FA Cup Final DFS Breakdown – Saturday 5/18/19

Welcome to the first (and last) edition of my FA Cup DFS Breakdown this season.  I don’t normally do write ups geared towards the FA Cup or towards DraftKings, but with the EPL season over, I know there are DFS soccer junkies looking for some content. 

If you’re not familiar with this tournament, it is a massive tournament in which 736 English clubs competed in this year, and now we’re down to just 2.  It began in 1871, and throughout its history clubs like Notts County and Charlton Athletic have claimed the title.  The magic of the FA Cup can provide enough boost for small clubs to make noise, but in recent years Premier League teams are showing their dominance.

On Saturday, we have Premier League winners Manchester City going for a treble against Watford in the FA Cup Final.  Manchester City is fresh off winning the EPL title last weekend with a 4-1 win over Brighton, and they can win their 3rd trophy of the season with a win against Watford.  In their two games this season, Manchester City won both.  They handled Watford at Vicarage Road 2-1 with goals from Riyad Mahrez and Leroy Sane, and rolled Watford on their home turf by a hat-trick from Raheem Sterling in just 13 minutes.

Manchester City are coming into this game in great form and should be motivated to complete their treble season.  On the other hand, Watford has only 1 win in their last 5 games.  I expect Watford to come ready to give Manchester City a good run for their money, but in the end City’s talent should lead them to a win.

Vegas has City -450 on the money line and favored by 2.0 goals.  The goal total over/under is currently set at 3.0.  Given their status as significant favorites, it would be wise to get a good amount of City exposure.

As far as team news goes, there are really only two names to watch: Gerard Deulofeu and Fernandinho.  Deulofeu picked up an injury in the 2nd half last weekend and is questionable.  Fernandinho was not fit for last week’s EPL finale, and his status remains in doubt for the FA Cup Final.

FA Cup – Top Targets

Sergio Aguero ($11,600) – Sergio Aguero now has 5 consecutive seasons in which he scored 20+ Premier League goals.  He’s the most dangerous goal scorer on an offensive juggernaut team that is a large favorite in a Final.  What’s not to like?  Due to DraftKings basing scoring off of previous FA Cup performances, Aguero isn’t even the most expensive player on the slate.  He has the highest odds at scoring a goal at -133.  DraftKings awards points for shots, not just shots on goal like FanDuel, so Aguero’s 3.6 shots/game average will come in useful on Saturday.  He’s one of the first guys to plug into your lineup.

Raheem Sterling ($10,800) – I’ve already mentioned that Sterling had a hat-trick against Watford in March, which just shows his big game potential.  He follows Aguero as the player with the next highest odds to score at -105.  He doesn’t take as many shots as Aguero does, but his ability cross the ball or add an assist is better than Aguero’s.  Pairing both Sterling and Aguero in your lineup could be difficult but getting at least one in is a smart move.

Phil Foden ($10,400) – It was nice when Foden was cheaper and could be used as a value piece, but despite his price increase, I’m still interested in him on Saturday.  Incorporating as many City attackers into my lineup is going to be a priority.  Several City attackers are priced way up for this game, making them tough to get, but Foden is still affordable as a 2nd or 3rd piece.  He is +250 to score on Saturday, which are still good odds and he should come in lower owned than guys like Bernardo Silva or Riyad Mahrez (who are still good plays in their own right).

FA Cup – Finding Mid-Tier Plays

Troy Deeney ($8,700) – Troy Deeney is one of the more intriguing Watford players for me on Saturday.  Vegas is giving him and Gerard Deulofeu ($9,800) the same odds (+360) to score in this match.  Deulofeu is a good play with 6 goals in his last 10, compared to Deeney’s 3.  However, Deeney is generally better at getting peripherals and the $1,100 savings is huge.  Deeney always plays hard and aggressive, so an intense championship game should fit his style well also.  You don’t really have to prioritize Deeney if you need deeper Watford value to get your City studs, but he is one of the better Watford players on Saturday.

David Silva ($8,100) – This is some criminal pricing here.  David Silva is a key component of City’s attack and has been all season.  I don’t feel the need to put much, if any, stock into his FA Cup game logs.  He hasn’t score in his last 10 games, but he did score 6 this season to go along with 8 assists.  He also leads City in key passes.  Silva has better odds to score (+230) than Foden (who is $2,000+ more expensive) and any Watford attacker.  At the top of this article, I mentioned how crucial it would be to get cheap City exposure, and here’s your opportunity to do so.

Ederson ($6,900) – Ederson is a risky boom-or-bust pick for Saturday.  He could easily get you 20+ points with help from a clean sheet and a win.  However, if City allow Watford to find the back of the net, Ederson might bust with a single digit performance.  It’s worth noting that in both EPL games this year, Watford was able to score against City.  However, given the stakes, I think City is a little tighter on defense this time around.  I don’t expect Ederson to be high owned, and if he keeps a clean sheet, his 20+ points could be big.

FA Cup – Value Players

Etienne Capoue ($4,700) – Capoue is my favorite value play no doubt.  He leads Watford in important defensive peripheral stats on DraftKings like tackles and interceptions.  There will be enough action in this game for Capoue to have a good floor at this price.  Additionally, Capoue can provide some offensive upside with 3 assists and a goal this year, to go along with 0.5 shots per game.  This isn’t a great matchup, hence the price, but his price tag helps you get the studs you need on a single game slate.

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Abdoulaye Doucoure ($4,600) – For $100 less, Doucoure comes in as my second favorite value play.  He doesn’t get the defensive peripherals like Capoue does, which makes his floor riskier.  However, he has 5 goals and 6 assists this season, which is significantly more attacking upside than Capoue.  He also gets 1.5 shots per game, compared to Capoue’s 0.5.  He’s +900 to score a goal on Saturday, and I would be surprised if he did.  Regardless, the main reason to play him here is because of his value.

Vincent Kompany ($5,400) – It really is not clear in my opinion which defenders Guardiola will decide to start on Saturday.  I have little interest in paying up for Aymeric Laporte ($7,100), Oleksandr Zinchenko ($9,000) or Kyle Walker ($8,400), but if Kompany earns another start, I am interested.  Much like Ederson, I think Kompany’s value on Saturday lies with City’s clean sheet.  He’s cheap enough where he should get enough peripheral stats to hit value if he can get those extra 6 points with a clean sheet.

That’s all for the FA Cup DFS Breakdown for this season.  Check back in on my Twitter (@vdray5) on Saturday before lock to see if there are any upsides or surprise starters!