NBA DFS: Finals Game 4 Showdown Picks

NBA DFS: Game 4 Showdown Picks

Hello there, NBA fans, and welcome to my Finals showdown article. I covered the NBA for five months this season and since then I’ve been on the MLB beat now for two months straight. I wanted to take an opportunity to put some NBA DFS content out there today for all of you who all still grinding the one game showdowns on FanDuel or DraftKings.

My goal is to give you both the highest percentage plays (for cash) and some lower owned, game-theory based picks for GPPs. Building rosters on FanDuel and Draftkings is very different with their pricing structures and scoring systems, but you usually need roughly the same combination of players on either site to finish in the money.

Unfortunately, we were held hostage with Klay Thompson‘s status until the final 30 minutes before lock on Wednesday night. I don’t think that will happen again, as Klay has already stated that he expects to play in game four Friday night.

I had to make some major pivots after Klay was ruled out, and ended up with a few good teams, but had too much DeMarcus Cousins, who was a major disappointment. Andrew Bogut was a solid value pick but I also pivoted to too many shares of Quinn Cook who didn’t do too much even though he played big minutes.

Let’s take a quick review of game three and see what info we can use when building our game four lineups.

NBA DFS: Game 3 Breakdown

The Raptors looked awesome in Game 3 and led start to finish in their 123-109 victory over the Warriors that pushed the series to 2-1 in their favor. They outscored Golden State in all four quarters and had control of the game throughout.

The Warriors were without Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant but got a finals-best 47 points from Steph Curry on 31 shot attempts. Steph was really the only reliable option on offense for the Dubs, as only Draymond Green (17) and Andre Iguodala (11) were the only other Warriors who cracked double digits.

Shaun Livingston started for Thompson, but only played 17 minutes, while Quinn Cook played 25 minutes off the bench and provided 9 points. DeMarcus Cousins was completely ineffective in 19 minutes and was outplayed by Andrew Bogut who finished with 21 minutes. Coach Kerr struggled to find a combination of five players who would match up with Toronto.

Meanwhile, the Raptors were firing on all cylinders with six players finishing in double digits. They were led by 30 points from their star Kawhi Leonard, who was efficient shooting from the field and the foul line. Kawhi’s sidekick, Kyle Lowry, finally showed up in the Finals for the first time with 23 points and 9 assists. Maybe being shoved someone in the Warriors ownership group got him fired up?

The role players really came through for Toronto, as Pascal Siakam and Danny Green (6-10 from three-point range) finished with 18 points, Marc Gasol had a tidy 17 points, Fred Van Vleet added 11 off the bench, and Serge Ibaka contributed 2 steals and 6 blocks on defense. No one outside the top 7 got more than 6 minutes on the floor as Toronto continues to run a tight rotation.

The Raptors shot an impressive 44% from downtown going 17-38 from behind the arc.  The full box score for game 3 can be found here if you want to take a look for yourself.

The Warriors have opened as 5.5 point home favorites for game 4 and the Vegas total is set at 216, a number that both games 1 and 3 went over so far in the series.

NBA DFS: Cash Game Plays

Kawhi Leonard (16k FD, 11.6k DK)

There’s absolutely no reason not to play Kawhi in cash. He’s averaging 29 points, 9.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 2.3 steals/blocks so far in the finals in 40 minutes a game.

I’ll just keep saying what I’ve been saying all series long, lock him into cash lineups and consider running him in close to 100% of your GPPs, too. He’s been amazing all playoffs long and he continues to facilitate

Steph Curry (16k FD, 11.8k DK)

Steph was awesome in game three, carrying the Warriors on his back and keeping them within striking distance to the end. Klay’s return to the lineup will mean less volume shooting for Steph, but hopefully an increase in efficiency. He’s averaging 34-5-5 through the first three games but on only 42% shooting. The Warriors are going to have to continue to lean on his offense even with Klay back, and they better hope that he found his shooting stroke in game 3.

Draymond Green (13k FD, 10.4k DK)

Draymond continues to provide a nice floor with his multi-category statistical contributions. He’s averaging 14-9-8 so far in the first three games and playing 40 minutes a game. The Warriors really can’t afford to keep him off the floor for very long as they desperately need his defense and playmaking. The return of Klay to the lineup should help his assist total and we know he’s capable of big games if he piles up steals and blocks on defense.

Pricing is getting a little tighter at this point in the series, but I would definitely not make any cash lineups that don’t have at least two of these three players in them. If you fade two of these guys and they happen to be the two highest scorers, you’re dead meat.

NBA DFS: GPP Plays

Klay Thompson (11.5k FD, 8.6k DK)

I’m going right back to Klay in GPPs. We saw how badly the Warriors missed his offense and he was playing so well in game two before he was injured. His price actually went down 500 bucks on FanDuel and he’s got the highest ceiling of any of the secondary plays in this game in my opinion.

DeMarcus Cousins (11k FD, 6.8k DK)

Cousins should be a lower owned option in game four if recency bias keeps players off him after that poor outing Wednesday night. His price went up on FD, but down on DK so you may want to get more exposure on Draftkings. He should have a good chance at bouncing back, the Warriors need him to give them something offensively and he has the ability to get it done.

Kyle Lowry (11k FD, 8k DK)

Lowry is way too cheap for a player of his caliber and we saw what he’s capable of in game three when his shot is falling and he’s in the flow of the offense. He should be a more popular pick on Friday night, but he still won’t garner anywhere near the ownership of Steph, Dray, or Kawhi. I like rolling him out there and hoping he stays hot shooting the basketball and keeps his hands to himself as he did in game 3 (foul trouble in games 1 and 2).

NBA DFS: Top Value Plays

Serge Ibaka (8k FD, 4.4k DK)

I will keep playing Ibaka every game this series at this price. He managed to pile up 35 FD points in only 21 minutes in game three thanks to 8 defensive stats! His minutes are always a little dicey, but his impact is being felt on the court when he’s out there and he has the potential for a big game every time he takes the floor.

Danny Green (7.5k FD, 4.8k DK)

Green finally had a big-time shooting performance, nailing 6-10 from downtown to go with 5 boards, a block, and a steal. His minutes are hovering the high 20’s and that’s plenty of time for him to rack up stats in these fast-paced games. Rostering him and a few other good value plays are going to allow you the salary cap to spend up for the studs, a roster construction that I am currently favoring.

Andrew Bogut (6k FD, 4k DK)

Bogut was one of my value plays for game 3 and he didn’t disappoint, piling up 24 FD points in 21 minutes off the bench. He’s always been an efficient fantasy producer, even in limited minutes here late in his career. I’d recommend some exposure in case we see Boogie get in foul trouble or struggle and put his head down early in this game. He got a price hike on DK but is still the stone minimum on FanDuel.

NBA DFS: Final Thoughts

If you’re playing showdowns on either site, it makes sense to make multiple lineups. Find the core plays that you feel really good about and then mix and match the secondary players around them. On FanDuel, you can play the same 5 guys in different lineups and just rotate players in and out of the MVP, STAR, and PRO slots to be different.

Kawhi and Steph are my top plays in all formats, but in GPPs just remember that they will be 75% owned or more. Fading one of them will open up a ton of cap space and allow you a unique roster construction.

Whatever you do, don’t play the exact same lineup that won contests in Game 3. Both teams are going to make adjustments and as I saw

Mix and match those chalky picks with the contrarian GPP picks to create dozens of unique lineups, and don’t be afraid to leave some salary on the table to be different!

My favorite FanDuel combination right now is Kawhi-Curry-Klay-Ibaka-Danny Green.

My favorite Draftkings combination is Ibaka (capt), Draymond-Kawhi-Lowry-Danny Green-Klay.

Thanks for taking the time to read my Finals Game 4 breakdown for NBA DFS showdown! Good luck in your contests! If you’re not already following me on Twitter, hit me up @ThunderDanDFS and make sure you are checking in here at FantasyCPR for the best in DFS content for all sports.

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