FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: April 23rd Early Only and Main Slate
By Matt Rogers
We’re BACK with another FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups! We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate. This post is focused on the Early Only and Main slates for April 23rd 2019.
For the first month of baseball, we’ve mostly seen split slates. We’ve had a couple of fairly normal full Main slates in the last week, but we typically see clean split slates on Wednesdays and Saturdays. Tuesday’s, however, often present awkward FanDuel MLB slate options, and today isn’t an exception.
The only way you get Matthew Boyd vs. Chris Sale in the Tigers and Red Sox match-up at Fenway, is if you play the All-Day FanDuel MLB slate. It’s an exciting match-up, but that’s not a slate I want to consider, especially with so many question marks by the 1pm ET lock.
However, there’s an intriguing ‘Early Only’ slate starting at 6:10pm ET, which includes four hot starting pitchers and some offensive lineups starting to wake up to the new season. That slate is followed by a huge and robust Main Slate, shortly after 7pm ET. So, we’re going to focus on each of those slates, and offer example lineups base on our top plays for pitching and offensive stacks.
Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @MattyMcMatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.
Weather Note: The only chance for precipitation, across the MLB nation, is in Pittsburgh, PA on Tuesday evening. But, the odds are below 50%, and if we do see any rain it’s expected to be fairly light. So, it’s very unlikely weather will cause delays, and especially unlikely of any postponements, on Tuesday.
There are some wind factors, with 10+ mph winds in Cincinnati, Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland. That could push the ball a bit to, or over, the fence in each ballpark.
With weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…
FanDuel MLB: Top Pitching – Early Only
With games starting at 6:10pm and 6:40pm, we only have four teams, two games, and therefore four starting pitchers to consider for the Early Only slate on Tuesday. As you could imagine, that can make this slate either very easy or very hard, as you have two pitchers who likely lead you to a big pay-out, or two pitchers who lead you to crash and burn.
To make matters a little more challenging, all four pitchers have an xFIP of between 3.09 and 3.45, which basically means all four SP’s are off to a good start to the season. Even more impressive, the K-rates are between 26.4% and 36.3%. So, quite frankly, all four pitchers are good fantasy baseball plays until this point.
But, of that four, I like Pablo Lopez ($6,600) the least, although that makes for a great GPP flier. He has a 3.45 xFIP and fairly high 26.4% K-rate, but he’s also facing likely the best pitcher in this slate and an Indians lineup who’s struggled to start this season but is gradually getting more dangerous as they get healthy.
So, if I’m going to grab a GPP play, Sonny Gray ($8,500) seems like the safer risk against the up-and-down Braves offense. Gray’s 3.09 xFIP is the best of this slate, he has a very good 0.93 WHIP, a 29.0% K-rate, and just piled up 40 FanDuel MLB points in Los Angeles against a good Dodgers offense, last week.
Kevin Gausman ($9,700) is a similar play to Gray, but he’s more expensive because he has a significantly better match up, facing a struggling Reds offense. I’d like Gausman, but I love what Carlos Carrasco ($10,800) did in his last start and that’s why I’m all over Carrasco for this slate.
He’s been topsy-turvy to start this season, fanning 12 in outings against the Blue Jays and Mariners mixed in with two dreadful low-K and six earned runs outings against the Royals and Twins.
But, given Carrasco career trend, it’s likely Carlos continues to move toward the better side of his pitching metrics, and mows down a ton of Marlins on Tuesday evening. Carlos has a 36.3% K-rate, due mostly to the 24 K’s in just two starts over 12 innings, and is facing a Marlins offense with a 26.8K strikeout rate, the worst in baseball.
So it’s not only likely that Carrasco continues to stay hot on the mound Tuesday, but somewhere between 50 and 70 FanDuel MLB points is reasonable, with double-digit strikeouts, a low earned run number, a quality start, and likely the win as well. I’m willing to pay over $10K for those points, and we can build a decent offense around that pitching.
FanDuel MLB: Top Pitching – Main Slate
We started the season, in the first week, focused on grabbing the top arms for many of the slates. However, a trend of cheaper value developed over the first part of April, and I gravitated my focus toward the better values.
That strategy doesn’t always work out, especially when the best arms in baseball are at the top of their game. At some point this Spring or early Summer we’ll likely start to see that trend emerge. In fact, we already talked about how we were willing to pay up for Carrasco in the Early Only slate.
With that in mind, I was surprised by how far down the salary list I ended up moving for the Main slate, when it came to starting pitchers. Kenta Maeda ($8,700) and Patrick Corbin ($8,400) are certainly off to great starts this season, and at least Maeda may be a solid play for this Main slate.
But, I don’t like the match-up Kenta has in Chicago, against a good Cubs offense, and Corbin’s lower velocity, and dependence on off-speed pitching, may be a huge problem for him at Coors Field. For those reasons, I continued searching for better options.
We did like Frankie Montas ($8,400) a few weeks ago, and the Rangers have a high 25.3% K-rate, 10th highest in baseball. So again, there’s another solid play there. But the Rangers offense is a dangerous target, with a .335 wOBA (tied with the Brewers for 11th best in baseball). Also, Frankie’s K-rate and xFIP are only mediocre.
In fact, this same theme seems to constantly play out as you scan down the list of starting pitchers by salary. At least, that theme existed until I landed on Jeff Samardzija ($7,200). Over the last two seasons, Shark was one of my sneaky value plays, whenever his strong arm faced a high K-rate team.
Over time, Jeff has become less reliable, but he appears to be developing that potential again. In his last two starts, against the Nationals and Rockies, both solid offensive teams, Samardzija had seven strikeouts in each game.
The Shark only has one quality start this season, against the Rockies, but he’s still maintained a low 1.19 WHIP and 2.91 ERA over four starts. He also has nearly one strikeout per inning, and a decent 23.0% K-rate.
Samardzija isn’t even in the top ten for highest K-rates starting this slate, he’s 11th, but that’s one of the reasons I love this play…he’s falling off FanDuel MLB radars. At the same time, Jeff faces a Blue Jays offense with a 27.2% K-rate, now beating out the Indians for the highest in baseball.
If Samardzija can hold off for a quality start and win, he could have 50 to 60 points on a dirt-cheap $7.2K salary. And I think the odds of that happening are fairly high for Tuesday, given the match-up.
There are plenty of other pitchers you could consider in this clouded bunch of mediocre starting pitchers, but The Shark is likely not only the best value, but the best overall starting pitcher option for MLB DFS on Tuesday.
FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Early Only
Because the starting pitching is so solid for the Early Only slate, it’s frankly difficult to find a fantastic offensive lineup to get excited about for this slate as well. But, I know for a fact the Reds and Marlins are two of the worst offenses in baseball right now.
Currently, the Marlins have a .266 wOBA and Reds a .271 wOBA, which is only behind the Giants .260 for the worst in the league. So, factoring in the starting pitching match-ups, we know stacking either of those offenses is frankly…stupid.
That unfortunately makes the Braves and Indians chalky, and they’re the more expensive bunch while we’re playing the most expensive pitcher. So, this is where the slate becomes tricky.
Before I dive through the Braves and Tribe options, I’m probably going to slip a sleeper into my lineup to try and differentiate compared to the large population of players. One flier I’m keeping an eye on for Tuesday is if Joey Votto ($3,100) is in the Reds lineup.
Yes, I don’t love the Reds match-up and Votto is off to a slow start, but he’s showed some signs of heating up before getting some rest due to ‘back tightness.’ I like Joey’s lefty vs. righty match-up on Tuesday, I think they’ll plug him back into the top of the lineup, and he likely gets us some points, with the potential for a home run against Gausman.
From there, I’m looking for some of the hotter bats lately from the Braves and Indians. I may need to find a cheap play from one of the lineups, depending on how they shake out, but I’m looking at snagging a value play like Greg Allen ($2,100) for this slate.
Also, while Jose Ramirez ($3,000) is off to a slow start too, with two double-digit FanDuel MLB point games, each well over 20 points, in his last six, Ramirez may begin to bounce back this week. He’s affordable, as are Jake Bauers ($2,800), Jason Kipnis ($3,200), Brian McCann ($3,000), and Dansby Swanson ($3,300) who have all been productive fantasy baseball players so far this season.
FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Main Slate
With The Shark plugged into our pitching slot, while only spending $7.2K on the position, we have plenty of salary to use for the offensive side of our lineup. That is fortunate, because many of my favorite stacks on Tuesday night also happen to be quite expensive.
First off, let’s start at Coors Field. We mentioned how Corbin is a risky play, but I don’t like how well he’s pitching this season to immediately jump to the Rockies offense without much data to support the move.
FanDuel seems to think Chad Bettis will start for the Rockies on Tuesday, although they hadn’t announced a starter as of the time I wrote this post. Regardless, I know Marquez is slated for Wednesday afternoon, so it’s likely the solid Nationals bats will get a pitcher they can pile runs on over the course of the game.
The Nats had five runs last night, including Brian Dozier‘s ($3,400) third home run in four games. Regardless of the arm on the mound tonight, Dozier is a great MLB DFS player to use when he’s hot, and he happens to be hot while in Coors Field for this slate.
I’m also considering Ryan Zimmerman‘s ($3,600) bat, which has been heating up over the last week as well, including a two-home run game over the weekend in Miami. Another bat I’m expecting to potentially wake up on Tuesday is lefty Juan Soto ($4,300), especially if the Rockies have a RHP starting on the mound.
I’m going to keep my eye out for Anthony Rendon ($4,600) in case he’s back in the lineup after getting beaned over the weekend. But if he’s not, fortunately Yoan Moncada ($4,200) and the White Sox have a fantastic match up against Andrew Cashner and the Orioles.
Moncada and Tim Anderson ($4,400) may seem like expensive MLB DFS plays, but they’re both crushing the baseball with a ton of confidence right now, we have a cheap pitching play, there are affordable Nats to stack, and some other White Sox like Yonder Alonso ($2,800) and Ryan Cordell ($3,000) could give us additional double-digit point plays without spending too much salary.
FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineups for April 23rd 2019
The Early Only slate has four starting pitchers and four offensive units to focus on. Many of my picks are likely chalky, with offensive focus on the Braves and Indians but I’m not sure many FanDuel MLB players are going to pay up for Carrasco.
That would be great, because we’re expecting a big outing from Carlos, and I think we still have plenty of points from the reasonably priced Braves and Tribe players we’re targeting. We’re also going to take a flier on Votto, assuming he makes it back into the lineup on Tuesday evening.
For the Main slate, we dug through the long list of mediocre pitching plays and ultimately landed on The Shark, who’s oddly very affordable against the highest K-rate offense in baseball. That could get us a high 50 to 60 point play while also leaving plenty of salary on the table.
Having tons of salary to play with when you have the Nats solid offense in Coors Field is ideal. We also have several red-hot White Sox bats stacked in our lineup as well. But, we’re likely going to mix in a few one-off plays to make the lineup affordable, and to differentiate.
Two plays I like as one-off plays for the Main slate are Dexter Fowler ($2,700), who’s been quietly and consistently productive for the Cardinals over the last two weeks, and Gregory Polanco ($2,900).
Polanco is a bit of a risk, as he’s just coming off he DL for the Pirates and hasn’t played a gain yet this season, but that could also lower his ownership %, and we know Polanco is capable of big fantasy baseball results.
With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineups for the Early Only and Main FanDuel MLB slates for Tuesday, April 23rd 2019:
Early Only Main
P Carlos Carrasco ($10,800) Jeff Samardzija ($7,200)
C/1B Brian McCann ($3,000) Yonder Alonso ($2,800)
2B Jason Kipnis ($3,200) Brian Dozier ($3,400)
3B Jose Ramirez ($3,000) Yoan Moncada ($4,200)
SS Dansby Swanson ($3,300) Tim Anderson ($4,400)
OF Jake Bauers ($2,800) Ryan Cordell ($3,000)
OF Nick Markakis ($3,600) Juan Soto ($4,300)
OF Greg Allen ($2,100) Dexter Fowler ($2,700)
UTIL Joey Votto ($3,100) Gregory Polanco ($2,900)
Remaining Salary: $0 Remaining Salary: $100
Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel MLB lineups. We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your DFS news and analysis across MLB, NFL, PGA, and NASCAR this summer!