Main DraftKings MLB Picks June 6: Jumpin Jerado!
We have a heavier Thursday for our DraftKings MLB tournaments due to a light Monday. The early DraftKings MLB slate was the larger of the two. The afternoon game out west got throw into a showdown or all day purgatory. The other five games comprise the main slate.
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There is better pitching on the night slate even though the early one had more depth. Most of my go-to bargains (the Giants and Marlins) played this afternoon, so the lineup build is more difficult for the main slate.
Unlike the afternoon slate, the main one has no threat of rain and no wind. It’s just going to be some beautiful baseball weather, albeit a little hot in Arlington. The humidity isn’t particularly high though.
Chris Sale was completely brilliant last night, and Mike Minor wasn’t much worse. However, even with the strong pitching, we needed some Angels, A’s, and Marlins, specifically Brian Anderson, to really win some money. I broke 150 with four lineups, but barely made the cash line.
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on, and we all attack the slate from different angles.
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DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:
Top Tier:
Jose Berrios ($9,700): I’m not all that crazy about Berrios, but this is a short slate, and I trust him a lot more than Corbin against the righty heavy Padres. Berrios has decent numbers on the road this year and overall against Cleveland. The Indians are only hitting .207 against Berrios in 92 at bat with only one homer, but also only 20 strikeouts and 11 runs. Those numbers leave something to be desired. I have no issues using Berrios in a GPP or two, but I wouldn’t use him in cash.
Middle Tier:
Tyler Skaggs ($8,700): The A’s have hit Skaggs hard in the past, but Skaggs was solid against him in his first start of 2019. Skaggs also has a 2.28 ERA in four home starts this year. This is one of those where you have to choose whether to follow the past stats or Skaggs’ home splits this year. I can see both sides of it, but his strikeout upside should help keep Skaggs from having a truly bad game.
J.A. Happ ($7,800): Happ has fared well in three starts against his former team over his career, putting up a 2.81 ERA in those games. Happ also has good career numbers in Rogers Centre. This year that’s a good thing since Happ has struggled at Yankee Stadium. This looks like a really good matchup. He still gives up a lot of homers, but the strikeouts are starting to come back. Happ should rack up his fair share of those against the Jays.
Bargain Pitchers:
Mike Fiers ($6,900): Fiers has been horrible on the road this year, but there is reason to think he is turning his season around. Fiers has allowed three runs or less in every start since April 20th, and has only allowed six runs in his last four starts. His DraftKings point per game average over that span is 21.5. The Angels have hit him well in the past and his road numbers are still horrible, but there is a silver lining should you wish to chase it. Of course, the knock on Fiers is that he doesn’t strike anyone out.
Ariel Jurado ($6,400): I’m still baffled that Jurado is this cheap. He has a 2.43 ERA in three starts and nine relief appearances. In his last two starts, Jurado has allowed four runs in 12.1 innings with nine strikeouts. Those aren’t great numbers, but they are plenty good enough for the price against a team that struggles against right handed pitching. Jurado will be in every lineup for me.
My picks: Berrios, Jurado; Happ, Jurado
DraftKings MLB daily notes:
Carlos Santana is 4-11 with a homer and three RBI against Jose Berrios, so he will be in most of my builds. So will Francisco Lindor, who is 5-17 with six RBI. A super cheap Jose Ramirez is tempting, but he doesn’t have great career numbers against Berrios.
Go look at the numbers on Trevor Bauer. Specifically his home numbers and career numbers against the Twins. I’ll wait. If you don’t have the time, Bauer has a 5.60 ERA in six home starts and the Twins have 26 runs in 197 at bats against Bauer. Bauer threw up 30 on them earlier this year, but that was in Minneapolis before the Twins realized that bats were for hitting home runs.
This offense is cooking now. I’m not using Bauer, and am going to use some Twins against him. Jorge Polanco is 6-22 with three homers and five RBI against Bauer. Eddie Rosario is 12-39(.308) with two homers and nine RBI against Bauer. Nelson Cruz is an impressive 7-14 with a homer and four RBI. I’m leaning heavily on those three, but not using a full stack.
I kind of want to throw Vlad Jr. out there against Happ since he has allowed 15 homers in 12 starts this year. Randall Grichuk and Justin Smoak are worth considering as well due to the power potential.
If you are looking for the stack of the night, it could be the Yankees. Edwin Jackson continues to struggle, and this isn’t going to help. Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner are the only two healthy Yankees that have homered against Jackson so far, but I could see Frazier or Gary Sanchez adding their names to that list.
Wow, it’s tempting to use David Hess at just $4,200, but he hasn’t allowed less than three runs in any start this year. Even the instances of him allowing three runs are scarce. Hess is getting torched, so I’m throwing several Rangers at him. Rougned Odor, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Choo are my favorites. If you want a full stack, just add Mazara and either Elvis Andrus or Ronald Guzman if he starts.
The Baltimore bats are getting expensive, and I don’t think many if any will be worth it tonight. You could take a shot with a cheap Stevie Wilkerson or Hanser Alberto, but that’s about it for me.
I totally get wanting to go after Fiers, and I likely will with one build. Mike Trout and Albert Pujols each have two homers against Fiers. Lucroy and Kole Calhoun have taken him deep as well. A red hot Tommy LaStella is pretty much a must play at his price batting leadoff as well.
The A’s are hitting .299 with six homers and 16 runs in 134 at bats against Skaggs. Khris Davis is 7-18 with four homers and seven RBI. Semien is 10-21 with two homers and five RBI. I am going to limit my exposure to those two just in case Skaggs’ splits are indicative of his true talent.
You can chase the strikeouts with Patrick Corbin if you want, but there’s no way I’m playing him against a Padres team that is hitting .281 against him in 96 at bats. Renfroe, Machado, Wil Myers, and Austin Hedges have all homered off of him. In fact, Myers is hitting .370 with eight runs against Corbin. I may throw a reasonable priced Franmil Reyes out there since all he does is hit bombs.
The Nationals have torched Joey Lucchesi so far. Enough so that I have no interest in Lucchesi here. Rendon, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto have all homered off of him. Trea Turner also looks really cheap at $4,400.
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