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Without Patrick Mahomes, what does the AFC playoff picture look like?

By The Action Network

DENVER, COLORADO - OCTOBER 17: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs is escorted off the field after an injury in the first half against the Denver Broncos in the game at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on October 17, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, COLORADO - OCTOBER 17: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs is escorted off the field after an injury in the first half against the Denver Broncos in the game at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on October 17, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /
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Patrick Mahomes’ MRI results turned out to be the “best-case scenario” according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, but the Kansas City Chiefs QB is still reportedly expected to miss three games, shifting the landscape of the NFL.

But how exactly will his absence impact the Chiefs’ postseason path and the rest of the NFL playoff picture?

Our Bet Labs model simulated the rest of the season 10,000 times as if Mahomes were to miss the next 3-4 games. Let’s run through the results.

Projected AFC Playoff Picture

We projected the top four seeds by ranking the most likely division winners by their chances to land the 1-4 seeds. Then we identified teams with the next-highest playoff odds, and assigned the 5-seed to the one with the higher average wins and the 6 to the one with the lower average wins.

1. New England Patriots

  • Chance to make playoffs: 99.90%
  • Chance to win division: 97.50%
  • Chance to secure first-round bye: 93.89%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 33.06%

2. Houston Texans

  • Chance to make playoffs: 82.96%
  • Chance to win division: 63.91%
  • Chance to secure first-round bye: 35.36%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 4.64%

3. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Chance to make playoffs: 89.48%
  • Chance to win division: 84.63%
  • Chance to secure first-round bye: 29.3%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 8.82%

4. Baltimore Ravens

  • Chance to make playoffs: 78.44%
  • Chance to win division: 69.51%
  • Chance to secure first-round bye: 18.45%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 3.51%

5. Buffalo Bills

  • Chance to make playoffs: 70.27%
  • Chance to win division: 2.49%
  • Chance to secure first-round bye: 2.19%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.30%

6. Indianapolis Colts

  • Chance to make playoffs: 55.93%
  • Chance to win division: 29.61%
  • Chance to secure first-round bye: 13.69%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.22%

Current AFC Playoff Picture

  1. New England Patriots
  2. Kansas City Chiefs
  3. Houston Texans
  4. Baltimore Ravens
  5. Buffalo Bills
  6. Oakland Raiders

Kansas City Chiefs Full Postseason Projections

  • Average Wins: 10.14
  • Chance to make divisional round: 72.82%
  • Chance to make conference championship: 40.35%

Seeding Odds:

  • 1: 4.83%
  • 2: 24.47%
  • 3: 33.74%
  • 4: 21.59%
  • 5: 1.69%
  • 6: 3.16%
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