MLB DFS Pitching: Friday, 4/5
Welcome back to the Friday Edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. Today I’ll be adding FanDuel pricing and expanding this article to cover both FanDuel and DraftKings pitching options.
My goal here is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play.
I wanted to provide a glossary of terms for some of the sabermetrics that I use to analyze pitching each and every day. Here are some of the stats that I use most frequently and a quick explanation.
WHIP = Walks/Hits per Inning Pitched
This is a valuable metric when playing Draftkings as pitchers are penalized for hits and walks unlike the scoring system on FanDuel which only penalizes earned runs.
SIERA = Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average
Just using ERA is a thing of the past and doesn’t really capture the effectiveness of a pitcher that well anymore. SIERA is an ERA estimator that attempts to determine whether or not a pitcher’s actual ERA should have been higher or lower than it was based on how well they pitched.
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching
This metric attempts to estimate what a pitcher’s ERA would be if they got average results on balls that are put into play. Basically trying to strip away the positive or negative effects of good/bad defense behind them or just bad luck on balls hit weakly that fall in for hits.
SS% = Swinging Strike Percentage
The percentage of pitches that a pitcher gets the opposing hitter to swing and miss. Some people don’t love this stat but I do. It generally correlates well with high strikeout percentages and helps us identify pitchers with an arsenal of pitches that can rack up Ks.
GB% = Ground Ball Percentage
Ground balls are good because they can never be home runs. We want to target pitchers with higher ground ball rates whenever possible.
K% = Strikeout Percentage
Percentage of batters that the pitcher has struck out divided by the total number of hitters they’ve faced.
K/9 = Strikeouts per 9 innings
Obviously, strikeouts are one of the most important DFS stats we are looking for. We typically want to target guys who average more than a K per inning or 9 K/9 or better.
There may be some other terms I use this season. I encourage you if you ever want to dive deeper into pitching to check out FanGraphs and dig into as many stats as you want. Your head will spin, it’s so much fun!
MLB DFS Pitching: First Look
Each day I’ll start off listing the pitching matchups for slate here on the introductory slide, usually accompanied by Vegas odds. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits.
I’ll also include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end of every article. Today we have an 8-game main slate that locks at 7:05. Here are today’s matchups with the visiting pitcher listed first and the home pitcher listed second, Vegas odds are listed in parenthesis.
Jake Odorizzi vs. Nick Pivetta
Sonny Gray vs. Joe Musgrove
Trent Thorton vs. Shane Bieber
Rick Porcello vs. Zach Godley
Jose Quintana vs. Brandon Woodruff
Frankie Montas vs. Colin McHugh
Lance Lynn vs. Felix Pena
MLB DFS Pitching: Early Only
We have a 3-game slate on both sites starting at 4:10. There are a few really solid options on that slate and here’s how I would approach it.
FanDuel
I would absolutely pay up for Jack Flaherty (9500) or Tyler Glasnow (8800) on FanDuel. Both are promising young pitchers who have really solid matchups. Flaherty is coming off a bit of a shaky opener, but gets the Padres at home and should only have to face 1-2 left-handers in that lineup. He could definitely be worth that price if he is able to bounce back and dominate the Pads, who have been a pretty cold offense to start the season.
Glasnow has an even better matchup against the Giants, who have been one of the worst offenses in baseball for the first week of the season. He’s a little riskier as he has a bit of a control issue and at times struggles to find the strike zone. His stuff is top shelf, though, as he throws his fastball in the high 90’s and has a nasty overhand curveball that the bottom falls out of.
DraftKings
On DK, I like the idea of pairing one of the aforementioned high-priced arms with the cheapest pitcher on the slate, Tyler Anderson (6k). The Rockies are hosting the Dodgers at Coors and I’m willing to bet we can Anderson at sub 10% ownership even on this 3-game slate.
People just refuse to use pitchers at Coors. However, Anderson is a serious bargain here at this price. He’s been a pretty good pitcher the last few seasons who has flashed major upside for short stretches. He battles some walk issues and doesn’t overpower anyone, but has an excellent changeup and an impressive 12% swinging strike that keeps right-handed hitters off-balance. He has reverse splits and will likely face 7-8 right-handed Dodger bats tomorrow. It’s simple game theory, if no one else will play him, I will. Do you have the guts to fire him up?
MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Aces
Colin McHugh (8.6k FD, 9.5k DK) vs. Oakland
I should probably clarify that none of the guys we have going tonight are actually “aces” but we definitely have a few very attractive options at the top of the salary scale. McHugh made an impressive return to the Astros rotation in his first start, striking out 9 while only walking one over 5 innings. He took the loss but allowed only 2 runs on three hits.
McHugh pitched out of the pen last season and had a great year. He’s got great strikeout numbers and excellent control, and while he will be facing a tough Oakland lineup tonight, there are definitely strikeouts to be had in that lineup. I think he’s likely to pitch well and rack up enough K’s to give us a solid floor for cash games.
Shane Bieber (8.9k FD, 9.3k DK) vs. Toronto
Bieber will be making his first start of the year for the Indians and he couldn’t ask for a better matchup. The Blue Jays have limped out of the gates this season and could be without their best left-handed bat Justin Smoak again tonight. They were no-hit through 7 innings by Bieber’s teammate Trevor Bauer last night. Bieber’s a great control pitcher who throws all four pitches for strikes and his only really bad flaw last season was a ton of hard contact to left-handed hitters. If Smoak is out, he should only have to deal with two of them, and I think he’ll likely be the cash game chalk tonight.
MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pitchers
Frankie Montas (8k both sites) @ Houston
Montas is purely a GPP play for me tonight. I think it’s very likely he pitched a bit over his head in his first start of the season when he pitched six innings with strikeouts and allowed only one run on three hits. He definitely has a live arm and a ton of potential, especially against a Houston team that has struggled offensively the first week of the season.
Houston will only throw a few lefties at Montas (Brantley, Reddick) and so I like this matchup for him quite a bit. Just be warned that his strikeout numbers weren’t that great last year and that his XFIP was almost a whole run higher than his ERA. It’s quite possible he’s taken the next step to be a more consistent starter and I think it’s well worth finding out and using him tonight in case he has begun to figure it out.
Joe Musgrove (7.8k FD, 7.6k DK) vs. Cincinnati
Time for another Pirates homer pick! This pick actually has less to do with how good Musgrove is (slightly above average) and more to do with the favorable ballpark and a cold Cincinnati offense that was shutout last night by Jordan Lyles and several relievers.
Joe pitched 2 innings in relief since he was scheduled to start the first time through the rotation. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but does have a solid curveball and some nice offspeed stuff and mixes his pitches well I think he makes for a great GPP play tonight and I plan on loading up on him on both sites.
MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arms/SP2s
Brandon Woodruff (7.5k FD, 6.8k DK) vs. Chicago Cubs
Woodruff got the win in his first start, allowing only two runs over 5 innings and struck out 5 batters. He will face a solid Cubs offense at home tonight in a dangerous park for pitchers, but I still like his upside here and I think he could go low owned. The Cubs are an offense to be feared, but also one that strikes out a lot. Woodruff had a really nice season last year, pitching primarily out of the pen and his excellent ground ball rate suggests he might be able to make those big Cubs bats pound the ball into the dirt.
Trent Thornton (7.4k FD, 6.2k DK) @ Cleveland
Thornton was really impressive in his first start of the season, whiffing 8 Tigers in 5 innings and allowing only two hits. He’s an excellent play tonight against a Cleveland offense that has been scuffling and could be without their best hitter, Jose Ramirez, who left the game yesterday with an injury.
Don’t go overboard on Thornton, he is a rookie after all and his minor league numbers were solid but don’t indicate he will be that dynamic of a strikeout pitcher. He’s also never pitched more than 124 innings in a season, so I don’t think we are likely to see him go more than 5-6 innings at most even if he is pitching well. Fire him up on DK as an SP2, but I would limit exposure on FanDuel.
MLB DFS Pitching: Gas Can of the Night
Lance Lynn @ L.A. Angels
Lance Lynn is a guy I’ve been stacking against for several years now. He’s had problems with walks and hard contact to left-handed hitters for some time and they’ve only got worse as his career. He’s really only an innings eater and a back-of-the-rotation arm at this point.
The Angels don’t have a ton of lefties to throw at him, but they do have a few really solid options hitting on either side of the best right-handed hitter in the game, Mike Trout. I’m referring to Kole Calhoun and Justin Bour, and the Angels 1-2-3 stack is a very attractive tonight with how bad Lynn looked in his first start this year and considering how his skills have declined over his career.
He throws a ton of fastballs, which is perfect for Calhoun, Trout, and Bour. They should be sitting dead red on fastballs and looking to yank one out of the yard.
MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review
Here’s where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.
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Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.
Cash Game Rankings
- Shane Bieber
- Colin McHugh
- Joe Musgrove
GPP Rankings
- Tyler Thornton
- Frankie Montas
- Brandon Woodruff
- Bieber/McHugh
- Joe Musgrove
Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports!
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