Some of the most successful MLS teams from 2018 are struggling in 2019. When is it time to panic?
Like Toronto FC the year before, reigning MLS Cup champion Atlanta United are struggling in the early part of the season, and aren’t alone among other dominant teams from 2018.
Both Toronto and Atlanta dominated most of their championship season. Toronto broke the MLS season point record with 69, while Atlanta tied it in the following year. The New York Red Bulls, also facing early season troubles, broke the record with 72.
With that unbridled success came the next challenge, the CONCACAF Champions League. Atlanta bowed out in the quarterfinals this year — as did the Red Bulls — to Monterrey of Liga MX, while Toronto fell in the final match to Chivas Guadalajara on penalties.
The focus for both champions was the Champions League, but when the competition ended, league results didn’t pick up.
Atlanta are now following in the footsteps of Toronto before them, but with a slightly different twist.
Toronto dropped MLS matches during the Champions League period, and by the last week of the CCL were 1-1-4.
April turned into May and Toronto had the chance to flip their fortune, but were hit with an injury crisis.
Defenders Justin Morrow, Eriq Zavaleta, Drew Moor, Chris Mavinga and Nick Hagglund all received injuries, forcing head coach Greg Vanney to play captain Michael Bradley at center-back. Ashtone Morgan stepped in at left-back and natural full-back Gregory van Der Wiel at center-back.
Jozy Altidore was also injured, rounding up injuries to five different first team players.
Things never improved for Toronto, and eventually they finished ninth by the end of the season.
It would be strange if Atlanta United followed in Toronto’s footsteps given the Canadian team’s odd circumstance. Atlanta have their own problems, unique to them but easier to overcome than injuries.
The departure of Miguel Almiron to Newcastle and coach Tata Martino to the Mexican national team were big losses, but the additions of Gonzalo “Pity” Martinez and former Ajax coach Frank de Boer should have filled those gaps.
Unfortunately, like Toronto, Atlanta’s results haven’t turned around following the CCL exit on March 13.
Atlanta are 0-2-2 and sit in last place in the East.
Questions have arisen around De Boer, whose previous two managerial stints resulted in early exits. He lasted three months at Italian giants Inter Milan in 2016, and just five matches at Crystal Palace in the Premier League in 2017.
De Boer’s recent history is a cause for concern given his start to 2019, but he isn’t the only manager of a successful 2018 team to face adversity in 2019.
Atlanta’s opponent in the MLS Cup, the Portland Timbers, are in even worse form with one draw and three losses.
Giovani Savarese, coach of the Timbers, is working with the same lineup from his MLS Cup run last season, with just Liam Ridgewell and Alvas Powell leaving from the squad. Both players were ostensibly replaced (by Claude Dielna and Jorge Moreira), and weren’t even consistent first team starters. Ridgewell played just 13 regular season matches, but featured in all six playoff matches. Powell played in 24 regular season matches, but started just one playoff game.
Back in the east, the Supporters Shield winners, the New York Red Bulls, have started only marginally better than the two MLS Cup finalists.
After drawing the first match in Columbus with a lineup of mostly reserves, the Red Bulls beat the San Jose Earthquakes — last place in MLS — and then lost two in a row against the two worst teams in the east in 2018: Orlando City at home and Chicago Fire on the road.
The Red Bulls also lost their head coach, but back in 2018. After Jesse Marsch left and Chris Armas took over, the Red Bulls were 13-3-3 in 2018.
In this case, the coaching change improved the teams record from 9-3-4.
With his first full season in 2019, Armas has the chance to fully establish the tactics and philosophy that he wants to instill. That transition is off to a rocky start.
The third-place team in the East in 2018 faced a managerial change around the same time as their cross-town rivals. New York City FC have yet to win in 2019, with three draws and one loss.
After dropping a 2-0 lead in Orlando, NYCFC drew two straight home games, and most recently were blown out 4-0 in Toronto.
Like Atlanta and the Red Bulls, NYCFC lost a head coach, but unlike the Red Bulls, didn’t improve afterwards.
Under Patrick Vieira in the first half of 2018, NYC went 8-4-3, and ended 8-4-7 under the new coach Dome Torrent.
Four matches into the season, and four of the top teams in MLS are in poor form. The MLS Cup Champion, runner-up and Supporters Shield winner are all in the same situation.
The question is whether it is time to panic for these teams.
The Portland Timbers have the easiest answer to this question: no.
Last season, Portland began winless in the first five matches (0-2-3). It was at that point they went on a six-game win streak, and undefeated for 15 games with 10 wins.
Perhaps it’s just a northwestern thing, because Seattle started even worse, with 10 losses in the first 15 games.
Portland fans know what this squad is capable of, and improved results will likely come when the Timbers return to the renovated Providence Park on June 1. road matches are incredibly difficult for MLS teams.
Just last year, the introduction of Audi Field was enough for D.C. United to vault from the bottom of the East into a playoff spot.
Both New York teams are in a different realm of worry, however, but both have also dealt with spells as bad as the current one.
The Red Bulls, who like Atlanta had to deal with CCL early on, had a bad stretch in 2018, where they lost three times in four matches. This season they’ve lost two of four, but the two losses did come against two of the easier opponents in the conference, and the win against the worst team in MLS.
It’s slightly worrying for Red Bulls fans given the level of the opposition and the quality of play so far. The Red Bulls seem to have lost their previous identity of high press or possession. Until some tactical changes occur, Armas will be starting to feel the heat from Red Bull fans who have come to expect Supporters Shields at this point.
It’s the first sign of mortality for the regular season beast that is the Red Bulls. They’re still a dominant force, they just need to return to the intensity that brought them a record-setting year in 2018. It would be surprising to not see the Red Bulls figure things out.
New York City FC are in an even worse place. Currently in 11th place in the East, at least NYCFC have played the first place team in both conferences already.
The problem, however, is that Torrent has yet to reach the levels that Vieira set before him. NYCFC have yet to win a home game so far — by playing on that postage stamp sized sized field, NYCFC have a considerable home-field advantage and had the second best home record in 2018 after the Red Bulls.
Torrent has shown signs of trouble in just under a year at the helm.
Wins at home will come, but the play on the road was abysmal under Torrent. Most coaches in MLS never really figure out how to get results on the road (4-4-9 away from home last season; only Columbus, D.C. and Real Salt Lake were worse.) The bigger question for Torrent is if he will still be coach of NYCFC when that moment comes.
Atlanta might actually need to worry. The talent is undeniable on that team, but things are not meshing. Ezequiel Barco and Pity Martinez haven’t found their groove in MLS, and it’s understandable that those stars are unsettled.
De Boer is the biggest variable in Atlanta between 2018 and 2019, however. The loss of Almiron should have been negated by Pity’s unbelievable talent, or even Barco stepping up to the challenge.
De Boer’s short history at his past two clubs show that other organizations were unwilling to let him continue his experiment. He was the one constant of the failure from his past three teams.
In his defense, Inter Milan haven’t had a truly successful coach since Jose Mourinho left in 2010, and Crystal Palace weren’t suited to play de Boer’s attacking style.
But the fact de Boer was unwilling to change his managerial style at Palace, and was so horrifically bad at Inter has to be a certain indictment of his approach.
That horrendous run of form has now continued at Atlanta. Over his last nine league matches as manager — across three teams — de Boer is yet to win and his teams have scored just two goals (one each against Philadelphia and Cincinnati.)
De Boer started strong with a win in the first round of the CCL against Herediano, but the performance wasn’t convincing.
He went on to draw his first two home games, and against lesser opposition in the Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati.
Whether Darren Eales and Carlos Bocanegra are willing to give de Boer the chance to fully instill his philosophy is the biggest question in Atlanta. Chances are with de Boer gone and a respectable coach at the helm, things will turn around.
However, the Atlanta front office knows the risks that came with De Boer. If his grand scheme comes to fruition, Atlanta could reach new heights. Unfortunately, the chance to reach those heights came in the CCL, which De Boer blew. It will take another successful, title-winning season to earn that chance again.
Welcome to the real MLS, Atlanta United. Most fans live with these kind of worries on a constant basis. Success isn’t guaranteed just because a club is “well run.”
Barring an injury crisis like the one in Toronto last year, Atlanta should bounce back, with or without de Boer.
Enjoy Atlanta’s misery while it lasts, MLS fans. Because it won’t.
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