MLB Bets – Wednesday May 1 – Will Detroit Sweep Philadelphia?
By John Fazio
Good day from MLB Bets. A crazy day yesterday with the final total ending up almost exactly even.
Using 1 unit as a base and allowing for the lay and take, Tuesday was flat keeping the season total at plus 24.53 units. Plays in the article went 3-1 with a rainout and 2 twitter plays were losers.
All plays valid regardless of pitching changes. All times Eastern.
Texas (+1.19) pounds Pittsburgh, 2:05 pm
The Rangers were cruising to a win yesterday until manager Chris Woodward decided to put the worst closer in baseball into the game – again – and got the same result. A multi-run inning for the opposition which in this case tied the game.
It could have been worse had 1 Pirate hitter not been called out on a pitch way out of the strike zone and another, Josh Bell who tied the game with a double, making a base-running mistake and running into an out.
In any case the Pirates went on to win in extra innings. I live 10 minutes away from the ballpark in Arlington and I know Texas better than any other team. That closer Jose Leclerc needs to get some more work in Triple A before pitching any more up here. In my opinion it was a ridiculous decision to put him in the game. Anyway, moving on, today the Rangers should put some runs on the board.
Jameson Taillon gets the call for Pittsburgh and he has mostly struggled on the road. Pitching at Texas most likely will make that problem worse.
Shelby Miller takes the hill for Texas posting an unimpressive ERA of 7.52 on the season. MLB Bets is predicting the Rangers will be able to out-slug the Pirates as their line-up is more conducive to winning these kinds of games.
Being able to get the Rangers as a dog at home has been a winner so far this year and it’s likely the Texas manager will feel enough pressure not to give another game away. In any case, MLB Bets is sticking with Texas again on Wednesday.
MLB Bets To Win – Orioles Win Again? Well, Yes
Baltimore (+1.41) brushes Chicago aside, 4:10 pm – half the wager on 1st 5 innings +1/2
This is the same advisory as yesterday before this game was rained out.
In Cashners’ last 5 starts, he is personally 4-0 and the team has won all of them. The Orioles have provided him with runs when he’s needed them and it’s been a completely different feel when he is on the mound. This Oriole team actually looks energized and confident.
The White Sox send out Ivan Nova. Super Nova has either been great or terrible in his starts, with three bad ones and two good ones. The lone home start was a disaster.
Amazingly the road record for Baltimore and the home record for Chicago are similar. And while Chicago has been playing better lately than the Orioles, with Cashner on the mound you can throw that out the window.
We’ve already mentioned the orioles are 5-0 in Cashners’ last 5 starts. Conversely, Chicago in 0-5 in Novas’ last 5 starts. Don’t know if this means a lot but the system threw it out there – umpire David Rackley is scheduled to call balls and strikes Tuesday – the road team is 6-1 the last 7 times he has been behind home plate in Chicago.
There is enough evidence to warrant a play on Baltimore. We will be backing the Birds.
Detroit (+1.95) surprises Philadelphia again, 7:05 pm
At first glance it is very tempting to write off the Tigers chances for any of these games in this series. But when the large dog wins game 1 and has a better pitcher on the hill for game 2, we need to take a second look.
The Tigers out-played the Phillies on Tuesday, out-hitting them 7-4 and out-scoring them 3-1. Here on Wednesday Detroit has a good chance of winning again as a large underdog.
Daniel Norris goes for Detroit, and while his ERA is 3.93 it is better than his counterpart Aaron Nola who checks in with a 5.68 ERA. Once a team wins where they are not supposed to, and it’s not by a fluke, the mindset changes for both teams.
MLB Bets is saying the odds are way too high on the favorite. This game is closer to a pick. After all, Philadelphia is 1-4 in Nolas’ last 5 starts.
MLB Bets To Win – Cardinals Fly High As Big Road Underdogs
St Louis (+1.50) stymies Washington, 7:05 pm
The Nationals hope Max Scherzer has gotten back on track. Miles Mikolas for St Louis has about the same ERA as Mad Max.
So if the pitching match-up really is about equal, then St Louis is a great bargain at any plus odds let alone +1.50. Being on the road will not hurt the Cards.
St Louis has won 8/9 overall and are 8-1 against a right-handed starting pitcher. They also are 13-3 in Mikolas’ away starts including 8-0 against a sub .500 team.
Meanwhile Washington is 1-5 the last 6 games Scherzer has started. This just isn’t a great spot for Washington to be a high favorite. MLB bets will be playing the Cardinals.
Cincinnati (+1.77) rocks the Mets, 7:10 pm
New York sends Jacob deGrom to the mound as a prohibitive favorite. His ERA is 9.69 over his last 3 starts so what gives?
In an even more exaggerated sense as the Washington game, the Mets are nearly a 2-1 favorite while the starting pitchers dramatically favor the Reds.
Anthony DeSclafani starts for Cincinnati. Over his last 2 starts, both on the road, he’s thrown 12 innings allowing only 1 earned run. With Jacob deGrom, over his last 3 starts, 2 of which have been at home, he pitched 13 innings allowing 14 runs.
MLB Bets believes this is a huge overlay and the dog is the value. While Cincinnati is 6-1 against the NL East, the Mets are 1-4 in Jacobs’ last 5 home starts and also in his last 5 starts against the AL Central.
MLB Bets To Win – Padres Knock Off Atlanta
San Diego (+1.45) too much for the Braves, 7:20 pm
The Padres are playing too good ball to ignore. The starters have a distinct advantage toward San Diego as well.
Matt Strahm is pitching better than Max Fried right now. Strahm is getting consistent – over his last 3 starts he’s posted a 1.42 ERA while Fried checks in at 4.08. The home field is not enough to overcome this difference.
San Diego is 7-1 versus a left-handed starter. Also Jerry Layne will be umpiring behind home plate and for whatever reason he is known for road teams winning.
MLB Bets Recap For Wednesday May 1st:
Texas +1.19
Baltimore half the wager on 1st 5 innings +1/2 and half on the game +1.41
Detroit +1.95
St Louis +1.50
Cincinnati +1.77
San Diego +1.45
MLB Bets is providing 6 hopefully quality underdogs with legitimate chances of winning their games. Again, please be careful – as with Texas last night, anything can happen and things can break badly at certain times.
That said, the system has treated us well so far. Here’s hoping for a winning day.
Next. Arena Football League DFS Slate Breakdown – Week 2. dark