MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – May 28 – Lester, We Have a Problem
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
After a few days off for vacation and a long Memorial Day weekend, I am back and ready to jump into some MLB DFS. Taking a few days away for my first trip to Nashville was a great break full of beer, food, beer, food, music and also beer – and a good reset and refresh in what is always a long baseball grind!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Tuesday Pitching Picks:
Looking over Tuesday’s MLB DFS slate, we have some serious weather risks in key spots as the top four projected IRT’s – Rockies, DBacks, Red Sox and Phillies – are all playing in game with rain risk and in Coors Field specifically it will be below 50 degrees with 15 MPH winds blowing in, assuming the rain allows it to play.
The other thing that is really interesting about this slate is that we seem to lack any “must have” pitching options and even more so, the arms at the top, while good, seem over-priced relative to their match-up.
Stephen Strasburg ($23.2K) is over $2K more expensive than Max Scherzer was yesterday when he was pitching at home, versus the Miami Marlins. Strasburg meanwhile seems priced for that match-up and then some – yet has to travel to Atlanta where it will be 90+ degrees to face the Braves. Alright alright.
Strasburg has the metrics to match his price with a 30% plus K rate and 15% swinging strike rate but against a powerful Braves team that does not strike out ( projected line-up has a 18% K rate this season against RHP), it becomes a really tough sell on this price.
Frankie Montas ($22.1K) has been fantastic in his last two starts with 30+ fantasy points in back to back outings but if you thought Strasburg’s match-up was going to be tough on K’s, well Montas may have an even worse one against the Angles and their 14.6% K rate against RHP this season.
The pricing on Strasburg/Montas combined with the fact they face two of the bottom 10 teams in terms of K rate versus RHP puts some serious limit to their fantasy potential here tonight in my opinion however, I will say – what I am seeing at first glance, is likely the same sticker shock most will see and it may actually make then contrarian tournament plays.
If I had to guess here early on, my assumption is most will take the savings down to someone like Matt Boyd ($19.4K) who takes his 29.6% K rate and 13% swinging strike rate to the mound against a Baltimore Orioles team with a 26% K rate against LHP this season which ranks 8th in baseball.
Also, look at the context of how this slate COULD play out – we have rainy and cold temperatures in Coors Field despite a 12.5 game total, the Red Sox have an IRT nearing 6 with the Phillies at 5.5 but all these games have serious weather risk which begs the question – if we are paying down for pitchers where exactly are we spending for bats?
Strasburg has made only one start in Atlanta the last year, putting up 25 FPTS on the back of 10 K’s and Montas will face the same Angels team he put up 25 FPTS against earlier this season when he struck out 6 batters and gave up only 1 ER.
It is far from a guarantee that these arms can replicate those kind of performances but would you be happy getting 25 FPTS from each of these arms in what could be under-owned spots? Let the sticker shock wear off a bit, maybe paying up for both arms is a way to be different on this slate.
MLB DFS – Building Our Bats:
I am sorry, but after a week away from MLB DFS, is there anything better than coming back to a slate with Mr. Regression himself on it – get excited, it is Jon Lester day boys. After starting the year with his usual wizardry and tomfoolery, Lester has been hit hard in his last two starts – giving up 12 runs (9 ER) in only 8 innings with a 47% fly ball rate and 53% HC rate in those outings.
With his recent struggles and heading to a warm hitting environment in Houston, I would think this spot could gain some traction for a Houston Astros stack but with George Springer and Jose Altuve out of the line-up, I wonder if that keeps folks from stacking an makes it a one-off spot instead for many?
The nice part about this Astros stack (besides facing Lester) is that their pricing is extremely cheap – even the obvious plays like Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman are only $8.1K and $8.8K respectively and you can add guys like Josh Reddick and Michael Brantley in a L/L match-up that will surely get over-looked.
If you take the stack a step further, you have some serious value in Jack Mayfield ($3.9K) made his Major League debut yesterday with Altuve and Aldeyms Diaz both on the IL and at this price point, if he hits 6th again, he becomes one of those Free Squares on FantasyDraft that allows you to get any build you want.
Lastly, if Jake Marisnick is batting 9th, I absolutely love the idea of a wrap around stack here as the Astros OF has a team high .310 ISO against LHP this season and gives you a great way to differentiate your builds for a banged up Houston team that still carries a 5+ IRT here today.
MLB DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build.
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SP: Stephen Strasburg
SP: Frankie Montas
IF: Alex Bregman
IF: Carlos Correa
IF: Jack Mayfield
OF: Michael Brantley
OF: Josh Reddick
OF: Jake Marisnick
UTIL: Starling Castro ($4.5K)
UTIL: Jesus Aguilar ($5.8K)
Slate Overview: What is really interesting to me about this slate is that the weather could end up eliminating entirely or at least adding serious risk to what could be the chalk bats today, which makes this a fascinating GPP slate.
The pricing on the top two arms in Strasburg and Montas combined with their low K match-ups, puts them in a territory where I could see serious low ownership and frankly very few realistic pivots. What I found when doing some first-look builds is that we have the value plays like Castro/Aguilar and Mayfield to make paying up for both arms with a strong stack, a very real possibility so there is some GPP appeal here today is the general buzz is to fade the over-priced arms.
Enjoy the slate all – it has Jon Lester on it after all, always a MLB DFS crowd pleaser.
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