MLB Bets To Win, Thursday April 4th – Trends Prevail
By John Fazio
Good day and greetings from MLB bets central. Today many new series begin, and MLB bets has spotted 4 games worthy of attention.
On Wednesday MLB bets was virtually even. Using 1 unit as the base bet and allowing for the lay and take, yesterday showed a unit loss of .02 with the season now standing at +14.77 units.
In general, MLB bets likes to ride the early season trends as most of the public tries to force last years results into the line. There are good and great teams from last year under-performing and the system uses this to garner value against teams that should not be favored.
That said, let’s see if MLB bets can produce a winning day. All times Eastern.
Detroit (-1.05) sails past Kansas City, 1:10 pm
The Tigers are 4-3 on the season having played all their games on the road. The Royals are 2-3 having played all their games at home. The momentum is with Detroit to send their opening day fans home happy.
The pitching match-up is very similar with a small advantage for Detroit because of home/away location. Jakob Junis for KC went 5 2/3 allowing 3 earned runs while Spencer Turnbull for Detroit pitched 5 innings giving up 3 earned runs.
The Tigers are playing a little better and will have a sold out crowd behind them today. That is enough for MLB bets to back them at a pick.
Baltimore (+1.82) knocks off New York, 3:05 pm
MLB bets loves backing big dogs with better records especially at home. Here we go again today as a banged up Yankee squad is playing their first road game at Baltimore’s home opener.
The pitching clash does favor the Yankees, with James Paxton way better than Alex Cobb on paper. However should the Orioles hang around for the first 5 innings they will be the favorite.
New York is too banged up and not hitting well enough to warrant being a huge favorite even with this pitching advantage. MLB bets wants Baltimore – go Birds.
Mlb Bets To Win – A’s strangle Red Sox
Oakland (+1.04) dismantles Boston, 3:37 pm
Betting against the Red Sox in these early season games has been the most profitable single bet of any. Their horrible spring training has carried over into the regular season and except for a good comeback last night they have had a tough go, with no easy wins.
Of course that will change and some point, maybe at any moment, but MLB bets likes to press a trend and this one is a doozy. It’s most likely bet against Boston until they can control an opponent because of the high favorite they almost always are.
Boston has been favored in every game this season. They have also garnered public support somehow, evidently by a convinced majority that the team is too good to keep losing and a win is imminent. They don’t want to look foolish betting against or not being on the Red Sox when they start winning and they did get rewarded yesterday as MLB bets lost with Oakland.
However Boston is still a good fade. The linesmaker doesn’t have to over adjust the line because the public is still there betting Boston. Today the line is close to a pick only because of a solid pitching advantage for Oakland.
Eduardo Rodriguez starts for Boston having thrown 4 innings allowing 5 earned runs last time out. Brett Anderson is coming off a great performance hurling 6 innings of shutout ball giving up only 3 hits.
The official MLB bets play is Oakland but bettors may also want to take the A’s in the first 5 innings to capitalize on this pitching advantage. Should Boston win today, we can put them back in the favored circle again and let them run. Just not quite yet.
MLB Bets To Win – Blue Jays outplay Indians
Toronto (+1.64) upends Cleveland, 6:10 pm
Toronto’s first road game is at Cleveland where they took 2 of 3 last year. Today the line is too high for 2 quality pitchers dueling against each-other.
More from FanSided
- Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
- NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
- 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
- Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
- Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet
Aaron Sanchez starts for the Blue Jays having pitched 5 innings of shutout ball last time out. Trevor Bauer pitched equally as well for Cleveland allowing only 1 run though 7 innings.
MLB bets sees this game as closer to a pick than a favorite of this size. When 2 good pitchers are going it’s anybody’s guess which team will prevail. As a result the large plus money is always the play in this type of situation.
The Indians were shelled at home yesterday as a strong favorite and cannot feel confident at all. Toronto should not roll over in this spot and has a great chance to win.
MLB Bets Recap For Thursday April 4th:
Detroit -1.05
Baltimore +1.82
Oakland +1.04
Toronto +1.64
So far this season the underdogs, especially the big underdogs, have come through and made almost every day a winner. Yesterday was the same thing as MLB bets would have posted a nice winner had the small favorite Phillies hung on to a 2 run lead in the 8th.
In general this trend should continue until the line catches up to the new reality, and that will only happen when the public stops betting so heavily on the under performing preseason favorites. So in other words, maybe never.
It’s on to another day. Let’s enjoy each one, win or lose.
Next. DraftKings PGA: 2019 Valero Texas Open. dark