Tyreek Hill avoids suspension: Fantasy Context

With Tyreek Hill avoiding suspension, Rizzla tackles the question regarding how to value him and the other Chiefs players fantasy values will be affected.

Superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill has avoided suspension from the NFL for his latest off-field transgressions. Discourse on whether or not he deserved some form of penalty or the inconsistency and optics of Roger Goodell’s countless whimsical decisions is beyond the scope of this piece. In pure fantasy football terms, this is monumental news. Let’s examine the fantasy context.

Those who have participated in early drafts and avoided Tyreek just received a swift kick to the face, as a top-20 asset lasted until the middle or later rounds of many drafts. Hill is a game-changing fantasy option that probably just won a lot of owners their leagues before the season even opened.

Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill are arguably the best quarterback-wide receiver duo in the sport, especially when age is taken into account. Prior to the extended audio being leaked, there was major concern in the fantasy community and the football community as a whole that Tyreek may be suspended for a full season, or receive an indefinite ban.

Tyreek Hill was an absolute monster on the field (crazy, I have to make that qualification) in 2018. As per playerprofiler, he ranked fourth in fantasy points per game, second in touchdowns, fifth in air yards, fourth in receiving yards, and tenth in receptions. He also ranked second with 522 yards after the catch, fourth with 2.98 yards per pass route, sixth with 10.8 yards per target, eighth with 17 yards per reception, third with 0.66 fantasy points per route, and fifth with 2.39 fantasy points per target.

Fantasy Context:

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek, as mentioned above is a beast on the field. A gifted receiver with running back skills, Hill is a homerun threat whenever he has the ball in his hands. He will help keep the Chiefs offense humming and keeps Patrick Mahomes as the hands-down best option in fantasy football. Hill is a WR1 that will be flying off of boards towards the end of the first round or the beginning of the second.

Hill should be in line for a monster season, especially if he does not receive an extension before the season. There is nothing more motivating than playing for a payday, especially when it concerns a player who was expected to receive the highest wide receiver contract in history prior to the initial audio leak.

In redraft, draft Hill with confidence. In dynasty, there are two schools of thought. If you are an owner you can try to sell high to someone willing to overlook the fact that he is one mistake away from a prolonged suspension. If you are a buyer, you can look to buy low if his current owner is motivated to sell now that their asset has returned to have some value. Just remember he is likely one strike away from a year suspension when his history is taken into account.

Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes is a big winner with the news that his superstar wide receiver will receive absolutely zero punishment from the NFL. Mahomes set the world on fire in his first season as a starter, and as scary as it sounds, he may be even better in 2019. The Chiefs should have some stability in the backfield and have added the exciting Mecole Hardman who can take over the Chris Conley go route role. Mahomes ranked first in fantasy points per game, touchdowns, fantasy points per dropback, adjusted yards per attempt, red zone attempts, and deep ball attempts according to playerprofiler.com. He ranked second in passing yards, fourth in air yards, and 11th in rushing yards. Mahomes has the highest ceiling of any quarterback we have seen since Cam Newton’s first season and is the lone quarterback who should be drafted early, even in Superflex formats.

Sammy Watkins

Sammy Watkins and his early drafter owners are the biggest losers with the breaking of this news. Watkins was being drafted as the presumed number one receiver for the Chiefs and now will slide back to the number two role he showed a frustrating amount of inconsistency manning in 2018. He had his flashes, but his talent dictates he should have been much more dominant, especially in single coverage with the top fantasy QB throwing him the ball. Productive when he received targets (5.5 per game in 2018), Sammy ranked 18th in fantasy points per target with 2.09. However, he finished as the 33rd overall wide receiver in fantasy points per game. He also placed 33rd with 0.48 yards per pass route.

Travis Kelce

Poised to threaten the single-season reception record for tight ends with Tyreek Hill expected to miss a significant portion of, if not the entirety of the 2019 season, Kelce sees his potential record-breaking upside dwindle with the troubled receiver avoiding suspension. He will still in all likelihood to finish as the number one overall fantasy tight end and should be among the top three in receptions. Kelce was the number fantasy tight end in 2018 and was among the leaders in every statistical category including targets, receptions, receiving yards, air yards, red zone targets and receptions, and fantasy points per pass route.

Mecole Hardman

Hardman is the player who appears to have lost the most potential fantasy value with this news. High expectations were placed upon the rookie wide receiver with Hill potentially facing a lengthy suspension, but with Hill avoiding any penalty whatsoever, his fantasy stock craters. Hardman could still be in line for a low volume, deep threat role, but the upside that made him a first-round pick in early dynasty rookie drafts, and a ninth round pick in early redrafts has vanished. His ADP has already dropped to the 11th round and should take a nosedive in drafts leading up to the season. He is still a solid best ball target but is at best the fourth option on a team that will see 100 plus targets go to Hill and Kelce. Look elsewhere at his current ADP.

Damien Williams/Carlos Hyde/Darwin Thompson

The Chiefs running backs lose a bit of value here as the Chiefs failed to add an impact wide receiver to replace Hill in the event he was actually suspended. Mecole Hardman was expected to soak up some of the 137 targets Hill’s absence would have opened up, but the rest of them would have been spread out between the receivers and the Chiefs backfield. With that said, Hill avoiding suspension will help ensure the Chiefs backfield sees a limited amount of stacked boxes. All three running backs take a slight hit to the fantasy upsides. Darrell Williams did not figure to see many targets and sees his fantasy stock unaffected by this news.

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