MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Monday, 5/6 – Aces Wild!

MLB DFS Pitching: Monday, 5/6

Welcome back to the Monday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."

We have a 9-game slate on tap tonight, and there a TON of high-end arms on this slate that I’m interested in using.  I’m going to mix up my format completely today and try something entirely different by comparing two similarly priced pitchers and then giving you my recommendation as to which one I like better. It’s all going to be about making tough decisions today!  I’ll still make sure to include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end, don’t worry!

Let’s start off by looking at the pitcher vs. pitcher matchups. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits. Vegas lines always move during the day and we should pay attention to any sharp line movement or reverse line movement, but for now, it’s a good starting point.

Hector Velazquez vs. John Means

Martin Perez vs. Marcus Stroman (-120)

Merrill Kelly vs. Blake Snell (-150)

Max Scherzer (-115) vs. Jhoulys Chacin

Sandy Alcantara vs. Cole Hamels (-250)

Vince Velazquez vs. Miles Mikolas (-135)

Jakob Junis vs. Gerrit Cole (-290)

Kevin Gausman vs. Walker Buehler (-150)

Jacob DeGrom (-115) vs. Chris Paddack

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Aces

Gerrit Cole (11.5k FD, 10.7k DK) vs. Kansas City

Cole is in excellent form, having struck out 21 over his last 14 innings against two solid opponents in Cleveland and Minnesota. He’s had only one poor start all season, his 4/20 outing against Texas in which he gave up 8 runs in only four and third innings.

Kansas City is a dangerous offense, but they’ve been dominated by good pitching this year several times. Even on the road, I think Cole brings some safety to the table today as he should be able to handle this Royals lineup and there are enough strikeouts to be had to give him a solid floor.  His 13.5 K/9 so far this season is damn impressive.

Jacob DeGrom (11.1k FD, 10.2k DK) @ San Diego

DeGrom was scuffling for a few weeks after returning from a short stint on the disabled list but returned to form in his last start, pitching seven shutout innings against the Reds with six strikeouts.  Today he faces the Padres, a team that has almost all of its power from the right-hand side of the plate (besides Hosmer) and whiffs 27% of the time vs. RHP. I like DeGrom to keep it rolling against the Pads, and he gets the benefit of facing the pitcher a few times, too.

ADVANTAGE: DEGROM – Better matchup, more groundballs, no DH, cheaper, and more safety

MLB DFS Pitching: Top Tier GPP Pivots

Max Scherzer (10.5k FD, 10k DK) @ Milwaukee

Mad Max hasn’t been as sharp as we’re used to seeing from him this year. He’s been the most dominant pitcher in the league for some time, but this year he’s sporting an ERA over 4 and a record of 1-4. However, the strikeouts are still there for Max as he’s had at least 7 in every start and as many as 10 once.

Max’s Achilles heel for some time now has been home runs. He’s a fly ball pitcher so when hitters get a fastball or slider where they can handle it, they hit it a long way. That is a dangerous situation tonight as he faces a Milwaukee team with some good lefty power bats in Miller Park, a stadium known for being home run friendly. It’s a big-time boom/bust spot for Scherzer and I’d reserve him for GPPs only.

Blake Snell (9.9k FD, 9.7k DK) vs. Arizona

Snell was greeted rudely by the Royals not once, but twice after returning from injury. He was lights out for his first three starts and appeared like he was picking up right where he left off last season before the KC buzzsaw cut him down in his last two outings. The good news for Snell is that he comes home tonight to Tampa, where he’s been absolutely awesome over the last several seasons from a splits standpoint.

The D-Backs are a good offense and coming off a big series at Coors field in which they piled the runs up on the Rox. They get to add a DH in the AL stadium which gives them another nice bat in their lineup. But there is a phenomenon known as the “Coors effect” that could be in play here. Basically, the logic is that hitters adjust to breaking balls and pitch movement being less in the thin air of the Rockies and then have a hard time readjusting their first game back at regular elevation.  I’m not sure how much that will be in effect today with Snell, who mainly throws fastballs and sliders, but it’s certainly something to think about.

ADVANTAGE: SNELL – Better park factor, great home splits, cheaper, slightly better matchup

MLB DFS Pitching: Second Tier GPP Pivots

Chris Paddack (9.2k both sites) vs. New York Mets

Paddack is squaring off against DeGrom in what could be a really great pitchers’ duel tonight out in San Diego. This kid is legit, and he’s showing just why there was so much buzz around him this preseason as he’s now gone six innings or more in his last three starts and hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start this season. His 1.91 ERA and .70 WHIP are impressive.

The Mets offense is slumping badly and I like the idea of attacking them with Paddack here. It’s a matchup that he could dominate and he should come at low ownership today since I think most people will look to pay up to one of the four highest-priced pitchers in cash and GPP contests.

Cole Hamels (9k both sites) vs. Miami

Hamels may have the best matchup of any pitcher over 9k tonight as he gets to face the hapless Marlins. Hamels is enjoying a bit of a renaissance here this year. He’s 3-0 with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He’s also striking out more hitters, averaging about a strikeout per inning. He dominated this Marlins team just three weeks ago in Miami, holding them scoreless over seven frames and racking up 8 strikeouts. He gets a ballpark downgrade here back home at Wrigley, but the Marlins don’t have many power hitters who can take him deep.

ADVANTAGE: HAMELS – this one was close! The better matchup is really the main reason, but also super small sample size for Paddack, the rookie.

MLB DFS Pitching: Third Tier GPP Pivots

Kevin Gausman (8.1k FD, 8.4k DK) @ Los Angelas Dodgers

Gausman is starting tonight on only two days rest since he was ejected in the second inning of his last start for throwing behind Jose Urena. He really let fantasy owners down that night as he was highly owned in a good matchup against Miami. Tonight is a bad matchup for Gausman as he has to face the Dodgers and their solid collection of hitters in L.A.

The price tag is affordable, but Gausman’s current form coupled with this matchup takes me off him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he pitched okay tonight, but on a slate that is loaded with pitching options, I’ll pass on a guy that I’m just lukewarm on, especially when there’s a similarly priced pitcher I like more.

Marcus Stroman (8.2k FD, 8k DK) vs. Minnesota

Stroman’s hot start finally ended in his last start, as he gave up four runs in only three innings against the Angels. As a guy who pitches to contact most of the time, that was bound to happen sooner or later, but his six previous starts were impressive enough that I have some interest in him here even in a tough matchup against the Twins.

Stroman has a league-best 60% ground ball rate, which is what allows him to pitch deep into games as he piles up ground outs and keeps his pitch count low with quick innings. He has the platoon advantage here over the Twins as they have mainly right-handed bats in their order. They don’t strike out often, but strikeouts aren’t really what we are chasing here anyway. I like him to bounce back tonight at minimal ownership and pitch well against the Twins, a team that is slumping a bit after they were red hot a week ago.

ADVANTAGE: STROMAN – more groundballs, better matchup, better overall numbers this season

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arm/SP2

Martin Perez (7.5k FD, 6.6k DK) @ Toronto

I’ll be the first one to admit that I was not a believer in the “new and improved” Martin Perez. He’d been so hittable for a several year period that I was skeptical that he was anything more than a below average innings eater. But at some point, I had to acknowledge that Perez is having success as a starter with his new team and on a night when could really use a cheap SP2 to pair with all the aces on the board, I think he’s going to be the guy.

Perez started the season as a reliever and added 1-2 MPH in velocity to his fastball this offseason with some improved mechanics. His fastball now sits in the 93-94 MPH range which makes a big difference when he goes to change speeds and use his secondary pitches. He’s also added a cutter to his arsenal that has kept hitters off balance and he has a solid changeup. He’ll throw his sinking two-seamer to lefties and his cutter to righties to get groundballs, and so far it’s working well.

His last outing, an 8-inning, 7-strikeout shutout of the Astros really got my attention. Today he faces the Blue Jays, a team that strikes out 27% of the time and a team he has already pitched well against back in mid-April when he limited them to one run over six innings. It’s a small sample size, but I’m buying Perez as an underpriced asset on DK and he’s my SP2 of choice.

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be Degrom-Perez, while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be Snell-Perez. I’m all in on Martin Perez today…and not sure how to feel about that.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher.

Cash Rankings

1. DeGrom
2. Cole
3. Hamels
4. Paddack
5. Perez (SP2)

GPP Rankings

1. Cole
2. Scherzer
3. Paddack
4. Stroman (SP2)
5. Perez (SP2)

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck in your contests today!