Breaking down each NFL team’s schedule thus far
By Ryan Brown
Halfway through the NFL season, which team has had the most difficult schedule? Here’s the breakdown of how each team got to this point.
With Week 8 officially in the books, we’re about halfway through the 2019 season. Some teams have far exceeded their expectations while others have fallen flat and are already looking to next season. Then there’s the Dolphins.
As we all know, anything can happen in the final half of the season, but let’s take a look at the road each team has gone on to get here. We’ll look at the strength of each of their opponents so far and see just how difficult each team’s road to midseason has been.
We’ll do this using something I’m calling Adjusted Strength of Schedule (ASoS). To calculate the ASoS of each team, I’ll take the combined record of all of their opponents so far, and subtract the games against that team. I’ll use the win percentage of the ASoS record to determine which team has had the most difficult road through midseason of the 2019 NFL season.
We’ll start with the team that’s had the easiest road to midseason according to their ASoS and count down to the team with the hardest first half of the season.
32. New England Patriots (8-0)
Opponents: PIT, MIA, NYJ, BUF, WAS, NYJ, CLE
ASoS: 13-29, .310%
The Patriots defense is historically good and their offense is struggling. The only team New England has played over .500 (the division rival Bills) was also the only team to come even close to beating them. Every other game has been decided by 14 points or more. The remaining schedule gets tough quick for New England, going on the road to Baltimore in Week 9. Can they stay perfect?
31. Buffalo Bills (5-2)
Opponents: NYJ, NYG, CIN, NE, TEN, MIA, PHI
ASoS: 17-30, .362%
The Bills defense has been impressive, but the offense has been lacking. The only times Buffalo scored more than 17 points were against the Giants, Bengals, and Dolphins. They have a good chance at a playoff spot, but they’ll have to improve in scoring against good defenses if they want to keep up.
30. San Francisco 49ers (7-0)
Opponents: TB, CIN, PIT, CLE, LAR, WAS, CAR
ASoS: 17-28, .378%
The only two undefeated teams are in the bottom three for adjusted strength of schedule. Not that they haven’t earned their wins. Good teams should beat bad teams. And like New England, San Francisco has only had one game with a one score difference. They play some tough opponents coming up though, like Green Bay, New Orleans, Baltimore, and Seattle twice.
29. Baltimore Ravens (5-2)
Opponents: MIA, ARI, KC, CLE, PIT, CIN, SEA
ASoS: 17-28-1, .380%
Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram are Nos. 9 and 13 respectively in rushing yards per game this season. The Ravens lead the league in rushing by more than 20 yards per game. Unlike past Ravens teams, it’s the offense carrying this team behind Jackson, their second year quarterback and MVP candidate. Baltimore plays both New England and San Francisco in the next five weeks.
28. Tennessee Titans (4-4)
Opponents: CLE, IND, JAX, ATL, BUF, DEN, LAC, TB
ASoS: 20-31, .392%
It seems like we’ve seen the end of Marcus Mariota in Tennessee, barring an injury from backup Ryan Tannehill who has played surprising well, leading the Titans to two wins in as many starts. Tannehill can earn a starting spot by performing well against a tougher schedule coming up.
27. Los Angeles Chargers (3-5)
Opponents: IND, DET, HOU, MIA, DEN, PIT, TEN, CHI
ASoS: 20-30-1, .402%
The Chargers have lost close games to beatable teams. Every game they’ve played (aside from a blowout over Miami) has been decided by one score. It’s been a disappointing season for a team that was expected by many to make the playoffs. Philip Rivers deserves better.
26. Dallas Cowboys (4-3)
Opponents: NYG, WAS, MIA, NO, GB, NYJ, PHI
ASoS: 19-28, .404%
The Cowboys started the season as one of the hottest teams behind new offensive play caller Kellen Moore, scoring a combined 97 points in three straight wins to open the season. After three tough losses (two versus 7-1 teams and one to the lowly Jets), Dallas may have righted the ship in a blowout win over the division rival Eagles, but the schedule toughens up starting in Week 10 when the Vikings come to Dallas.
25. Minnesota Vikings (6-2)
Opponents: ATL, GB, OAK, CHI, NYG, PHI, DET, WAS
ASoS: 22-30-1, .425%
Kirk Cousins is quietly having an MVP caliber season, posting career best completion percentage (72.1) and passer rating (115.2) through eight games. He’s thrown for 13 touchdowns to only three interceptions. The Vikings have improved significantly since their 2-2 start, but with road games against Kansas City, Dallas, and Seattle on the schedule for three of their next four games, it could be difficult to keep pace with the Packers in the NFC North.