Late DraftKings MLB Picks April 28: German is gold in S.F.

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – APRIL 27: David Bote #13 of the Chicago Cubs hits a three run home run off of Zack Godley #52 of the Arizona Diamondbacks during the third inning at Chase Field on April 27, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /

Late DraftKings MLB Picks April 28: German is gold in S.F.

I usually don’t do the late DraftKings MLB write ups on Sunday because there are only four games. Today I will make an exception since there are better pitchers here than on the early slate. Four games doesn’t mean lack of talent, but it does mean we have to get creative with our builds.

DraftKings MLB Late Pitcher Plays:

Top Tier:

Rich Hill ($9,600): The Pirates are a ghastly 2-20 against Hill with three strikeouts. The Pirates are like a 12 year old boy against Hill. They’ve never got past first base, but they’ll tell you that they’ve seen third. There is risk since this is Hill’s first 2019 appearance, but there is clear potential here. For the price though, I would rather go with the sure thing in German.

Domingo German ($9,200): German has been dominant this year, going 4-1 with a 1.75 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts in 25.2 innings over four starts and one relief appearance. The Giants have had problems hitting, well, everything this year. Anything round…..they have no chance. Unfortunately for them, baseballs are round, and the Yankees have one of the best guys at throwing them this year to put on that little hill out there against the Giants. Advantage: German.

Middle Tier:

Erik Swanson ($8,100): Swanson has had a bit of an issue with homers, but considering he doensn’t allow a lot of base runners, they haven’t burned him too badly. Swanson is more a victim of poor defense than anything else. Still, this Texas team has good power, and that could mean an early shower for a guys that’s giving up long balls. I see the upside here, but I think we can do better for this price.

Trevor Williams ($7,300): The Pirates got a strong start last night, but Clint Hurdle left Musgrove in one batter two long (doesn’t he read the BvP stats? Joc kills Musgrove!). We could see another similar outing here. Williams has not pitched well against the Dodgers in his career, but those two starts came before Williams started clicking after the break last year. Williams wont get enough strikeouts to save his bacon. That’s why he’s cheap. However, he’s a good bet for 15-18 DraftKings points here, even against the Dodgers.

Bargain Pitchers:

Dereck Rodriguez ($6,900): Rodriguez really hasn’t had a bad start yet. All of his peripheral numbers are solid as well. Him at this price is a bargain. The Yankees offense is a shell of its full strength self, but they have shown a few times that they still have some guys that can hit. I like Rodriguez here. He should be able to land around 18-20 DraftKings points. I’ll take that for this kind of bargain. Yes, even in lineups in which I use German.

Lance Lynn ($6,500): We have seen some bad pitchers find their way into my value tier, and Lynn is no exception. However, if you take away Bruce’s stats, the Mariners are just 8-39 with no homers and two RBI with 11 strikeouts against Lynn. If he just intentionally walks Bruce three times, Lynn could have a pretty good game here. There is some potential here.

My picks: German, Rodriguez

ATLANTA, GA – APRIL 18: Christian Walker #53 of the Arizona Diamondbacks celebrates with Adam Jones #10 after hitting a two run home run in the seventh inning of an MLB game against the Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park on April 18, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Late Notes:

Dereck Rodriguez really isn’t worth picking on. His splits aren’t glaring. He doesn’t give up a ton of fly balls or hard contact. I just don’t really see a reason to pay top dollar for Yankees bats. I would still use a reasonably priced Brett Gardner or Gleyber Torres, but again, nothing really stands out here.

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I want zero part of this Giants offense. I’m not sure you could pay me to use one of them right now. That said, Brandon Crawford might actually still have a pulse and he is really, really cheap if you need salary relief.

You could probably stack Diamondbacks against Jose Quintana today. They are hitting .300 against lefties a month into the season, and they are hitting .344 against Quintana in 64 career at bats. Adam Jones has both the homers against Jose, so lock and load! I also like Christian Walker and Nick Ahmed quite a bit here.

You better stack the other side of this too. The Cubs absolutely abused Luke Weaver when he was a Cardinal. They are hitting .451 against him in 82 at bats with four homers and a staggering 21 runs. Javy Baez did a bulk of the damage, going 8-14(.571) with two homers and six RBI. Rizzo and Bryant have the other homers. Zobrist, Jason Heyward, and Schwarber are all hitting .375 or better against Weaver.

Cody Bellinger and Chris Taylor have both homered off of Trevor Williams. Joc Pederson is a perfect 2-2 with two RBI. Still, two of these three is plenty enough exposure here. Williams likely isn’t going to get pounded. The pounding is going to happen east of here.

If the Pirates manage to survive five innings of Hill, they still have to deal with four innings of that bullpen. It doesn’t look good for Pittsburgh bats again today. Any of them.

Jay Bruce is Lance Lynn’s kryptonite. Bruce is 15-36(.417) with all three homers against Lynn and 11 of the 13 RBI. Dee Gordon and any other lefty Seattle throws out there is worth a look as well.

I like Swanson, but this Texas offense can be pretty lethal. Joey Gallo and Odor look good here. So does Asdrubal Cabrera if he is able to return to the lineup. However, Swanson doesn’t allow much of anything besides homers, so don’t get too much exposure.

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