The one skill Zach LaVine must improve to be an All-Star

For Zach LaVine to take the next step into All-Star territory, he’ll have to improve his passing while also cutting down on turnovers.

Before last season, the name “Zach LaVine” elicited the image of through-the-legs dunks, 360 tomahawks, and a commercial with the Migos (Dat Way). If one was not aware of his tangible basketball skills, it was fair. Because LaVine, the microwave scorer and invisible defender he was, left a lot on the table.

LaVine broke through last season, averaging the most points of his career (23.7 per game) at a relatively efficient percentage (57.8 percent true shooting) given that he was surrounded by one of the weakest supporting casts in the league. Despite having experienced a jarring change from Fred Hoiberg’s pace-and-space offense to Jim Boylen’s intentional slowdown. Despite the off-court issues, the most detrimental of which was a near-mutiny staged by the Bulls players after Boylen promised a “grueling” practice due to a humiliating loss. Despite having to pick up his scoring load, with Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. sidelined for a combined 68 missed games. Despite having to create an abnormal amount, since Jabari Parker was misused at small forward and Kris Dunn having failed to click with him.

LaVine’s statline —  23.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game —  was matched by 10 players last season: James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving, Blake Griffin, Bradley Beal and LeBron James. Of those 10, LaVine was the only to not be named an All-Star. After erasing the notion of being just an athlete, now, LaVine is widely-considered an “empty stats” player.

“I took a step last year, but I feel like that was a stepping stone for what I want to do and what I envision myself doing,” LaVine told Sam Smith of Bulls.com earlier in the summer. “Everything comes with winning. I haven’t won since you know college and high school. I want to play in meaningful games. Every NBA game is meaningful, but you want to go to the playoffs and play where big plays are made. I consider myself someone who can make those big plays and I want to be able to go out and do that.”

Next season, the Bulls have a brighter outlook. The headliners of a productive free agency were Tomas Satoransky and Thaddeus Young, both of whom are not stars but team-first veterans. Markkanen is looking buff in Instagram pictures again. And though Carter had surgery on his core muscle over the summer, he is slated to return before training camp starts on Oct. 1. LaVine has the pieces; can he deliver?

LaVine is already a top-20 scorer. The next step for him is to improve his passing. Doing so would single-handedly erase the notion that he only cares about dunking and scoring, rendering him a legitimate All-Star candidate in the eyes of voters.

LaVine’s fourth-highest vertical in NBA history (46 inches) negates his average size, standing 6-foot-5 and brandishing a 6-foot-8 wingspan. Fans notice his vertical athleticism on his dunks, but look closely, and one can see it on his passes, too. What it does is enable him to make right-handed jump-passes over the outstretched hands of shot-blockers:

His vertical athleticism can be the devil on his right shoulder, as other times he gets frozen in the air with nowhere to go:

He uses his elite vertical athleticism in a variety of ways, including when dribbling. He deploys a subtle hang-dribble that one needs to watch in slow motion for full effect. Like a racehorse, he lifts off the ground, using pent up momentum to gallop forward. Help defenders are thusly forced to stop his drive or concede an open dunk:

But when a defender cuts him off mid hang dribble — be it helpside or his on-ball defender — it often results in a turnover. In particular, the up-down lift makes it difficult for him to shift his hips side-to-side:

Since there are two backcourt players required from the Eastern Conference, LaVine’s main competitors will likely be Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal and Victor Oladipo. Having combined for 8 All-Star appearances, that trio not only boast better credentials than LaVine, but also offers an outline he can attempt to Xerox.

By looking at their assist rates and usage rates in comparison with their turnover rates in the season before their All-Star season, their All-Star season, and the season after All-Star season, one can understand how each one improved their passing.

While noise exists in assist rates and turnover rates — assists largely depend on teammates while there are different types of turnovers (dribbling and passing) — both advanced statistics effectively capture a player’s passing skills.

While defense and scoring were also factors, the largest improvement between the three reaching All-Star level is the improvement of their passing ability. Specifically, despite a larger role, they vastly improved as passers while keeping their turnovers relatively low. Furthermore, in the year after making their first All-Star team — and in Butler’s case, two years after, too — they cut down their turnovers, whether in a slightly larger or smaller role.

With Satoransky in the fold and Kris Dunn likely on his way out, LaVine will be paired next to a ball-sharing guard rather than a ball-dominant guard. Where Satoransky takes better care of the ball, Dunn is the better passer. The stylistic difference between the two boils down to the fact that LaVine will be tasked with slightly more creating duties, elevating the need for him to A) be more careful with the ball and B) be more of a creator.

While LaVine averaged a career-high number of assists, they were overshadowed by his turnovers. He ranked 20th in “bad pass” turnovers and fourth in “lost ball” turnovers last season, per NBAMiner.

In the half-court, LaVine converts his stop-and-go speed to side-to-side movement, mostly to drive left, his preferred route. In his bag are a hesitation move, an in-and-out maneuver and a left-to-right crossover, the last of which is one of the best crossovers in the league, up there with Kyrie Irving’s snatch-back and Kemba Walker’s pullback. Beating his defender, he is empowered to kick-out to shooters:

The problem is, LaVine does not go right enough. When he does, it is to flow into a pull-up jumper. In general, defending those with a one-handed tendency is not particularly difficult. Scouting reports inform the defender to reach early into their opponent’s weak side to steal the ball or slide to the strong side before they drive to stifle them. Defending LaVine is no different.

Defenders can assume he is not looking for the kick-out pass. He scores at a pretty high rate on drives, but his assist percentage of 6.2 percent mirrors that of Bojan Bogdanovic, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jaylen Brown — all solid if unspectacular passers. Tacking on the ability to drive right would work wonders for LaVine’s game.

This is not merely an issue that befalls LaVine, but the Chicago Bulls as well. His creation is best kept under wraps, unfurled mainly in simple read situations. Last season, most of LaVine’s assists stemmed from within the offense. In the pick-and-roll, for example, he rarely went out of his way to make skip-passes, but when a shooter “lifted,” he did:

When he did attempt to make skip passes, LaVine regularly stared down targets like Mitch Trubisky, allowing defenders to intercept it:

Upon being hired in early December, Jim Boylen installed a “crawl before they walk” offensive philosophy, but as the season wore on, he sped up the offense, doing so in early February. He restored Hoiberg’s multiple ball-handler system, in which any Bull, point guard or not, was encouraged to initiate the offense. Deploying the system full-time would greatly benefit LaVine. The fourth-fastest player in the NBA, LaVine leverages his lightning quick speed to create opportunities not only for the benefit of himself but teammates, too.

In the half-court, the path to maximizing LaVine is utilizing him as a ball-handler in the pick-and-roll as much as possible. He was 12th in pick-and-roll ball-handling percentile for those who used seven or more possessions. Thanks to an awareness in the pick-and-roll, a majority of LaVine’s assists were to Robin Lopez, Carter or Markkanen last season. Employing a 3-point touch (36.1 percent on 6.2 attempts per game), the Finnisher tends to pop on ball-screens, forcing the “dropping” big into a bind: contest the his shot or stifle LaVine’s drive:

While Carter is not the human whirlwind that Lopez is, nor the fluid 3-point shooter of Markkanen’s caliber, he is, in his own right, a wise roll man, exploring and often finding the open crease in the defense. LaVine probes the defense and utilizes Carter as a safety outlet of sorts:

The Chicago Bulls’ pragmatic approach this offseason underscores the belief that their young core is ready to lead this team to the playoffs, a goal John Paxson has also explicitly stated. On the roster, as currently constructed, there is no concrete superstar, but LaVine, with his scoring prowess and bouncy athleticism, has the best chance at becoming one. If he improves his passing, the star-making process would be expedited.

The outline of a star is apparent in LaVine, but rough edges have to be smoothened for that level to be reached, which is not limited to passing but also defense. Not to dive into the specifics, but he improved as an on-ball defender, but falls asleep off-the-ball, a shortcoming of which he is aware. Per Ben Rubin of The Stepien, passing awareness relates to defensive play recognition; LaVine improving his passing awareness may have a trickle-down effect.

Since the Chicago Bulls matched the Sacramento Kings’ offer sheet last season, LaVine is now on a three-year contract worth $58.5 million. When pitted next to other players in a similar range, such as Caris LeVert, Jeff Teague, Terry Rozier, Julius Randle and Danilo Gallinari, LaVine seems a relative bargain.

Still, Chicago faithful has not seen success since the days of yesteryear, since Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah stole their hearts. John Paxson acknowledges such a sweeping feeling, laying claim to Chicago being a “destination place” for 2020 and 2021 free agents. If LaVine, who was made available at last season’s trade deadline, is not conducive to winning, he may not be part of Chicago’s future.