Which first-time Hall of Fame candidates have the best chance at Cooperstown in 2020?

The long shots

A few of this year’s ballot newcomers are also worth bringing up because they’ll be discussed in contention for the 2020 class, though they probably won’t ultimately gain election.

Eric Chavez

If Eric Chavez has any prayer of getting into the Hall of Fame, it will be based on the fact that he was a dominant defensive third baseman during his peak years, as he won the Gold Glove Award six straight times between 2001 and 2006. That’s nothing to sneeze at, but Chavez wasn’t nearly a good enough hitter to get in, as he only hit 260 home runs and drove in 902 runs. He never finished higher than 14th in MVP voting.

Alfonso Soriano

Alfonso Soriano had a great career, rather quietly for someone who played in some big markets. He had 12 straight seasons of at least 20 home runs, on his way to 412 for his career. He also stole at least 30 bases five times. If he were a good defender, he’d have a much stronger case, but he was not good on defense. Meanwhile, in an era when getting on base was so important, he didn’t walk as much as you’d like to see from someone with his power. Soriano is a classic “Hall of Very Good” candidate, but not a Hall of Famer.

Rafael Furcal

Rafael Furcal was one of the game’s best leadoff hitters for a stretch, as he was a decent hitter who got on base a lot. He also stole a lot of bases, while he posted a career defensive WAR of 15.0. Yet he only made three All-Star teams and finished higher than 33rd in MVP voting once, while he only really played in the league for 13 years. It was a nice career, but it won’t be a Hall of Fame one.

Paul Konerko

Amazingly, Paul Konerko only has a career 27.7 WAR. Any case he has would come on the strength of his 439 career home runs and 1,412 RBI to go along with 2,340 hits. Those are great numbers, but they aren’t Hall of Fame numbers. Konerko is similar to another Chicago first baseman (Although Konerko was also a DH) from the other side of town, Mark Grace, in that they are both loved by the fans and had long, successful “very good” careers.

Adam Dunn

The only way that Adam Dunn would have had any chance whatsoever was if he had reached 500 home runs. He only hit 462. That’s impressive, but he didn’t excel in any other area of the game. He’ll get some discussion, but he won’t get in.

Josh Beckett

Some people were already putting Josh Beckett in the Hall of Fame when he was first drafted back in 1999. He had a decent career, but it’s hard to see him getting into the Hall of Fame with just 138 wins and a 3.88 career ERA. He only was an All-Star three times and only placed in Cy Young Award voting twice. He played on some great teams and was part of some big moments, but that won’t be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame.

Other longshots

Also on the ballot for the first time are Brian Roberts, Carlos Pena, Chone Figgins, Raul Ibanez, Brad Penny, J.J. Putz, Jose Valverde, and Heath Bell. None of them have a realistic chance of getting in.