5 best bets for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year

The NFL season starts this week, which means the many sportsbooks around the country are expecting a flurry of bets. One of the hardest bets to pin down is Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Every season, the NFL gives out awards to celebrate the best players who’ve never played in the NFL before. Us bettors have tried to predict who might be the player to put our hard-earned money on, but on the defensive side of the ball it’s one of the hardest spots to predict.

When it comes to the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, there are multiple factors you must look at. For one, you have to look at the opportunity. Many defensive players taken in the first two rounds will start right away, but which ones will be in a position to succeed? Which players will have a chance to shine? Some players might be in a situation where a star player outshines them on almost every play. Those are not the players to put your money on.

On the other hand, there are certain players that will take their opportunity and run with it the second it comes to them.

This award is a strange one. It seems to mirror the thought process of the league more than anything. Over the past five years, where we understand that team defense is more important than stars, we’ve had four different positions win the award. In the mid-2000s, when linebacker became a big priority, that position won seven years in a row.

This season, the rookies are all over the map on the defensive side. The former favorite, Nick Bosa, has major question marks in terms of his injury history. He’s fallen down the odds list because of those worries, which shows just how much goes into these bets every year.

Last year’s winner was the Indianapolis Colts Darius Leonard. He opened as 28/1 odds to win the award. That means if someone bet $100 on Leonard’s opening odds, he then won bettors $2,800. That’s a massive win. This is why the Defensive Rookie of the Year is such a promising bet. Someone who thinks they have an edge puts a generally small amount of money down for a big return.

This season, the worst possible odds are Devin Bush at +500. On the offensive side, Kyler Murray is +160, which is not a great return for you. So where should you put your money on the defensive side of the ball? Here are five best bets:

5. Nasir Adderley +3400

This one is a long shot for a reason, but there’s some real value in the Los Angeles Chargers Nasir Adderley. He was slightly injured this offseason, but we expect him to be 100% come Week 1 after his hamstring injury. The one thing we really expect from Adderley is a major opportunity.

Adderley is a playmaker coming out of the University of Delaware. In his only preseason game, he had an interception. That’s the only way a safety is going to get attention for this award is if they are causing turnovers at a very high clip.

Only twice in NFL history has a safety won this award. That’s a scary fact when putting your money on Adderley. It’s been 30 years since a safety won the award. This is even more surprising since we got past the late 90s, when we were prioritizing hard-hitting safeties, without one winning this award.

However, the pure opportunity can’t allow us to ignore these odds. Adderley has the chance to shine early in the season because Derwin James is injured. He won’t slip into his spot immediately, but his combination of size and speed will force Anthony Lynn’s hand. He can also play some cornerback in certain situations like he did in college. That might also help his case.

We believe he will find a way into the starting lineup quickly. The injury is now behind him, and he’s going to be better as the season goes on. Can he win this award, outpacing every other defensive rookie in the league? It will be hard, but it’s definitely possible. At 34/1 odds, it’s the right bet to make with anyone who is looking to put some money on a long shot.