DraftKings MLB Early Picks April 4: Paxton or bust!

Rain has already washed out the White Sox and Cardinals, so we are down to a perfectly split slate with four early and four late games for our DraftKings MLB tournaments. I can get used to this having games postponed the day before business. It makes it so much easier to plan our attack.

DraftKings MLB Early Pitcher Plays:

Top Tier:

James Paxton ($10,900): Paxton’s first 2019 outing against this same Orioles team didn’t provide anything that makes us want to spend up for him here. Paxton does have the best room for a rebound though. The Yankees pulled him against the O’s after just 82 pitches. Maybe that’s a harbinger of things to come, but maybe not. Paxton wasn’t sharp in the sixth and the Yanks yanked him. His overall numbers were still strong thanks to the bullpen. Paxton had less strikeouts than Strasburg or Syndergaard, but he also has the highest potential for a rebound.

Stephen Strasburg ($10,300): Strasburg only put up 16.1 DraftKings points on the Mets earlier this week. Paxton wasn’t great against the Orioles either. Syndergaard’s line was almost identical to Strasburg’s. So what is the deciding factor here then? None of the three were worth the money the first time around. I’m leaning towards Strasburg simply because Jeff McNeil, the one who hit him hardest last week, is dealing with knee pain so he may be out of the lineup. If McNeil plays, I’ve got nothing. There isn’t much about this whole upper tier that looks appealing right now.

Middle Tier:

Jake Junis ($8,000): Junis picked up 18.6 DraftKings points on the White Sox in the opener and faces a significantly weaker Tigers lineup here. Overall, the Tigers are hitting .250 in 76 at bats with only one homer and five runs to go with a solid 15 strikeouts. Junis could provide the best price per dollar here, but he has nowhere near the strikeout upside of the upper tier.

Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,600): Rodriguez, like most Boston starters, looked terrible in his first start. His career numbers against the A’s are pretty good. .225 average in 89 at bats with three homers, eight runs, and 26 striekouts. That’s enough for me to want to use him at this price, but E-Rod looked positively lost in his first start. I’m not sure he’s over that. If he’s not, there’s enough right handed power in this lineup to get to him.

Bargain Pitchers:

Brett Anderson ($6,300): Honestly, Anderson terrifies me. More accurately, using a lefty against Boston terrifies me. I can make a case for and against Anderson, so I will do both and let you make the case for your unique lineup. In favor of Anderson, he was sharp in his first start, allowing just three hits in six innings to the Angels. That was his fifth scoreless outing in his last ten starts. Good, right? Not so good is Boston’s 15-35(.429) career mart against Anderson. They have not homered, but they have also struck out just twice in those 35 at bats. It seems like way too much risk for the potential reward here.

Spencer Turnbull ($5,800): With only eight pitchers to choose from anyway, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to write up six. However, as you read this, I’m as much discounting guys as hyping them. You couldn’t pay me to use Alex Cobb, so that leaves Turnbull in a pretty intriguing spot. He was solid against the Jays in his first start, but like his colleagues, got no run support. Turnbull also went just five innings but he did notch five strikeouts. There is less risk here with the Royals’ offense than running Anderson against Boston, but this may be a day to go cheap on hitting. This lower tier is frightening, and not in a good way.

My picks: Paxton, Junis

John Hicks is the only Tiger to homer off of Junis, but honestly, I want nothing to do with this Tigers offense. Every single one of them looks overpriced for what they are doing.

On the other side of this, if you aren’t using Turnbull, I’m a big fan of the hot start of Alex Gordon. If you have the money, Mondesi and Merrifield are worth a look at the top of this order.

Michael Conforto, aka the Nationals crusher, has hit both homers for the Mets off of Strasburg and driven in four of the six runs before this year. If McNeil plays, use him. McNeil was very good against Strasburg last week.

Anthony Rendon didn’t so much against Thor last week, but he is still 10-29(.345) with two homers and seven RBI against him. Victor Robles hit the homer last week. Juan Soto is 4-9 with two RBI against Thor already.

The obvious stack spot here is the Yankees against Alex Cobb. Want a tasty little tidbit? The average exit velocity for Aaron Judge against Cobb is a staggering 100.9 mph. Judge is pretty much a must play today. Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Gary Sanchez, and Brett Gardner have all homered off of Cobb as well.

The A’s have some guys that can give lefties trouble. Stephen Piscotty, Chad Pinder, and Kendrys Morales have all homered off of Eduardo Rodriguez in their career, but the team’s stats as a whole still aren’t great against him.

I kind of want to stack Red Sox, but I also like money. Playing Red Sox has been a good way to lose that lately. Eduardo Nunez is 4-8 against Brett Anderson. Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland, and Mookie Betts has hit Anderson well as well if you want to go this route.

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