Welcome to the Thursday’s edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Wednesday night’s MLB DFS slate was all about pitching and one man in particular, Chris Sale, who went for a 50+ fantasy points outing on the back of 12K’s and got the CGSO bonus on FantasyDraft. You know who else got that bonus – none other than the best pitcher in New York – Jason Vargas – who dominated the Giants for 41 fantasy points with 9k’s as the second highest scoring play on the entire slate.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching:
We have a split slate Thursday with 7 games on the Early MLB DFS slate and another 5 games on the Main Slate which is one of the best possible set-ups in my opinion for all day daily fantasy sports.
The Early Slate, outside of some rain risk in Boston/Kansas City looks to be pretty clear with warm temperatures in many parks on the slate. What really stands out to me however is that we have two clear high-end arms at the top and then a bunch of secondary “names” that I wonder if people will try to talk themselves into today much like they did last night with a super chalky Yu Darvish – seriously, he was 59% owned in the $25 GPP on FantasyDraft.
Zack Wheeler ($20.2K) will get the same home match-up against a punchless San Francisco Giants team that Cy Vargas just ripped through last night and as a -180 favorite with SF having the lowest IRT on the slate, he seems like the perfect SP1 for cash games.
Wheeler has taken the progress he made in the second half of last year and built on it in a big way, as his K rate has jumped to 26.4%, while maintaining a 6-7% walk rate and working deep into games – going 6 or more innings now in 10 straight starts.
Not only is this Giants line-up a good one for run prevention, but with 6 lefties plus the pitcher in the projected line-up, it should bode well for Wheeler’s K upside as he is sporting a 31% K rate against LHB in 2019.
While Wheeler is the safe choice as an SP1, Caleb Smith ($18.1K) becomes the ideal GPP pivot – the best strikeout arm on the slate in 2019 with a 33.8% K rate and 15.9% swinging strike rate. The hesitancy for most is going to be his match-up as a road underdog heading to Miller Park to face the Brewers.
Milwaukee will likely go right-handed heavy with the exception of Yelich/Moustakas and while the Brewers are not a team I normally go out of my way to pick on, on a small slate like this, I think siding with the pure K upside of Smith is the ideal way to attack the slate, actually pairing him with Wheeler as a double-barrel spot.
This two ace approach is something I have been using frequently on FantasyDraft when we have elite K arms and weak secondary offerings and that is exactly what I think we have today. My guess is most go Wheeler and then play the game of using Freddy Peralta as an SP2 against the Marlins or roll with Mike Foltynewicz against the Pirates.
Frankly with Smith’s price coming down to close to $18K here today, I think the risk is already baked in and he has a ceiling that easily puts him in the conversation to be the top raw point arm on the slate and a Wheeler/Smith pairing leaves you with roughly $7.8K per batter which is more than enough on a slate where we lack any must have offensive spots.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Batting:
With a Wheeler/Smith pairing being relatively cost-effective here today, you are going to be able to stack up some of the better offenses on the slate which brings even more validity to this double ace approach on FantasyDraft.
While we do not have any material hitting weather in Wrigley today, we do have a rookie pitcher on the mound for the Rockies and one of the most talented line-ups in baseball on the other side at seemingly far too cheap pricing.
The Rockies will call up RHP Peter Lambert to make his major league debut in Wrigley against the Cubs and based off his minor league numbers, I think this is a guy we want to prioritize our bats against. In the last two seasons in AAA, Lambert has pitched to a 5+ ERA in both seasons and while he has exhibited strong control with a 6% walk rate, he has only a 12.7% and 19.6% K rate the last two years.
The scouting report on Lambert screams back-end starter – as he is a strike thrower that while he has a multi-pitch mix, lacks any single plus offering. When you put that kind of arm on the mound against a Cubs line-up where 5 of the top 6 batters have .200+ ISO marks against RHP this season, it could be a long day for the rookie.
The beauty of this stack on FantasyDraft is the pricing – even the elite plays like Anthony Rizzo ($8.7K), Javier Baez (9.3K) and Kris Bryant ($9.3K) are easily affordable as a result of pairing them with the values in this stack like Kyle Schwarber ($7.3K) and Carlos Gonzalez ($5.8K). You can roll out a 6 man stack here with Willson Contreras, and you would still have $6.4-$6.5K for the last two one off’s in your line-up. All the Cubbies today my friends.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build.
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SP: Zack Wheeler
SP: Caleb Smith
IF: Anthony Rizzo
IF: Javier Baez
IF: Willson Contreras
OF: Kris Bryant
OF: Kyle Schwarber
OF: Carlos Gonzalez
UTIL: Starlin Castro
UTIL: Carlos Gomez
Slate Overview: As I am sure you have realized if you read Picks and Pivots with any regularity, I am a big fan of the double-barrel aces with a 6 man stack approach when it comes to roster build on FantasyDraft but I will say, it has to come organically and on this early slate, I think it absolutely does.
From a pure K upside perspective it is hard to argue that Wheeler and Smith are not the two best plays and the pricing is soft enough where you can easily stack around them. The fact you can do so with a big time power stack like the Cubs against an underwhelming minor-leaguer makes this a pairing that feels like the path of least resistance.
My guess is Smith is far less owned than he should be as folks are scared away by the Brewers bats and will instead take the tantalizing upside of Peralta on the other side against a Marlins team everyone falls over themselves to pick on – and well, if you have been doing it, you have likely been losing yourself money. Both Chase Anderson and Jimmy Nelson were popular SP2’s the last two slates and the Marlins have put up 24 runs in those games. Peralta is the play the breaks the slate – he could strike out 10 or give up 10 runs in the first – I am going to take the fade approach and simply take the two best arms on the slate instead.
One note – keep an eye on lineups with it being a day slate as we almost always get wonky value that opens up as guys get planned rest days.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Arms:
Where the Early Slate really only had two clear options, the Main Slate for a five-gamer is loaded at the top with Patrick Corbin, Jose Berrios, Trevor Bauer, Joey Lucchesi and David Hess (OK I am kidding) all on the hill and all under $20K on FantasyDraft.
The reason I bring up the pricing is that it becomes very easy to lock in two of the top arms and still build viable power stacks around them and with the value arms on this slate being nothing more than YOLO GPP plays, I am living in this range and this range only.
Patrick Corbin ($19.9K) is the highest priced arm on the slate, getting a massive park boost against the Padres in San Diego and coming into this game with 30+ fantasy points in three of his last five outings. While the Padres will go right-handed heavy, the reality is this Padres team is one of the worst in baseball against LHP – as they have a 27.3% K rate against LHP in 2019 which ranks 2nd in baseball.
Corbin is coming off a rough start against the Reds, but going from Great American Ballpark to Petco is one of the biggest boosts a pitcher can get and this is an arm who has 30 fantasy points in 5 of 12 starts this year and on a short slate, that is the kind of upside I simply can’t pass on.
For me the decision on an SP2 comes down to Jose Berrios and Trevor Bauer with Berrios being $1.2K more expensive on FantasyDraft. From a season long perspective, Bauer has all the metrics advantage as he actually leads the slate in K % at 27% as well as swinging strike rate at 12.4%.
The price has come down on Bauer as a result of a two 7 ER outings in the first half of May but in his last two starts we are getting the usual Indians ace as he has struck out 8 in back to back starts against the Rays and White Sox with a 16:2 K:BB ratio with only 2 ER allowed in each game.
The fact that Berrios has seen his K rate drop over 3% since last year, the fact he is more expensive and this game is on the road where his career splits have always pointed to the worst side of his splits – I would rather lock in the home arm here in Bauer at a discount.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Bats:
The Main Slate has three teams with 5+ IRT’s as of this writing with the Rangers and Yankees standing out as the clear top stacks in Vegas eyes and when you look at the pricing here today – you can really pick either/or of these stacks and build them around two elite arms – making this a potential do not get cute spot.
While the Rangers get perhaps the worst arm in baseball against them in David Hess, I think the Yankees make for the better bang for your buck stack against Edwin Jackson in Toronto. Jackson is fresh off a 10 run beat down in Coors Field, one start after he gave up 7 runs to the Padres and is now sporting a 13.22 ERA with 3.3 HR/9 and a tidy little 46.2% HC rate.
The Yankees stack, much like the Cubs stack early on, is loaded with power as they have 6 of their projected 9 batters with .200+ ISO marks against LHP this season. The four man power stack in the heart of this line-up – Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres and Aaron Hicks – may be pricey but you get the ability to round out a stack with punt values like Kendrys Morales ($5.7K) which makes stacking the Yankees a far more feasible route.
In addition to Morales, there are other bats that at first glance caught my eye – either punts or simply too cheap values. Chris Davis ($5.7K) in Texas gives you a pivot off Morales or you can pair alongside him to pen up ever more salary in the hope he pays it off with one swing of the bat.
Jose Ramirez ($6.6K) is simply a price enforcement play – this is one of the best hitters in baseball and the price is simply laughable. Yes I know he is ice-cold right now but this is a player with a .289 ISO mark against RHP in the past two years and if you are fading Berrios as an SP1/2, then I think J-Ram makes for an ideal one-off today.
The Oakland bats were real good to me last night and once again today, they look a tad too cheap against LHP Tyler Skaggs who is giving up 45% HC against RHB this season and this A’s line-up has 7 of their 9 batters with .200+ ISO marks against LHB in 2019. Khris Davis ($7.8K) has a .308 ISO mark against LHP since the start of last season and has a massive .438 ISO mark against the curve ball – a pitch Skaggs throws over 30% of the time to RHB this season.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build.
More from FanSided
- Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
- NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
- 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
- Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
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SP: Patrick Corbin
SP: Trevor Bauer
IF: Gary Sanchez
IF: Gleyber Torres
IF: Kendrys Morales
OF: Aaron Hicks
OF: Jose Ramirez
OF: Khris Davis
UTIL: Luke Voit
UTIL: Chris Davis
Slate Overview: The Main Slate is another where I think you pay up for both arms and take advantage of pricing that allows you to still stack up one of the top offenses on the slate in the Yankees.
There is ample value here with guys like Morales/Chris Davis to make it work and you can use far too cheap elite hitters like Ramirez/Davis as salary savers (which seems insane to type) all around a Yankees stack with two top arms.
These slates look like they are going to be a lot of fun so get those builds in and let’s keep building our bankroll ahead of the weekend!
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