the regular season on a 5 game winning streak, again best of any other team. While this means little to the season in general, it does mean something in the first game especially at home.
MLB Bets To Win – Cubs Dismantle Rangers
Chicago (-1.27) slams Texas, 4:05 pm
Texas could be in for a rough year with the retirement of their long time leader Adrian Beltre and a few other defections. This spring training they had negative total runs, posting -34 which is worst of all teams except for Cincinnati at -35.
This is significant because they wanted to create a winning atmosphere quickly after last years poor performance and the departure of their biggest motivator Beltre. It has not happened as of yet, and they are heading into the season with a glaring lack of confidence and an untested pitching staff.
By contrast, the Cubs posted the widest run total on the positive side out-scoring their opponents by +48 runs, the best of any spring training team including Houston and the Yankees who were +40 and +39 respectively.
Texas is at home, and will be playing in front of a sold-out crowd, but the talent difference is too wide to ignore.
Minnesota (+1.10) surprises Cleveland, 4:10 pm
A lot of talk this month has centered around Cleveland, about the superior talent they have and the expectation they will be the clear front-runner in their division. This has driven the line farther than it should go and makes Minnesota a strong value play.
This game should have the Twins as a small favorite and the advantage in the line can be taken on the side with the plus money or by taking the Twins +1 1/2 runs laying a small amount of juice. Our MLB bets to win projection says this will not be a blow-out for the Indians.
MLB Bets To Win – Mariners humble Red Sox
Seattle (+1.78) topples Boston, 7:10 pm
In the featured and in fact only night game on this large slate, MLB bets is predicting a Mariner upset over the favored Red Sox in Seattle’s home opener.
Seattle is starting a lefty against Boston and rightfully so if last year is any indication. Although Boston had a winning record against lefties last year, the percentage of wins was significantly lower than against righties.
Boston starter Sale was in contract negotiation and did not pitch in spring training until the middle of March. He did have a good outing, but it is highly unlikely the star will pitch deep into this game. By contrast Seattle starter Gonzales needed only 69 pitches to get thru 6 innings in the teams win over Oakland and could go 7 innings if he stays in form.
Recapping The Picks For Opening Day:
Washington money line -1.33
Milwaukee money line -1.07
San Diego Money line -1.11
Kansas City money line -1.09
Chi Cubs money line -1.27
Minnesota money line +1.10
Seattle money line +1.78
Other notable teams to our MLB bets to win, including the Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies, are too high a lay for a recommendation. We usually cap the favorite at around -1.40.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Opening Day 2019. dark. Next