MLB Bets, Friday April 5 – Is Texas For Real?
By John Fazio
Good day and greetings from MLB Bets central. Today a number of games are on the radar after a very small juice gain yesterday.
On Thursday MLB bets was virtually even. Using 1 unit as the base bet and allowing for the lay and take, yesterday showed a unit gain of .04 with the season now standing at +14.81 units.
In general, MLB bets likes to ride the early season trends as most of the public tries to force last years results into the line. There are good and great teams from last year under-performing and the system uses this to garner value against teams that should not be favored.
That said, let’s see if MLB bets can produce a winning day. All times Eastern.
Chicago (+1.13) stifles Seattle, 2:10 pm
On the surface this seems wrong, very wrong. Seattle has opened the season 7-1 with a very impressive +17 run differential. The White Sox are 2-3, still looking like a team in search of an identity.
Seattle hurler Yusei Kikuchi pitched very well in 2 early season starts. He has combined for 10 innings and 3 earned runs in 1 home game and 1 neutral site affair. Reynaldo Lopez for Chicago got shelled his first time out in Kansas City.
However Lopez pitched very well at home last year, especially his last 3 starts completing 20 innings allowing 2 runs total. Kikuchi is untested in a hostile environment.
This is the home opener for the White Sox, and while Seattle has played 2 neutral site games, this will be their first true away game. MLB bets wants to try the home team expecting the change in venue will also be a change in fortune.
MLB Bets To Win – Giants Throttle The Rays
San Francisco (+1.12) outlasts Tampa Bay, 4:35 pm
In yet another game with a complete change of venue, the Rays play their first away game at the Giants home opener. MLB Bets expects a reversal of fortune just as in the White Sox game.
Tampa has started the season 5-2 sporting a +11 run differential. The Giants are 2-5 having played an away series with the Dodgers and are looking to turn things around today.
Tampa sends Tyler Glasnow to the mound. He has been good at home, but the Rays are 1-5 in his last 6 away starts. MLB Bets is not releasing any totals but there is an incredible number of trends pointing toward the under, including 7 of the last 8 going under in games where they played each-other.
The total is already reflecting this striking trend sitting at 7. Much has been made of the Rays relievers this year as they have been great. Time will tell if the change in venue makes a difference.
Minnesota (+1.39) powers by Philadelphia, 7:05 pm
The Phillies have a good team this year and they are playing well, with the only exception being their back-end starters and the bullpen. Today that could be a problem.
The Phillies starter, Nick Pivetta, pitched poorly in his first start while the Twins hurler, Jake Odorizzi, threw a strong quality start. MLB Bets predicts Minnesota will out-score the high-powered Philadelphia offense and continue their silent winning ways.
Betting the Twins has been very profitable – they have won 10 of 11 going back to last year thru the start of this season. A lot of the talk has been on Philly, and rightfully so, but in the meantime Minnesota has gone unnoticed except by those bettors cashing tickets.
Both teams are 4-1 to start this season, with Philly yet to lose at home and Minnesota yet to lose on the road. Philadelphia already has 71% of the public bets and at this low price it seems that percentage will hold thru game time.
Let’s see if MLB bets can pull off the upset call and give us a win. Go Twins.
MLB Bets To Win – Red Sox Roll Snake Eyes Against Diamondbacks
Arizona (+1.17) upsets Boston, 7:10 pm
The Boston tank job remains alive as they drop to 2-6 on the year. Even crazier, Boston now has a run differential of -19, by far the worst in all of baseball.
Meanwhile Arizona held its own in 7 road games, going 3-4. Boston has to contend with playing at another teams home opener again today without a day off in-between which is never easy. Eight games on the road and counting for Boston and it is taking its toll.
Rick Porcello goes for Boston. He (and the entire team) had a horrible time of it at Seattle throwing 2 2/3 innings giving up 9 runs, 4 earned. Zack Godley was not much better on the Arizona side, pitching 5 1/3 innings allowing 7 earned runs.
The only salvation for Godley is that Arizona is 4-1 in his last 4 home starts against a team playing poorly with a losing record. The public is going to be on Boston again as they look very inviting at this low juice.
The Red Sox have already garnered 65% of public bets and it could even rise from here. Still, MLB Bets sees this as another Boston game lost that they should have won.
Miami (+1.53) edges Atlanta, 7:20 pm
The Braves enter this game as the odds on favorite which could be optimistic given the way their starter Kevin Gausman has pitched. He has not had a quality start since August 1st of last year.
With no starts yet this year, searching spring training results finds he pitched poorly settling for an ERA above ten. Miami starter Pablo Lopez was not great in his first start of the season, but MLB Bets predicts this will be one of the few games the Marlins have a chance at scoring multiple runs.
Miami is slated to have a tough season but tonight they have their shot. We will see if their young players can come through.
MLB Bets To Win – Brewers Extend Cubs Woes
Milwaukee (-1.17) vanquishes Chicago, 8:10 pm
The Cubs along with the Red Sox have had a rough start to the season and MLB Bets does not see this changing tonight. Milwaukee is 6-1, Chicago is 1-4, and nothing suggests an about-face just yet.
What’s interesting here is the line opened Brewers -1.40 and quickly dropped into the teens. At -1.40, MLB Bets would have left the game alone, but at -1.16 the Brewers definitely become a play.
Jose Quintana starts for the Cubs going 4 innings allowing 2 runs last time out. The Brewers starter, Brandon Woodruff, went 5 innings allowing 2 runs.
With the pitching match-up fairly close, the better team right now is Milwaukee and they are playing at home. Those fans in Milwaukee are crazy for their team. It seems there is enough of an advantage to make the Brewers a play.
Oakland (+1.62) spoils Houston’s Home Opener, 8:10 pm
The A’s played Houston competitively last year and were no push-over in Houston. Even though this is the first road game for Oakland and also is the home opener for the Astros, MLB Bets says the line is too high for the talent on the field.
Frankie Montas takes the mound for the A’s after pitching well in his first start. He threw 6 innings allowing 1 run. Collin McHugh pitched well for Houston also, throwing 5 innings giving up 2 runs. The home/away factor should even out the pitchers stats here.
That said, Oakland continues to out-perform team salary expectations and should give Houston fits tonight. The Sabermetric system is more complicated than openly presented and gives Billy Beane the opportunity to excel year after year based on salaries paid to players. He turned Oakland into a contender and puts a quality low-cost team on the field almost every year.
MLB Bets To Win – Rangers Roll Over Angels
Texas (+1.11) hammers Los Angeles, 10:07 pm
The surprising Texas Rangers, after dropping their home opener 12-4 to the Cubs and looking as everyone had predicted, have gone 5-1 since that game and all of a sudden looks like a contending team. Maybe that should be said again – a contending team.
Their everyday line-up is filled with talented mainly experienced players and their starting rotation has the possibility of being good enough. However that is the sticking point tonight for both sides.
Lance Lynn goes for Texas after getting shelled in his first start. In 5 2/3 innings he gave up 7 earned runs but the Rangers overcame the deficit and won the game 11-10.
Felix Pena takes the mound for the Angels after posting a disastrous performance himself. He pitched 3 2/3 innings allowing 4 earned runs on route to a 4-2 loss.
The Angels were blasted by Texas last night in their home opener and have to be mentally reeling starting the season now at 1-6. Texas quickly recovered from that opening day loss and now they just keep pounding the ball. MLB Bets wants to ride this wave and back Texas tonight.
MLB Bets Recap For Friday April 5th:
White Sox +1.13
San Francisco +1.12
Minnesota +1.39
Arizona +1.17
Miami +1.53
Oakland +1.62
Texas +1.11
This crazy start to the season has mainly treated us well – stay strong and enjoy every day.
Next. DraftKings MLB Early Picks April 5: GlasNOW or never!. dark