MLB Bets – Friday May 3 – Will Chicago Beat Boston And Sale?

Good winning day from MLB Bets.  Do the Orioles stand a chance against Tampa?  Can Arizona pound out runs at Coors Field?

Using 1 unit as the base and allowing for the lay and take, MLB Bets is now up 25.63 units on the season after a good day on Thursday saw the system gain almost 2 full units.  Plus 1.83 was the exact total.

Here we go for Friday.  All games valid regardless of pitching changes.  All times Eastern.

Baltimore  (+1.85)  over Tampa Bay, 7:05 pm
The Rays have a combined differential in runs scored vs given up of +104 compared to Baltimore.  Yet in this game the pitching and team statistics favor the Birds.

Sound unbelievable?  It does to me too, but let’s look at what MLB Bets sees here.

Tyler Glasnow goes for the Rays and he has been great overall on the season posting a 1.75 ERA.  However in his last 3 starts that ERA is 2.84 – still good but worse than his counterpart Dan Straily who in his last 3 starts has an ERA of 2.57.

Glasnow pitched at home against Baltimore less than 3 weeks ago.  He got the win and pitched well but not great, tossing 7 innings allowing 7 hits and 2 runs.  He only struck out 3 batters which is a season low for him.

Straily did not pitch in that April series with the Rays, but he is coming off a start at Minnesota throwing 4 innings giving up no earned runs.  The Twins are a top echelon scoring team.

His pitch count per inning is rather high as a rule, and Baltimore is monitoring his pitch count so he normally lasts no longer than 5 innings.  But most of those outings are good, and as pointed out he has a lower ERA recently than Glasnow.

And get this – as bad as the Birds were last year, going back to 2018, Baltimore has won the last 4 out of 5 contests at home in Oriole Park at Camden Yards against Tampa Bay.  All this adds up to what would appear to be a crazy prediction on Baltimore, yet that’s what the system is saying.

MLB Bets To Win – Marlins sink the Braves

Miami  (+1.35)  topples Atlanta, 7:10 pm
Atlanta has the better overall record.  But both teams have the same record in the last 10 games plus Miami is at home with a positive pitcher formation.

Those are the two ways of analyzing this game and MLB Bets usually likes the more recent trends.  This game is no exception.

Kevin Gausman takes the ball for the Braves posting a season long ERA of 4.80 but a recent 3 game sample of 6.23.  Narrowing it down even farther to his last 2 tries on the hill, he has thrown 10 innings allowing 10 earned runs.

Jose Urena for Miami is the polar opposite, showing a 5.08 season ERA but a recent ERA of 2.25.  In his last 3 starts he’s tossed 20 innings giving up 5 earned runs.  Urena is improving greatly while Gausman is sinking fast.

Both these teams are 4-6 in their last 10 games, but the Braves are now 1-4 versus a right-hander.  MLB Bets will be on Miami in this opening game of their 3 game weekend series hoping Urena tosses his 4th quality start in a row.

Miami does not have really any positive trends to point to and say hey – that looks really good.  Except of course the aforementioned pitching performance of Urena which has been very good and getting even better.

But this team is on the verge of starting something positive and to do that they have to win in the positive pitcher formation they have in front of them tonight.  Let’s see if MLB Bets is right and they can do it.

MLB Bets To Win – Chicago Can Surprise In This Spot

White Sox  (+1.77)  derail Boston, 8:10 pm
Chicago is still the better team as the standings would show it.  They’re getting huge dog odds for being at home with a better pitcher going.  An exciting walk-off three run home run yesterday won’t hurt their moral either.

The Red Sox hefty favorite status is more reputation than fact at least for now.  Chris Sale did have a quality start last time out but is far from proven this season and Boston still lost that game.  Boston is now 0-6 in Sale’s starts.

I cannot think of any pitcher today in any circumstance that has yet to post a win for his team let alone himself and yet still commands an almost 2-1 favorite line.  It’s really bizarre. It’s true if Sale has turned the corner he could be unhittable as he has been in prior years.  But he hasn’t won a game yet.  It is still all conjecture.

On top of that, as of this writing, Boston is getting 70% of all bets.  The public is piling on with just the idea of winning hoping Sale and Boston will dominate.  This is not a mock or a jab at anyone believing this way – they could easily be right on target tonight and blow us out of the water.  All MLB Bets does is extrapolate current conditions and trends coming up with its predictions.

White Sox hurler Reynaldo Lopez on the other hand has been great his last 2 home starts, pitching 12 innings allowing 1 earned run total.  Albeit it was against Detroit and Kansas City – but KC has scored more runs than Boston so far.  Who would have guessed that when the season began.

MLB Bets To Win – Royals Defy All Logic

Kansas City  (+1.39)  somehow upends Detroit, 7:10 pm
The Tigers swept a 3 game series at home in early April and now these 2 teams find themselves in the exact same scenario.  Matthew Boyd for Detroit has been pitching great.

Okay so why the heck would MLB Bets churn out a play on Kansas City?  Maybe it just feels bad for the books?

No, not that.  This is however a marginal play due to the line.  It is an official play in our rotation as MLB Bets has already taken +1.39, but it would fall to neutral if the plus dropped below 1.30.  Even still, let’s look at what’s going on here.

As stated above, the Tigers swept a 3 game home series from the Royals at the beginning of the season and today have a hot pitcher going.  Boyd has produced 5 quality starts in a row although he did not face the Royals in that earlier series.

Jorge Lopez for Kansas City conversely has had 3 bad starts in a row.  In his last start, a home game against the Angels, he didn’t last 4 innings giving up 6 hits and 4 runs while striking out 2 and walking three.

Here’s more – Lopez is now 0-4 in road starts.  Kansas City is 0-4 overall in starts by Lopez against the American League Central Division.

Detroit is now 4-0 when Boyd starts at home against a sub .500 team.  There’s more but why continue.

If this seems like an odd set of circumstances for the system to make the Royals a play, you are right.  It is an oddity that it unexplainable at least by me.

However in the MLB Bets network whenever ALL the stars line up together, when every trend points only one way, for whatever reason the opposite usually happens.  And it happens often enough as a percentage of tries to make it a play to put money down.

Do as you will with the game – it’s certainly understandable to abstain or even fade this – but it is an official play from MLB Bets at +1.30 or better.

MLB Bets To Win – Diamondbacks Having Fun At Coors

Arizona  (-1.10)  too much for Colorado, 8:40 pm
Both these teams are playing better as of late.  Arizona, better by a small margin, is made bigger by a preferred starting pitcher.

Robbie Ray goes for Arizona posting a 4.18 season ERA.  He’s had consistent but moderate performances with some better, some worse.

The difference here is with Tyler Anderson for the Rockies.  He has had 4 very bad starts in a row and, just as importantly, Arizona is a team that can take advantage of mediocre let alone bad pitching.

Over his last 4 starts, 2 at home and 2 away, he’s tossed 17 innings allowing 21 runs, all earned.  Arizona is a team that can out-slug their opponents.  They have scored more runs than the Rockies, are in good form winning 7 out of the last 10 games, and are 11-6 on the road.

MLB Bets is close to a play on the dog in the late game, Los Angeles at San Diego.  If a play emerges it will be posted on twitter.

MLB Bets Recap For Friday May 3rd:

Baltimore  +1.85
Miami   +1.35
White Sox  +1.77
Kansas City  +1.39
Arizona  -1.10

The Dodger/Padre game is interesting in that Clayton Kershaw has been great for LAD posting a 2.25 ERA in his 3 starts with Los Angeles winning all three.  But for some reason the line has come down, way down, from the opener of -1.85 to -1.62 even with 68% of the bets being placed on the favorite.

MLB Bets needs more line information to formulate if there is a play here.  It will know sometime Friday afternoon.

Best of luck and continued success from MLB Bets