Welcome to the FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups article for another big Split Slate. We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate.
Yesterday’s FanDuel MLB Early Only slate was not an easy one to forecast. We were focused on German Marquez and Charlie Morton, and they each put up at least 40 points for very good plays. I ended up using Morton in most of my lineups, as I figured he’d ultimately give me the most value, and well…he did.
But, Freddy Peralta and Carlos Rondon were the best pitching plays of the Early Only slate. Peralta and Luis Castillo each hurled gems, and Peralta came up most victorious, providing nearly 70 FanDuel MLB points with a modest $7,500 salary. If you had Freddy in your lineup, you were already on your way to a solid pay-day.
We had some solid Early Only offensive suggestions, but the Reds stack clearly fell flat. In fact, that’s something we need to keep in mind for PNC Park tonight. However, as the morning progressed, I started to realize the Nats may bounce back after the Bryce Harper boo-ing fiasco was over. So I stacked them right around lock, and boy did that pay off!
While Syndergaard is typically better at home, in New York, that’s something to keep in mind for the Early Only Thursday slate.
The Main slate was frankly more difficult, and don’t expect that to change today. Somehow, $6,000 Mike Minor was a 67 FanDuel MLB point play last night. I never would’ve guessed that and I’m still confident in saying it was an odd outcome.
Fortunately, many of our Braves and Cubs offensive focused players worked out nicely. That paired with a last minute idea to plug Brandon Belt into the 1B spot really worked out well for the Main slate lineups. But, in the end I couldn’t compete with anyone who played Minor in the GPP’s.
The Thursday slates, unfortunately, look very similar to Wednesday. However, that could be a good thing if we play our picks right. But, like I said yesterday, it’s more of a high-risk high-reward type of slate. Between the two slates, the Early Only is a little easier to predict, with the Main slate being a toss-up.
Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @MattyMcMatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.
Weather Note: The White Sox and Cardinals already postponed their games against the Mariners and Padres, respectively. Thankfully, we already now that so there’s no guessing…they’re already out of the slate.
Otherwise, there are no other delay or postponement possibilities. But, the games in Cleveland and Detroit are expected to be very chilly, with temperatures in the high 30’s to low 40’s. So, I wouldn’t expect big-hitting games in either location.
UPDATE: There is a chance for rain to delay the game in Atlanta. This is very important for our Main slate stack on Thursday!
With weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…
FanDuel MLB: Top Pitchers Early Only Slate
Taking another shot at James Paxton ($10,600) against an Orioles team who looked horrendous last season, and many thought would likely land at around 100 losses this season, is tempting. But, I don’t want to spend $10,600 of my salary on a pick that likely get at least around 30 points, but may not climb above 40 points.
Fortunately, both Noah Syndergaard ($10,000) and Stephen Strasburg ($9,900) are each similar options to Paxton, just with a more difficult match-up. We’ve actually already seen the Thors vs. Stras match-up this season, with each starting the second game of the season in Nationals Park.
As you may recall from our post before that game, Syndergaard has a historically terrible history in Nationals Park. Fortunately, his stats get better in New York, but Noah still has a long history of struggling against the Nationals offense, even without Harper or Turner.
However, Thor does have a better record against the Nats in Citi Field, 3-2, with a 2.04 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Syndergaard also averages around 9.3 K’s per nine innings against the Nats at home. So, Thor is a solid play, but that’s not where I’m focused Thursday afternoon.
Strasburg ALSO fairs better in Citi Field against the Mets. In his ten starts there, he’s 7-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. And while they’re both giving up around sits hits per game in this park to the other team, Strasburg is averaging nearly 13 K’s per game in Citi Field.
Stephen gave up several hits and and four runs last time he faced the Mets. But, Strasburg also piled up eight K’s for at least 30 points. In the end, Stras was the better MLB DFS play in this match up at Nationals Park. And, if you consider historical metrics as a guide (as I do), it sure looks like he’s by-far the best play in Citi Field today, as well.
If I want to fade the chalky plays, my go-to will be Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,600), especially for GPP lineups. Yes, Eduardo looked rough in Seattle, but point me to a Red Sox pitcher (or really any so far this season) who didn’t struggle against the Mariners last weekend. He has a better match-up in Oakland, and could be a cheaper 40+ MLB DFS point play for us on Thursday afternoon.
FanDuel MLB: Top Pitchers Main Slate
If you’re one of those readers who flips through these posts and focuses only on the pictures to figure out who the writer likes for their MLB DFS lineups, you’re probably thinking…wow, he liked Edinson Volquez ($6,800)? Do I? Well, no…not really.
However, I do think Volquez is a great GPP play, I just couldn’t find a Getty Image picture with Jordan Lyles ($7,700) in it.
First, addressing Volquez, he is facing an Angels lineup currently with a .216 wOBA, so he is a solid play at a low-run QS and win point pitcher. However, the Halos are also only fanning at a 14.4% rate, so they’re not an ideal team to target for a pitching not striking out batters at a high rate. But for a low-owned GPP play, he’s a decent shot.
Back to Lyles, we learned something yesterday. I don’t expect much offense from the Pirates or Reds in Pittsburgh on Thursday night. For one reason, it’ll be chilly which often reduces the loft in the ball. However, the bigger reason is neither lineup is really producing many runs.
So why Lyles vs. Tyler Mahle ($7,000)? Well, Mahle does average about one K per inning, but the Pirates are only striking out at a 18.3% rate. Meanwhile, the Reds have a dreadful .234 wOBA with a very high 27.3% rate.
So, it’s likely Jordan can stay in the game longer, giving up less hits, runs, and walks, while piling up enough K’s to match his one/inning rate, or about six to seven K’s. That’s a very solid FanDuel MLB point base to build a significant offense on, in a dreadful slate!
FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Early Only Slate
I’m a little worried about the cold air in Detroit, but the Royals and Tigers are two teams who have cheaper or hotter bats I want in my lineups today. Admittedly, Adalberto Mondesi ($4,300) is expensive.
But with nine hits, at least one per game, in his first five games, including two doubles a triple, a home run and five RBI’s, Adalberto is already panning out to be the emerging fantasy baseball superstar many were touting to start this season.
Also, Alex Gordon ($3,300) is a cheaper lefty bat facing a Spencer Turnball, right-handed, who’s giving up hits and runs at a rate that makes me feel comfortable Gordon will continue his on-base and scoring streak Thursday. Meanwhile, the Tigers offer some mild but consistent offense from cheap plays like Niko Goodrum ($2,700) at 2B.
Before I look for another stack, I’m plugging Steve Pearce ($2,800) into all of my Early Only lineups. Pearce hasn’t played yet this season, but ended last year with three home runs in the last two games of the World Series. Fortunately for us, Pearce is reported to be coming off the injured list on Thursday and should be in the starting lineup. For only $2.8K on FanDuel…giddy up!
OK, now I’m looking at doing something risky. This worked at the last minute yesterday, and I think it could work again on Thursday. Yes, the Nationals lost Turner for a while to a broken finger. Yes, they no longer have Harper in their lineup. But, there is still a ton of talent in the Nats lineup and they’re shockingly affordable against a pitcher they’ve owned recently.
Victor Robles ($2,800) is 2-for-2 against Thor, with a home run. Juan Soto ($3,400) and Anthony Rendon ($4,200) each have around a 1.000 OPS against Syndergaard, with Rendon going yard off Thor twice. Adam Eaton ($3,000) is hitting around .300 against Noah, and Ryan Zimmerman ($2,300) has the same .500 OPS as Turner, against Syndergaard.
Thor pitches better in Citi Field, so there’s risk with the Nats stack, but they still have a solid history against this very good starting pitcher for the Mets.
FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Main Slate
One of the fun things about having a crappy list of pitchers for the Main slate, is that we can pick the best of the worst pitchers while saving a ton of FanDuel MLB salary to then load up on some of the best hitting talent of the day.
I’m starting with the Cubs and Braves in Atlanta, again. First of all, as I’m writing this post, I noticed there are increasing chances for rain in the Atlanta area. It appears the rain should be light, so it’s possible the game plays while not being interrupted. However, that is an issue worth watching before you lock in your lineups around 7pm ET Thursday.
The weather issues aside, OK maybe not. It’s also going to be fairly warm (compared to the rest of the country) in Atlanta on Thursday, and SunTrust Park has become known for hitting. Meanwhile, the Braves and Cubs offenses are clearly beginning to wake up this week.
Fortunately, salary isn’t as much of a concern. So it’s entirely feasible to have guys like Freddie Freeman ($4,400) in my lineup with Ozzie Albies ($3,600). Also, for some reason a red-hot Dansby Swanson ($2,300) is dirt-cheap against Yu Darvish. That’s likely because it’s a right-handed batter vs. right-handed pitcher match-up, but Darvish is struggling right now.
Many of the Cubs hitters are obvious, but I also think Mark Zagunis ($2,200) could sneaky into the lineup with lefty Max Fried on the mound for Atlanta. Madden seems to like Zagunis in the lineup against LHP’s, and he’s 3-for-6 so far this season with three doubles, a run, and one RBI.
Now, for another shot at a sneaky stack. I suspect with Matt Harvey‘s history and solid start to the season for the Angels, the Rangers could be low-owned in Los Angeles (well, really Anaheim). But with a .346 wOBA, the Rangers are currently the 7th best offense in baseball, and Harvey has a current history of being very inconsistent.
Unfortunately the Rangers bats are expensive, but as we already pointed out, we have plenty of salary to play with. So Rougned Odor ($3,600), Joey Gallo ($4,100), and Asdrubal Cabrera ($3,700) are each reasonable to play.
I’m especially excited at the possibility of Gallo popping one over the fence on Thursday night. It’s also possible we could see Shin-soo Choo ($3,400) back into the lineup on Thursday.
FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineup for April 4th 2019
Thursday’s split slate resembles Wednesday, but we had solid success cashing on Wednesday. And like yesterday, I think we can use what we learned from those slates, and focus on the high-reward plays, while understanding there’s plenty of risk with each slate.
While Syndergaard should look better in Citi Field, he has a bad history against this Nationals lineup, so I’m stacking the Nats and gabbing Strasburg for pitcher, given his dominating performance in New York. I also like the Royals and Tigers in the Early Only slate.
For the Main slate, I may consider Volquez for some GPP lineups, but I’m mostly using Lyles at pitcher, who seems poised to have the best match-up of the day. That gives me plenty of salary to stack the Cubs, Braves, and Rangers.
Also, while I didn’t dive too much into it, although I mentioned Pearce, there are a couple one-off plays I like in the Early Only slate. Steve Pearce is dirt-cheap with a high FanDuel MLB ceiling, but Ramon Laureano is beginning to look comfortable in the Majors, for the A’s, and has a lot of bat power and speed to pile up points as well.
With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineup for the Early Only and Main FanDuel MLB slates for Thursday, April 3rd 2019:
Early Only Main
P Stephen Strasburg ($9,900) Jordan Lyles ($7,700)
C/1B Steve Pearce ($2,800) Freddie Freeman ($4,400)
2B Niko Goodrum ($2,700) Ozzie Albies ($3,600)
3B Anthony Rendon ($4,200) Asdrubal Cabrera ($3,700)
SS Adalberto Mondesi ($4,300) Dansby Swanson ($2,300)
OF Juan Soto ($3,400) Joey Gallo ($4,100)
OF Ramon Laureano ($2,100) Shin-soo Choo ($3,400)
OF Alex Gordon ($3,300) Mark Zagunis ($2,200)
UTIL Ryan Zimmerman ($2,300) Rougned Odor ($3,600)
Remaining Salary: $0 Remaining Salary: $0
Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel MLB lineups. We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your DFS news and analysis across MLB, NFL, PGA, and NASCAR this summer!
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